Updating Heat’s draft inventory, what is tradable. Comparing Butler and Wiggins in 12 ways
While the jettisoning of disgruntled Jimmy Butler to Golden State gives the Heat critical clarity about its future, the team’s draft future — for 2025 and well beyond - remains mildly muddled on the day of the NBA’s trade deadline.
For starters, the Heat won’t know until the end of the season — and possibly mid-May — whether it will have no picks, one pick or two first-round picks in June’s NBA Draft.
What’s more, the Heat does not know whether it will have two or three tradable first-round picks during the start of free agency in July.
Here’s where things stand:
▪ 2025 Draft: The pick acquired this week from Golden State will convey to Miami this June if the Warriors pick anywhere from 11 to 30 in the first round. The Warriors would keep the pick this year if they miss the playoffs and finish with a top-10 pick in the mid-May draft lottery. As of Thursday morning, the pick would be tied for 16th in June’s draft.
If the selection doesn’t convey to Miami this year, the same top-10 protections apply to the pick in 2026.
If the Warriors have top-10 picks in 2025 and 2026, then Miami would get Golden State’s first-round pick in 2027, even if it’s the first pick in the draft.
That was the extent of the draft capital received by Miami in the deal that sent Butler to the Warriors and Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson and P.J. Tucker to Miami.
Meanwhile, the Heat will keep its first-round pick in June only if it misses the playoffs. In that missing-the-playoffs situation, Oklahoma City would get the Heat’s first-rounder in 2026 (fallout from the Butler/Heat/76ers trade in 2019) and Charlotte would get the Heat’s first-round pick in 2028, from last year’s Terry Rozier trade.
If the Heat makes the playoffs this season, OKC would get the Heat’s first-round pick in June; Miami would keep its first-round pick in 2026; and the pick due Charlotte would go to the Hornets in either 2027 (if Miami makes the playoffs the previous season) or 2028 otherwise.
So the Heat has a wide range of possibilities for June — one scenario where it could have no first-round picks and another where it could have two lottery picks, with the Heat having an outside chance of a top-three pick if it misses the playoffs.
▪ Tradable firsts: At the moment, the Heat has two tradable first-round picks: the one it’s acquiring from Golden State and a 2030 or 2031 pick.
If the Warriors have a top-10 pick this year and thus keep their pick, Miami would have three tradable first-round picks to use beginning the day after the NBA draft: the Warriors’ pick (which would then be conveyed to Miami in 2026 or 2027), its own 2030 pick and its own 2032 pick.
The Stepien Rule requires teams to have at least one future first-rounder in every other draft.
Teams can trade first-rounders seven years out, with the extra year added on draft night.
If the Heat misses the playoffs and keeps its pick this year, the Heat theoretically could select a player with the intent of trading that player in a prearranged trade, giving Miami essentially four tradable picks for a few hours.
If the Warriors’ pick falls between 11 to 30 this June, Miami would get that pick in June and could use it to facilitate a trade in specific circumstances. For example, if Miami has arranged a trade with a team by draft night, Miami could use Golden State’s selection to pick a player for another team and trade that player and more to that team in early July.
If the Heat gets the Warriors’ first-round pick in June and keeps the player it selects, then Miami would have two tradable first-round picks to offer in July and beyond: in 2030 and 2032.
Butler vs. Wiggins
Here’s how the production of the two players compare this season:
▪ Points: Wiggins 17.6, Butler 17.0.
▪ Rebounds: Wiggins 4.6, Butler 5.2.
▪ Assists: Wiggins 2.3, Butler 4.8.
▪ Steals: Wiggins 0.9, Butler 1.1.
▪ Blocks: Wiggins 0.8, Butler 0.4.
▪ Field-goal percentage: Wiggins 44.4, Butler 54%.
▪ Three-point percentage: Wiggins 37.9, Butler 36.1. Wiggins is 94 for 248 on threes this season, Butler 13 for 36.
▪ Clutch shooting (final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer):
Wiggins has shot 11 for 30 (36.7 percent) and 5 for 13 on threes with 35 points in 72 clutch minutes this season, and Golden State has outscored teams by 19 points in those 72 minutes.
Butler has shot 14 of 25 (56 percent) and 3 for 6 on threes with 33 points in 37 clutch minutes this season, and Miami has outscored teams by six points in those 37 minutes.
▪ Defensive field-goal percentage by the player they’re guarding:
45.4% against Wiggins, 48.1 % against Butler.
Players are shooting 1.4% worse when defended by Wiggins than every other NBA player this season.
Conversely, players are shooting 1.6% better with Butler as their primary defender than against every other NBA player.
▪ Turnovers: Wiggins 1.3, Butler 1.2.
▪ Points and rebounds and assists per 36 minutes: Wiggins 21, 5.5., 2.8… Butler 20, 6.2, 5.6.
▪ ESPN efficiency ratings, using former Grizzlies executive (and current Athletic writer) John Hollinger’s formula: Wiggins 103rd among all NBA players, Butler 13.
Curry on Wiggins, Butler
Golden State Warriors coach Steve Kerr and star guard Stephen Curry spoke about the departure of Wiggins following their 131-128 loss to the Utah Jazz on Wednesday night.
“Wigs just had a baby boy last week, girls in school,” Kerr said.
“Wigs is one of my favorite players I’ve ever coached. Just a beautiful soul, just a wonderful human being. We don’t hang that banner in 2022 without him. Everything he brings every single day, the laughter, the smile, the joy. Just a wonderful human being. So I’m going to miss him.”
Wiggins, who spent parts of six seasons with the Warriors, was selected for his only NBA All-Star Game during the 2021-22 season as a member of the Warriors. He also played an important role in helping Golden State win the NBA title in 2022, averaging 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, one steal and one block per game during that playoff run.
“What he meant to our team and our franchise to help us climb the mountain top again back in 2022,” Curry said. “He changed a lot for us for the better and I hope his experience with us changed a lot for him, as well. He’s got a lot of basketball left in him, obviously.”
Curry said he texted Butler at halftime of Wednesday’s Warriors game against the Utah Jazz to welcome him to the team.
“Being able to work off each other, I’m excited to see what it looks like,” Curry said. “I’m going to watch a lot of Miami film to understand some of the sets that they like to run for him and see what we can kind of transition to our playbook. “
We know who Jimmy is,” Curry said Wednesday night. “He’s been to two Finals, he’s a winner. I understand there’s a lot of drama down there. Who really knows what the story is. We expect to have a motivated and committed Jimmy that’s ready to impact our team for the better. We got to work out the kinks of what it looks like. I’m excited to get to work.”
This story was originally published February 6, 2025 at 11:20 AM.
