What’s behind the Heat’s fourth-quarter problem this season? A look at the alarming numbers
What was one of the Miami Heat’s biggest strengths last season has turned into one of its biggest weaknesses so far this season.
After being outscored 35-25 in Monday night’s fourth quarter on the way to blowing a 17-point lead in a 112-108 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at Kaseya Center, the Heat has lost the fourth quarter in 19 of the first 27 games. Monday marked the ninth time the Heat has been outscored in the final period by double digits.
As a result, the Heat (15-12) entered Tuesday with the NBA’s third-worst fourth-quarter offensive rating, fourth-worst fourth-quarter defensive rating and second-worst fourth-quarter net rating (outscored by 14.6 points per 100 possessions) this season. Only the Phoenix Suns hold a worse fourth-quarter net rating than the Heat.
“It’s obviously never easy giving up leads and just being OK with it,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said, with the team now making the short trip to Orlando to take on the upstart Magic (16-9) on Wednesday (7 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) before returning to Miami for a two-game homestand. “But that’s part of the business that we’re in. We’re playing against a talented group of guys on the other side that can go on the same kind of runs that we can.”
This is very different than last regular season, when the Heat outscored opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions in the final period to finish with the NBA’s fourth-best fourth-quarter net rating. The Heat had a negative net rating in the first and third quarters, but was one of the league’s top late-game teams on its way to ending last regular season tied for the single-season NBA record for the most wins by five points or less with 24 such victories.
This season, the Heat has a positive net rating in each of the first three quarters but has been hovering around .500 because of its late-game issues. The Heat has already lost six games this season after entering the fourth quarter with a lead.
For perspective, the Heat lost just five games last regular season when entering the fourth quarter with a lead.
“We’re just coming out not going for that final blow, that knockout punch,” Heat rookie Jaime Jaquez Jr. said. “I think we got to start coming out with a different mentality in that fourth quarter and really put them away, especially when we have those leads.”
What are the things behind the Heat’s fourth-quarter problem this season? It’s hard to point to one area with both Miami’s fourth-quarter offense and defense ranked as bottom-five units this season.
“It’s hard to put your thumb on it,” Heat guard Josh Richardson said when asked that question.
In Monday’s loss to the Timberwolves, the Heat was simply outplayed by an elite team on both ends of the court in the fourth quarter.
Minnesota, which holds the Western Conference’s top record at 20-5, scored 35 points on 13-of-21 (61.9 percent) shooting from the field, 4-of-10 (40 percent) shooting from three-point range and 5-of-6 (83.3 percent) shooting from the foul line while committing zero turnovers in Monday’s fourth quarter. Timberwolves star guard Anthony Edwards totaled 10 of his game-high 32 points in the final period.
On the other end, the Heat was limited to 25 points on 9-of-25 (36 percent) shooting from the field, 4-of-10 (40 percent) shooting on threes and 3-of-4 (75 percent) shooting from the foul line in the fourth quarter. With Heat star Jimmy Butler going scoreless in the final period, the Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense led by the length of three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert held the Heat to just 4-of-14 (28.6 percent) shooting from inside the paint in the fourth quarter.
“Gobert had a massive impact in that fourth quarter, as we all saw,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said when asked what went wrong down the stretch against the Timberwolves. “He was a deterrent on basically whatever action we were running. You have to be extremely detailed. You have to be intentional and then find ways to be aggressive and then make the right decision over and over and over and over.
“And then Anthony Edwards was really just terrific down the stretch and he did it in a lot of different ways.”
Some of the Heat’s fourth-quarter issues can be explained by the amount of injuries the team has already dealt with in the first two months of the season.
Those injuries have forced the Heat to use 15 different starting lineups in the first 27 games while also preventing the Heat from finding a true go-to late-game combination. With so many players in and out, Miami’s most used fourth-quarter lineup this season (Richardson, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Jaquez and Orlando Robinson) doesn’t include any members of the Heat’s leading trio (Bam Adebayo, Butler and Herro) and has logged just 23 minutes together.
In fact, the Heat’s leading trio of Adebayo, Butler and Herro have played just 36 fourth-quarter minutes together so far this season because of injuries. But that small sample has not been good, with Miami outscored by 34.2 points per 100 possessions when those three have been on the court in the final period this season.
“Just being able to sustain for the full 48 minutes with different lineups and different units,” Herro said. “Obviously, we have guys coming back, with me and Bam, and some roles changes. But we just have to figure out a way to make everybody feel like they’re playing at their best with the guys that we have on the court because we have a very deep team with a bunch of different guys that can affect the game on both sides of the ball.”
The returns of Adebayo and Herro will certainly help the Heat address some of its late-game concerns, but now Butler has been ruled out for Wednesday’s game in Orlando after straining his calf during Monday’s loss to the Timberwolves. Butler has been labeled by the team as day-to-day.
Adebayo returned to the Heat’s starting lineup on Monday after missing the previous seven games with a left hip contusion. He finished the Heat’s loss to the Timberwolves with 22 points on 10-of-22 shooting from the field, six rebounds, six assists, one steal and one block in 36 minutes.
Herro also made his return to the Heat’s starting lineup on Monday after missing the previous 18 games with a sprained right ankle. He closed the Heat’s loss to the Timberwolves with 25 points on 10-of-18 shooting from the field, 1-of-6 shooting from three-point range and 4-of-4 shooting from the foul line, three rebounds, two assists and two steals in 33 minutes.
“We just want to have all of our weapons available,” Spoelstra said. “We’re [seventh] in the East right now. We like the way we’ve been playing, but this is not where we ultimately want to be. So we want to have our guys and put some things together, and hopefully put together some good weeks and months and prepare for this second season.”
The bottom line is for the Heat to get to where it wants to be, the fourth-quarter numbers must drastically improve.
This story was originally published December 19, 2023 at 11:26 AM.
