As Heat returns home after 4-0 trip, three-point shooting regression remains hard to explain
It’s hard to explain the Miami Heat’s three-point shooting struggles this season. Even coach Erik Spoelstra has trouble diagnosing the three-point shooting regression that has helped push the Heat’s offense to the bottom half of the NBA rankings through the first two months of the season.
“I can’t,” Spoelstra said when asked to explain the Heat’s inefficient production from three-point range. “Eventually I believe it will turn and that’s not coach speak.”
The Heat’s three-point shooting finally appeared to start trending in the right direction last week, as it shot 38.3 percent from beyond the arc in the last three games. That span includes the Heat’s road win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Wednesday, when Miami hit 24 threes to set a new franchise record for the most three-pointers made in a game.
But the Heat still entered Monday ranked 23rd in team three-point percentage at 34.3 percent this season. Miami closed last regular season as the NBA’s top three-point shooting team at 37.9 percent on its way to finishing the regular season as the Eastern Conference’s top playoff seed and reaching the East finals.
“I think the last couple games, actually for a little bit of time, there’s been a little bit more intent of getting to our actions and finding the open guy without missing the moment,” Spoelstra said, with the Heat (16-15) coming off a perfect 4-0 trip to begin a four-game homestand on Tuesday against the Chicago Bulls (7:30 p.m., Bally Sports Sun). “There were a lot of one-more passes, good to great. And then our shooters weren’t passing up open shots.
“Earlier in the season, we were missing those moments or delivering the ball not on time, not on target and our shooters weren’t able to get those rhythm looks. When we get our shooters in flow, in-rhythm open looks, they’re great shooters. This is not something that we’re just trying to drive a narrative. They’re great shooters. We all know it. We just need to do a better job of moving the ball and finding them when they’re open.”
That’s what makes this season’s regression hard to explain: The inefficient three-point shooting is coming from essentially the same group of “great shooters” who made the Heat the most efficient outside shooting team last season.
Each of the Heat’s top three-point shooters has taken a step back this season except Tyler Herro, who is shooting a team-best 41.2 percent from beyond the arc this season with the help of 24 made threes in four games last week.
Caleb Martin is shooting 39.6 percent from three-point range this season after shooting 41.3 percent from deep last season.
Kyle Lowry is shooting 35.3 percent on threes this season after shooting 37.7 percent from beyond the arc last season.
Max Strus is shooting 33.5 percent from deep this season after shooting 41 percent from three-point range last season.
Duncan Robinson is shooting 32 percent from beyond the arc this season after making 37.2 percent of his threes last season.
Gabe Vincent is shooting 29.7 percent from three-point range this season after converting on 36.8 percent of his threes last season.
In addition, the Heat is shooting just 33.2 percent on 24.6 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game this season, compared to 38.1 percent on 24.7 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game last season.
“It’s just how we’re getting the shots that we get,” Strus said in an effort to explain the Heat’s three-point shooting issues. “That’s the important thing for us and how we play. It’s just we got to get more that are within the flow and rhythm of the offense instead of forced three-pointers and ones that are coming off ball screens at the end of the clock. I think if we come together more and have a better rhythm and flow offensively, I think it will all click.”
The Heat entered Monday with assists on the NBA’s seventh-lowest percentage of its made threes this season at 78.3 percent. Miami assisted on 84.9 percent of its made threes last season.
“I think that we just play well off the flow,” Martin said. “We get three-point shots off how we flow and how we’re clicking. ... There’s always a stretch like this that teams go through every year. Obviously, I’m not going to downplay it because you don’t want it to snowball. We just know what we’re doing and we know how to get back to what we were doing.”
Martin also believes the scouting report on the Heat’s three-point shooters has improved after last season’s success.
“Teams are preparing for certain guys who weren’t prepared for last year,” Martin said. “So obviously, looks were easier last year, especially in the second unit. Guys were getting great looks and now you see teams are doubling Tyler, running Max off the line before he even touches the ball. So we’re just adjusting, man. You got guys who haven’t seen that a ton in their careers and this is the start of it. So it’s an adjustment.”
Even with the Heat riding a season-long four-game winning streak to get above .500 for the first time this season at the 31-game mark, coaches and players know the offense needs to improve to get to where they want to get to.
The Heat entered Monday with the NBA’s fifth-worst offensive rating, scoring 109.5 points per 100 possessions.
Improved three-point shooting and process in generating those opportunities over the final four months of the regular season would certainly help move that number in the right direction, especially considering how many threes Miami puts up. Three-pointers represent 39.1 percent of the Heat’s shot attempts, which is the seventh-highest percentage in the league.
“I just think overall our flow, our rhythm, the consistency of that has been a little bit up and down,” Spoelstra said. “Some of that, to be frank, has been the rotating lineups and all that. We’re not making an excuse for that by any means. So we’re just trying to work at it and get guys more comfortable, get guys in rhythm and understanding what we’re trying to accomplish and then how each guy can help the next guy get an open shot. We’ll get there.
“We’re all aware that the overall offensive rating doesn’t look awesome. But there are times where you can see a vision of what it’s supposed to look like. We just need to do it more consistently.”
INJURY UPDATE
The Heat listed Lowry (knee), Martin (ankle) and Udonis Haslem (Achilles) as questionable for Tuesday’s home game against Chicago. Jimmy Butler (knee) and Dewayne Dedmon (foot) are probable.
Vincent (knee), Omer Yurtseven (ankle surgery) and Jamal Cain (on G-League assignment) are out.
This story was originally published December 19, 2022 at 9:41 AM.
