What the data reveals about Heat’s individual defense and who’s struggling. And notes
For four years, the Heat often successfully navigated its thin margin against more skilled offensive teams by playing energetic, maniacal defense.
The rugged, relentless, dependable defense has gone missing, at least during a losing streak that had stretched to seven entering Wednesday night’s home game against Sacramento.
Traditionally a top 10 defensive team, the Heat has slipped to 14th in defensive rating — meaning Miami ranks middle of the pack in points allowed per 100 possessions (114.3).
During this losing streak — Miami’s longest since 2008 — the Heat is 28th in defensive rating, permitting a jaw-dropping 124.2 points per 100 possessions.
Jimmy Butler on Monday cited “being beaten off the dribble consistently” and said ‘lack of defense... is all the way down the line, the starters, the second group.”
Communication problems have been an issue.
Asked this week what defensive scheme the team is best at, Bam Adebayo said: “I feel like our zone. It forces you to communicate. It forces you to do the little things that matter that you can avoid in man to man” defense.
While the NBA’s website does not measure blow-bys — a persistent Heat problem — here are some other metrics that reflect Heat defensive problems, collectively and individually:
▪ Seven Heat rotation players are permitting the player they’re guarding to shoot better than they shoot overall. The disparity is greatest with Terry Rozier (albeit in a small sample size) and Butler.
The player defended by Butler is shooting 50.3 percent; those players are shooting 47.3 percent overall, per NBA.com metrics.
Players defended by Rozier during his first week with the Heat are shooting 57.8 percent; those players are shooting 47.9 percent overall. With Charlotte, Rozier permitted a 49.7 shooting percentage, too high for a point guard.
The five other rotation players who are allowing a higher shooting percentage than what those players shoot overall this season:
Thomas Bryant (54.8 compared to 51.0), Josh Richardson (50 to 46.1), Duncan Robinson (49.9 to 46), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (49.1 to 46.8) and Tyler Herro (47.6 to 46.4).
▪ Though Caleb Martin is one of the few Heat rotation players allowing a lower shooting percentage (42.8) than what those players shoot overall (46.3), he made clear on Tuesday that he’s displeased with his defense.
“What bothers me is I look back on tape and I haven’t been my best self on the defensive end, either,” he said. “I have to get back to getting stops and taking accountability on things I should be better in and things I get paid to do. I need to bring a different type of attention to detail and be the spark guy I need to be.”
Martin, Adebayo (43.2) and Haywood Highsmith (44.8) are the only three Heat players who are permitting the player they’re guarding to shoot below 47 percent this season.
▪ The Heat has only one player in the NBA’s top 90 in “defensive win shares,” a metric that’s essentially a calculation of a player’s defensive value, or the quantifiable amount that the team’s defensive ability increases while the player is on the court.
Adebayo ranks 22nd in the NBA in defensive win shares. The next Heat player on the list is Jaquez Jr., who ranks 92nd in the league.
Butler ranks 107th in this category after finishing 31st in that metric last season.
▪ Only two Heat players have a positive defensive estimated plus/minus.
Adebayo has the best defensive estimated plus/minus on the team at +1.9, which is in the NBA’s 93rd percentile (top seven percent). Highsmith is second-best on the team at +0.3.
Richardson has the worst defensive estimated plus-minus among Heat rotation players at -1.5.
Tyler Herro’s defensive estimated plus/minus is at -0.1, which is slightly better than Butler’s -0.5
Last season, Butler’s defensive estimated plus-minus was a lot better at a team-best +1.8, which ranked in the top 6 percent of NBA players.
▪ Heat opponents are shooting 47 percent on threes during the past four games.
▪ The Heat’s performance in tangible hustle categories has dropped from a season ago.
Miami ranks eighth in the NBA in charges drawn at 0.64 per game this season, compared with second at 1.11 charges drawn per game last season.
The Heat ranks 18th in the NBA in deflections at 13.9 per game, compared with eighth at 14.8 deflections per game last season.
“If the effort is there and the energy is there, all that stuff will take care of itself,” Martin said.
“When we are… the hardest playing team in the gym, nine times out of 10 we’re going to come out of the game with a win. That’s part of our identity. I don’t think we’re being felt as much as we should be on that end.”
THIS AND THAT
▪ The Heat has used 25 different starting lineups and “I can’t imagine how tough that is as a head coach to figure out what’s best for the group, whether it’s defensively, schematics, whatever it is,” Martin said.
“….Let the coach do what he does. That’s what he just got paid to do. He gets paid that amount of money because he’s good at what he does. We need to take care of what we can control and let him do his job and figure out the rest.”
▪ Rozier has gone from losing 18 of his final 21 games with Charlotte to losing four in a row to begin his Heat career.
“It’s the total opposite,” he said of the experience of losing with each franchise. “In Charlotte, you’re kind of used to losing. It’s in the DNA… Over here, it’s the total opposite. Nobody wants to lose. Nobody is fine with it…. This organization, when you lose, it bothers them.”
This story was originally published January 31, 2024 at 10:13 AM.
