Positive Jimmy Butler trend continues for Heat. But can Butler keep it up?
The Miami Heat is better when Jimmy Butler is aggressive and assertive on the offensive end. That has been true since Butler joined the Heat during the 2019 offseason and it’s still true this season.
During Butler’s first five regular seasons with the team, the Heat went 155-84 when he posted a usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the court) of at least 20 percent. When Butler’s usage rate didn’t reach 20 percent in games that he played in during that time, the Heat went 22-29.
That trend has continued early in Butler’s sixth season with the team, as the Heat is 5-2 when Butler records a usage rate of at least 20 percent this season. Miami is 0-3 this season when Butler’s usage rate falls below 20 percent in games that he played in.
Good thing for the Heat, Butler has been ultra-aggressive in the last two games to lead Miami (7-7) on a mini-two game winning streak to get back to .500 this season. Butler posted a usage rate above 20 percent in both games and turned in his two highest-scoring performances of the season so far during this stretch, serving as the catalyst for the Heat’s 106-89 victory over the Philadelphia 76ers on Nov. 18 and 123-118 overtime victory over the Dallas Mavericks on Sunday night at Kaseya Center.
“I feel like I got to start attacking more often,” Butler said, with the Heat set to close its three-game homestand with a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday (7:30 p.m., TNT) that also represents Miami’s third of four group-play in the NBA’s in-season tournament. “Whenever I’m aggressive like that like the guys want me to be, like [Heat coach Erik Spoelstra] is always telling me to be, it opens up a lot more for everybody else. So if I can spearhead that part of the offense, we’re good.”
After totaling a season-high 30 points and drawing enough fouls to take 13 free throws in Miami’s Nov. 18 win over Philadelphia, Butler returned from the Heat’s five-day break between games to establish a new season-high of 33 points on 11-of-17 shooting from the field and 11-of-16 shooting from the foul line to go with nine rebounds, six assists, one steal and two blocks while closing with a season-high usage rate of 28.7 percent in Sunday’s victory over the Mavericks.
Sunday’s impressive display from Butler included the game-tying basket on a side out-of-bounds play in the final seconds of regulation to force overtime. With the Heat trailing by two points, Butler cut to the basket and took advantage of a defensive miscommunication from the Mavericks to catch the inbounds pass and throw down a game-tying dunk with 4.3 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
“A great player has to make a great play,” Spoelstra said of that game-saving play.
Since returning from a four-game absence earlier this month due to a sprained right ankle, Butler has totaled 63 points on 29 field-goal attempts and 29 free-throw attempts in his first two games back. Those two games mark the 13th time in Butler’s NBA career that he has scored at least 30 points in consecutive games and the fifth time that he has done it with the Heat.
“I mean, he’s a smart player,” Butler’s Heat co-star Bam Adebayo said. “He makes the right play all the time. When it’s all said and done, we feed off of that. We’ve had moments where sometimes it’s Tyler [Herro], sometimes it’s me, sometimes it’s him. Right now, it’s him and we’re behind that.”
The question is whether Butler can sustain something close to this level of play during the long regular season at 35 years old.
Butler, who has played in 10 of the Heat’s first 14 games this season, is averaging 19.2 points, 5.7 rebounds, five assists and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 52.1 percent from the field. Maybe the most encouraging early-season statistic for Butler is his improved finishing around the basket, shooting 70.2 percent from within the restricted area this season compared to 63.9 percent from the area of the court last regular season.
But if history is any indication, it could be hard for Butler to sustain this type of production. LeBron James is the only player in NBA history to average at least 19 points, five rebounds, five assists and one steal per game while shooting 50 percent or better from the field for an entire regular season at age 35 or older, doing it in three separate seasons.
Butler, who can become a free agent this upcoming summer with a $52.4 million player option in his contract for next season, will try to become the second player in league history to join this list.
Based on how much much better the team is when Butler is aggressive, assertive and at his best, the Heat’s hope is he can join that exclusive group.
“He has the highest percentile of processing speed when the ball is in his hands,” Spoelstra said of Butler, who has already helped lead the Heat to two NBA Finals appearances in his first five seasons with the team but has yet to win an NBA title. “That was there our first year. And the uniqueness of how he does it, he can bring this rugged physicality and intensity — toe-the-line intensity — and slow everything down in the moments of truth. That’s part of his genius.”
This story was originally published November 25, 2024 at 10:36 AM.
