Again in play-in tournament territory, a look at how the Heat reached this point
This is not where the Miami Heat expected to be with 10 games left in the regular season after making the NBA Finals last season.
For the second straight year, the Heat will spend the final weeks of the regular season working to finish with a top-six seed to avoid the NBA’s play-in tournament.
Last season, the Heat ended up needing to take part in the play-in tourney to get into the NBA playoffs as the Eastern Conference’s No. 8 seed. The rest is history, as the Heat became the first No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals during a non-lockout-shortened season before falling to the Denver Nuggets in the championship series.
The Heat would prefer not to again face the uphill climb that the play-in tourney presents, but that possibility is again a reality for Miami.
The play-in tournament, which is done during the week between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs, features the seventh-through-10th-place teams competing for the final two playoff seeds in each conference.
The Heat is currently in seventh place in the East — just one game behind the sixth-place Indiana Pacers, but also just half-game ahead of the eighth-place Philadelphia 76ers.
“The opportunity is still there for us,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said ahead of Friday night’s matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers (8 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) to close a four-game homestand. “That’s what we have to continue to understand. There can be disappointments during the season, there are ups and downs. You ultimately are where your record says you are. But there’s opportunity in front of us if we can take advantage of it and that’s what we’re focused on right now.”
How did the Heat get here? Here’s a look at what has led the Heat (39-33) to this point through the first 72 games:
▪ Season-long injury issues: The Heat enters Thursday with the fifth-most missed games in the league this season due to injuries at 250 games, according to Spotrac’s injury tracker. This injury problem has led to a lack of continuity and rotation clarity as the playoffs approach. For one, the Heat has set a new franchise record with 35 different starting lineups used this season. Also, the Heat’s leading trio of Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro have been limited to just 21 games together this season, with Miami posting a 10-11 record in those games.
▪ Struggles against the NBA’s best: Not only is the Heat just 17-24 this season against teams that entered Thursday with a winning record, but the Heat is also a dismal 1-11 this season (0-3 vs. Boston Celtics, 0-2 vs. Denver Nuggets, 0-2 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 0-2 vs. Oklahoma City Thunder and 1-2 vs. Milwaukee Bucks) against the teams currently with the NBA’s top five records. But the Heat has managed to build its own winning record by taking care of business against inferior opponents, posting a 22-9 record this season against teams currently with a losing record. The problem is the Heat will only face quality opponents in the playoffs.
▪ The offense has again been shaky: The Heat enters Thursday with the NBA’s 23rd-ranked offensive rating after finishing last regular season with the 25th-ranked offensive rating. The Heat has scored fewer than 100 points in 17 games this season, with a 2-15 record in those games. Only the struggling Charlotte Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies have scored fewer than 100 points in more games than the Heat this season. Those offensive issues have negated some of the Heat’s success on the other end of the court, as Miami entered Thursday with the league’s ninth-ranked defensive rating.
▪ A fourth-quarter problem: The Heat holds the NBA’s second-worst fourth-quarter net rating this season, as it has been outscored by seven points per 100 possessions in the final period. That has led to the Heat losing 39 of the 72 fourth quarters it has played so far this season and is just 15-24 in those 39 games when being outscored in the final quarter. The fourth quarter was a strength for the Heat last season, when it finished with the NBA’s fourth-best fourth-quarter net rating. But that strength has turned into a weakness this season.
▪ Not enough Butler: Butler, 34, has missed 22 games this season. Even when Butler has played, he hasn’t always produced to his high All-NBA standards. The advanced metrics that loved Butler last season don’t love him as much this season. Last season, Butler finished with the NBA’s fifth-best estimated plus-minus on his way to being named to the All-NBA Second Team. This season, Butler ranks 20th in estimated plus-minus and is not in the running for an All-NBA team because he’s not going to reach the 65-game threshold required to be eligible. The Heat needs the All-NBA version of Butler more often than not during the final weeks of the regular season.
▪ A dip in three-point shooting: Yes, the Heat’s three-point shooting percentage for the season (36.7 percent) ranks 13th among the 30 NBA teams. That’s decent and definitely an improvement from last regular season, when the Heat finished with the NBA’s 27th-ranked team three-point percentage at 34.4 percent. But lately, Miami’s three-point shooting has been below average. After the Heat went nine games above. 500 on March 5, the Heat has shot just 32.6 percent from three-point range in the last 11 games. Miami is 4-7 during this rough stretch. It’s not a coincidence that the Heat’s dip in three-point shooting has coincided with injuries to some of the team’s outside shooters like Herro, Kevin Love and Duncan Robinson.
▪ A long skid: The Heat went through a seven-game losing streak in January. It marked the organization’s first seven-game skid since late in the 2007-08 season. This string of seven straight losses took the Heat from 24-16 to 24-23. Since ending that skid, the Heat has gone 15-10 to somewhat regain its footing. But there’s no doubt that this seven-game losing streak set the Heat back this season.
▪ No home-court advantage: The Heat actually holds a better record on the road (21-16) than at home (18-17) this season. The advanced metrics back those records up, too, with the Heat holding the NBA’s 23nd-ranked net rating in home games compared to the league’s 11th-ranked net rating in road games this season. It’s hard to be one of the NBA’s top teams with subpar play at home. The only seven teams with worse net ratings in home games than the Heat this season all have losing records. This is very different than last season when the Heat was 27-14 at home, but was just 17-24 on the road.
This story was originally published March 28, 2024 at 1:21 PM.
