Heat mailbag: Does Playoff Jimmy Butler need to make an early appearance this season?
The Miami Herald’s Heat mailbag is here to answer your questions. If you weren’t able to ask this time, send your questions for future mailbags via X (@Anthony_Chiang). You can also email them in to achiang@miamiherald.com.
@FamliGuy: Do you believe the lack of engagement from Jimmy Butler this year is solely due to age?
Anthony Chiang: It’s impossible to know what’s behind Jimmy Butler’s play this regular season until we see him in the playoffs. Butler hasn’t been bad by any means, but he just hasn’t been his usual All-NBA self yet this season. If Butler continues to play at this level in the playoffs, then it will be time to be concerned. Until then, Butler has earned the benefit of the doubt after basically turning into Michael Jordan during multiple playoff runs with the Heat.
But if you want to worry about Butler, here’s one troublesome number from this season. Not only is Butler’s shot volume at the rim down this season, but he’s also shooting just 62 percent at the rim (45th percentile among NBA forwards) this season compared to 68 percent at the rim last regular season.
Even when Butler was cruising through last regular season, the advanced metrics loved him and he was arguably having the best regular season of his career. I even put him in fifth place on my NBA Most Valuable Player ballot last season.
Last season, Butler finished with the NBA’s fifth-best estimated plus-minus and ranked second in win shares per 48 minutes behind MVP Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets.
This season, Butler is not in the top 20 in estimated plus-minus and ranks 20th in win shares per 48 minutes.
Butler is 34 and is in his 13th NBA season. At some point, he’s not going to be able to flip the switch on command. Has that time come? We won’t know the answer to that question until the playoffs.
But one thing is for sure, the Heat could sure use Playoff Jimmy (or something close to it) a little earlier than usual this season.
@WarioChalmers15: How does a team improve its shooting around the rim when every team that defends them packs the paint without much consequence?
Anthony: I wouldn’t say without much consequence, considering the Heat entered Saturday with the NBA’s ninth-ranked team three-point percentage for the season. But recently, you’re correct. The Heat has the league’s 26th-ranked team three-point percentage in January.
But to answer your question, I don’t know if there is a way to fix the Heat’s struggles around the rim. That’s just not a strength for this roster, as it finished last regular season with the NBA’s 18th-ranked shooting percentage from within the restricted area at 65.7 percent and entered Saturday with the second-worst shooting percentage from that area this season at 61.4 percent.
While the addition of guard Terry Rozier may help generate more shots around the rim, which is helpful, he’s not a great finisher either. Rozier is shooting just 57 percent at the rim this season (28th percentile among all guards), according to Cleaning the Glass.
This is one of the big issues that has kept the Heat’s offense from being an efficient unit.
@Brendan_Tobin: Is this Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s team now?
Anthony: Considering the Heat went through its worst stretch in years with Jaquez out, it might be. In all seriousness, the good news is Jaquez is back. Jaquez is expected to make his return in Saturday afternoon’s matchup against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden after missing the last six games with a strained left groin.
