Why Spoelstra remains optimistic that Heat offense will improve. And latest on Butler’s status
While not yet playing at an elite level like last season’s unit, the Miami Heat’s defense has not been the problem this season. The Heat’s biggest issues through the first two months of the season have come on the offensive end.
The Heat entered Sunday ranked eighth in the NBA in defensive rating and 26th among the 30 teams in offensive rating to reach Christmas with a sub-.500 record of 16-17. The last time Miami’s offense closed a regular season this far down the rankings was the last time it also missed the playoffs — in 2018-19 when the Heat finished at No. 26 in offensive rating.
Despite the Heat’s ongoing offensive struggles, coach Erik Spoelstra remains optimistic about the unit’s potential because of the recent improvement he’s noticed in the team’s offensive process.
“I think as we get guys back [from injury], I think we’re going to have a real good balance of paint pressure and threes,” Spoelstra said, with the Heat looking to get back on track Monday against the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) at FTX Arena after opening its four-game homestand with two losses. “I think that synergy between the two is already happening. It hasn’t necessarily affected the result. But the process, I feel much better about this process the last two or three weeks than I did six weeks ago.”
A healthier roster would certainly help lift the Heat’s offensive numbers. Miami entered Sunday with the second-most missed games in the NBA (124 missed games) this season due to injury, according to Spotrac.
The metrics say simply having star Butler, who has missed 12 of the first 33 games this season, in the lineup more consistently would make the Heat’s offense better. Butler is questionable for Monday’s matchup against the Timberwolves in the wake of spraining his ankle in Friday’s loss to the Indiana Pacers.
The Heat has scored 114.7 points per 100 possessions with Butler on the court this season for an offensive rating that would rank eighth-best in the NBA among teams this season. Without Butler on the court, Miami has scored just 104 points per 100 possessions for an offensive rating that be the worst in the league by far.
“There’s some better things happening for us offensively,” Spoelstra said. “... When we start to get guys back together, I think there’s going to be a great balance between our rim pressure, paint pressure and our three-point shooting. When we have guys out, it’s just by any means necessary and if other teams know that we’re just tapping into one specific part of the menu, it becomes a little bit easier to defend.”
The relationship between the Heat’s paint touches and three-point shooting is clear. Miami is attempting the sixth-fewest shots (23.2 per game) at the rim in the NBA this season in part because it passes the ball on the fifth-highest percentage (28.2 percent) of its paint touches.
The drive-and-kick action helps generate many of the Heat’s three-point attempts. But in order for that drive-and-kick game to be at its best, Miami needs its best attackers like Butler, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo healthy and available.
Then more three-pointers have to go in for that process to pay off, as the Heat entered Sunday ranked 21st in the NBA in team three-point percentage at 34.4 percent this season. Miami closed last regular season as the league’s top three-point shooting team at 37.9 percent on its way to finishing with the 12th-best offensive rating and as the Eastern Conference’s top playoff seed.
Spoelstra remains optimistic the Heat’s offense will get better as the season goes on and the roster gets healthier. Whether that optimism is warranted will be revealed in the coming weeks and months.
“I do like the way things have been progressing and trending the last three weeks,” Spoelstra said. “I just feel like we’re getting more intentional, purposeful with our execution and understanding what we’re trying to get accomplished. Some of the rotating lineups, that can affect a little bit of rhythm and flow. But in terms of our execution, I think we’ve been able to withstand a lot of those moving parts and I think that’s, from a coaching standpoint, a positive.”
INJURY UPDATE
The Heat listed Butler (right ankle sprain) and Adebayo (right shoulder sprain) as questionable for Monday’s game against Minnesota.
Vincent (left knee effusion) and Udonis Haslem (right Achilles’ tendinosis) also are questionable. Caleb Martin (left ankle sprain) is listed as probable.
Dewayne Dedmon (left foot plantar fasciitis) and Omer Yurtseven (left ankle surgery) have been ruled out.
And as players return from injury, the rotation decisions will get tougher for the Heat’s coaching staff.
That was the case in Friday’s loss to the Pacers when the Heat had 13 available players with Martin, Butler, Vincent and Lowry all returning from injury.
On Friday, Duncan Robinson and Vincent were the two semi-regulars who were left out of the bench mix. Duncan Robinson had played in each of the previous four games and Vincent had played in 19 of the first 20 games he had been available for prior to missing the previous eight games because of a knee injury.
Along with using its preferred starting lineup of Lowry, Herro, Butler, Martin and Adebayo for just the 12th game this season, the Heat went with a bench rotation of Oladipo, Max Strus, Orlando Robinson and Haywood Highsmith against the Pacers. Orlando Robinson, who is on a two-way contract, played as Miami’s backup center with Dedmon out.
After Friday’s loss, Spoelstra made clear that the Heat’s rotation is far from set.
“What I told the team before we met [Friday] because of the time, I didn’t even know who was going to be available,” Spoelstra said. “We had three guys who were going to try to warm up with the intention to play. Two of them actually did make themselves available. One couldn’t go [Friday] in Dewayne. So I said, look there’s a lot of moving parts, I can’t do role definition right now 90 minutes before the game and we’re just going to have to figure this out and try to get this win and we’ll figure out the rotation as we get going.
“Gabe was available and we all really appreciate that. We’ll take a couple days to figure out how we’ll get this rotation now and then we’ll just figure it out.”
This story was originally published December 25, 2022 at 10:01 AM.
