How the Heat could move to eighth, fall to 10th or stay ninth. What to know on tiebreakers
Two weeks from tonight (Friday, April 18), the Heat could be playing an elimination play-in game at home or on the road against Chicago or Atlanta or Orlando; could already be in Cancun (or the destination of choice) after a season-ending loss three nights earlier; or could be resting comfortably in a pricey Boston hotel preparing to open the playoffs the next day against the second-seeded Celtics.
Even with just 10 days remaining in the regular season, the possibilities are seemingly endless. What’s set is that the Heat will be participating in the NBA’s play-in round for the third consecutive season.
What’s not set is whether Miami — which sits ninth in the East heading into Saturday night’s home game against Milwaukee — will be playing in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game on Tuesday, April 15, or in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 game on Wednesday, April 16.
The winner of the 7-8 game will be the seventh seed and advance to (very likely) play Boston in the first round of the playoffs. The loser of the 7-8 game will play host to the winner of the 9-10 game on Friday, April 18, for the right to play top-seeded Cleveland in the first round. The Cavs haven’t clinched the No. 1 seed but are five games ahead of Boston with 10 days left in the season.
So the gamut of Heat possibilities, during these next 10 days, run from being eliminated from postseason in the 9-10 game, winning the 7-8 game and having three days to prepare to play Boston, or needing to win a Friday play-in game for the third consecutive season.
Breaking down how the Heat could move down, move up, or stay put in playoff jockeying for playoff seeds.
▪ Moving up to eighth: The No. 9 Heat (35-42) enters the weekend trailing No. 8 Atlanta (36-40) by 1.5 games and No. 7 Orlando (38-40) by 2.5 games.
Overtaking the Magic for seventh - which would mean playing host to the 7-8 play-in game — is unlikely but not entirely impossible.
Catching Atlanta for eighth is far more realistic. Because the Heat and Hawks split their season series, a Heat-Hawks tiebreaker would come down to division record.
Miami would finish with a better division record than the Hawks if Miami beats Washington at Kaseya Center on the final day of the regular season (April 13) and if Orlando beats Atlanta at least once next week.
Miami also would clinch the tiebreaker with the Hawks if it somehow loses to the Wizards but the Hawks lose twice to Orlando. The Magic is 10-3 in the division after splitting the season series with Miami.
Among the paths for Miami to claim the eighth seed:
Miami wins out (Milwaukee, Philadelphia, at Chicago, at a New Orleans team that will be without Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum and at home against Washington) and if Atlanta loses twice, including one of its two games against Orlando.
Besides Orlando, the Hawks’ toughest remaining opponent is the Knicks, who visit Atlanta on Saturday. Atlanta also plays Utah at home and goes to Brooklyn and to Philadelphia.
If the Heat loses to No. 10 Chicago (34-42) next Wednesday, then moving up becomes complicated. The Bulls already have clinched the tiebreaker with Miami by winning the first two of their three meetings this season.
So if the Heat loses to Chicago but wins its four other games, Miami could move to eighth only if the Hawks lose three of their final six games (including at least once to Orlando) and the Bulls lose two among their five other games (Portland on Friday, at Charlotte, at Cleveland, Washington, at Philadelphia).
In that scenario, Miami would be eighth, Atlanta ninth and Chicago 10th.
▪ Staying ninth: This remains a possibility, one that would happen if Miami loses at Chicago but wins its other games and if the Bulls lose two games in the final 10 days and if Atlanta goes 4-2.
It also would happen if Miami wins in Chicago and finishes with a better record than the Bulls but a worse record than the Hawks.
▪ Falling to 10th: If Chicago beats the Heat next Wednesday and loses to Cleveland but wins its other very winnable games (Portland, Charlotte, Washington, Philadelphia), Miami won’t be able to overtake Chicago even if the Heat wins every other game except the Bulls game.
Miami could still move past Atlanta for ninth, in that specific scenario, if the Hawks lose both games to Orlando and lose another (perhaps Saturday vs. the Knicks). But if Atlanta wins four of its last six, Miami would be doomed to 10th in this scenario.
This story was originally published April 4, 2025 at 1:23 PM.
