How Butler’s escalation of situation puts himself and Heat in major jeopardy
Jimmy Butler’s calculated decision to damage his relationship with the Heat has created a potentially damaging scenario for each party.
For Butler, the decision to act out – resulting in an ongoing seven-game team suspension – seemingly hurts his ability to find a team willing to offer him a max contract or trade enough appealing assets to satisfy the Heat in a deal before the Feb. 6 trade deadline. For the Heat, it could leave them without two lottery picks in a worst-case scenario.
More than a week after the Heat suspended Butler for conduct detrimental to the team, Miami has not been presented with an appealing offer and is planning for Butler to rejoin the Heat for next Friday’s game against Denver, multiple league sources said Thursday.
According to sources, that would change only if an appealing trade offer is made in the next week. In the meantime, the Heat will continue to try to trade him; those efforts have not stopped. But the market has been soft and no team has been willing to offer anything that particularly intrigues the Heat.
A source reiterated that before Butler’s “conduct detrimental to the team” that triggered a suspension, the team had planned to play out the season with Butler, with the hopes of making a playoff run, even with the knowledge that his intention was to opt out of his contract (a $52.4 million player option) for next season.
Miami started looking to trade him only after he formally requested one. The Heat made no attempts to trade him during the offseason.
What’s more, the Heat was strongly led to believe before the season started that Butler would play out this season, be professional and not do anything disruptive.
The Heat never presented Butler with an offer that would extend his contract beyond his $52.4 million player option for next season, in part because of concern about frequency of games missed. Butler made clear he was interested only in a max offer.
Butler’s handling of this has put both parties in jeopardy in two different ways, beyond hurting the trade market for him.
1). How it jeopardizes Butler: Unless Butler comports himself well and gives full effort if he returns to the team, his behavior also could make the Heat less inclined to facilitate a sign-and-trade this summer if Miami doesn’t find a trade it likes before Feb. 6.
The Heat knows that no contender has the cap space to make Butler a max offer (or anything close to it) this summer without needing the Heat’s help to facilitate the transaction.
By not trading Butler before Feb. 6 and potentially refusing to cooperate with Butler in a sign-and-trade, Miami would clear out at least $13 million in cap space ($23 million if Duncan Robinson is released) and $48 million to $58 million in flexibility under the tax line, while leaving Butler in a pickle in July.
If that happens, Butler could either sign a max deal with the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets (if they want him, which is highly questionable) or take well below a max deal with another team, with the Spurs able to clear out $28 million and the Rockets $19 million. Those first-year salaries would be far below the $52.4 million 2025-2026 Heat salary that he intends to opt out of, barring a change of heart.
2). How it jeopardizes Miami:
For Miami, putting Butler on ice through this on-going six-game road trip leaves Miami without one of its best players in a competitive battle to avoid the draft lottery. Miami entered Thursday’s game in Utah at 18-17 and trying to avoid the play-in tournament for a third year in a row.
Miami would keep its 2025 first-round pick if it misses the playoffs. But missing the playoffs this season would be damaging, because the Heat then would be required to send non-lottery protected first-round picks to Oklahoma City in 2026 and Charlotte in 2028 for trades involving Butler (in 2019) and Terry Rozier (last January).
If the Heat makes the playoffs, OKC would get Miami’s first-round pick next June and Charlotte would get the Heat’s 2027 first-round pick (if Miami makes the playoffs in 2026-27) or 2028 first-rounder otherwise.
But if the Heat misses the playoffs this season, OKC would be guaranteed to get the Heat’s first-round pick in 2026 and Charlotte would be assured of receiving Miami’s first-rounder in 2028, even if both are high lottery picks.
Losing the services of a motivated Butler — or not trading for a player who can compensate for his departure — would leave Miami severely diminished while competing with seven other teams (Orlando, Milwaukee, Indiana, Atlanta, Detroit, Chicago and Philadelphia) for essentially five playoff spots, behind Cleveland, Boston and the Knicks – who have created some distance in the Eastern Conference.
By lashing out and forcing the Heat’s hand, Butler has left Miami with a difficult question: Do we try to trade him now to increase our playoff chances so that two future first-round picks don’t lose their lottery protections? (Miami is trying to find an appealing offer.)
Or do we wait until the summer when there could be more trade options for Butler and far more teams with the cap space to help facilitate a three- or four-team trade?
Sensing the Heat is in a bind, other teams have presented Miami with unappealing offers.
“Right now, I think you’re seeing a lot of teams testing just how low they might be able to buy Jimmy Butler for,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said.
If Butler hadn’t tried to publicly force the Heat’s hand, other teams might be less inclined to low ball the Heat.
Keep in mind that there are nine teams that can create significant cap space to facilitate a multiteam Butler trade this summer; there’s only one team that has the cap space to do that now (Detroit).
Among potential suitors, Golden State has decided not to pursue Butler, according to The Athletic. Houston officials have told NBA people that they’re not pursuing Butler. Butler’s camp has informed Memphis that he’s not interested in being traded there.
Phoenix continues to pursue Butler and is trying to find a third team willing to take Bradley Beal to facilitate the trade. But Beal has a no-trade clause and reminder reporters this week that he “holds the cards” on all of this.
The Kings reportedly are not considering offers for guard De’Aaron Fox, who would be a natural target in any Butler discussions. And New Orleans forward Brandon Ingram, who’s considered available in the trade market, remains out with an ankle injury sustained Dec. 7.
This story was originally published January 7, 2025 at 11:06 AM.
