Why has Heat regressed after reaching East finals last season? A look at what’s been different
There’s one question at the center of the Miami Heat’s struggles and inconsistent play so far this season.
Why has a Heat team returning 13 players from a roster that finished just one win short of reaching the NBA Finals last season taken such a big step back a few months later to begin this season?
The Heat hit a new low after falling to the rebuilding San Antonio Spurs 115-111 on Saturday at FTX Arena to drop to 12-15 this season. The Spurs entered the game with the NBA’s second-worst offensive rating, worst defensive rating and worst net rating.
It marked the Heat’s second loss to a team at the bottom of the standings in three games, as Miami also fell to the struggling Detroit Pistons at home on Tuesday. The Pistons entered Sunday with the worst record in the NBA.
“That’s part of the process of this league is sometimes going through some pain,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said following Saturday’s loss to the Spurs. “Hopefully this pain will drive us to a higher level. We need to get to a higher level, we need to get to a better level collectively. That’s what I’m hoping. Frustration, pain, anger, whatever adjective you want to fill in there, hopefully that drives us to a better place as we move forward.”
Next up for the Heat is a four-game trip that begins Monday against the Indiana Pacers (7 p.m., Bally Sports Sun).
“Just sticking together,” Heat guard Tyler Herro said when asked what the conversations have been like in the locker room. “Put as much as you can into the team and just continue to come together. It’s easy to point fingers right now at this time. But I think if we stick together and continue to work through this, we’ll continue to get better.”
Injury issues haven’t helped Miami. Entering Sunday, Heat players had combined to miss the seventh-most games in the NBA this season because of injury, according to Spotrac.
The bad news for the Heat is it entered Sunday already nine games out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference standings. The good news for the Heat is it entered Sunday just 3.5 games behind the fourth spot in the East with four months of regular-season games left to play.
“I shouldn’t say I’m not worried,” Heat wing Jimmy Butler said. “I don’t think that’s the right terminology for it. But like we show flashes of what we can be and who we are. It’s just damn, whenever we get away from that, it looks bad. At the end of the day, we got to be honest with ourselves and everybody has to be better — one through however many people we got on this roster.”
Here are five things that have trended in the wrong direction for the Heat so far this season:
The defense has not been elite: The Heat’s defense was a reliable and important part of its winning formula last season. Miami’s defense has been far less reliable this season.
After finishing with the NBA’s fourth-best defensive rating (allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions) last regular season, the Heat has been mediocre on that end of the court this season to enter Sunday with the league’s 12th-best defensive rating (allowing 111.7 points per 100 possessions).
This is an unusual place for the Heat to be since it has finished with a top-10 defensive rating in six of the past seven seasons.
“I just think we got to get back to not worrying about offense, taking care of the defensive end because whenever we play hard on that side of the ball and we’re getting stops and we’re getting into the open floor, everybody is going to get the ball and you don’t got to worry about it,” Butler said. “We just got to figure out a way to get some stops.”
In addition, the Heat’s man-to-man defense has been far worse than the overall numbers indicate.
The Heat is allowing just 0.88 points per possession while playing zone this season, according to Synergy Sports. Miami has played the most zone defense in the NBA.
The Heat’s man scheme is allowing 1.03 points per possession this season, which is the highest mark in the NBA. Miami’s man defense allowed 0.95 points per possession last season.
Three-point shooting regression: The Heat closed last regular season as the NBA’s top three-point shooting team at 37.9 percent. But the Heat hasn’t been close to as good of an outside shooting team this season, entering Sunday ranked 22nd in team three-point percentage at 34 percent.
The Heat is shooting just 33 percent on 23.9 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game this season, compared to 38.1 percent on 24.7 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts per game last season.
The Heat is also shooting 35.9 percent on 10.6 pull-up three-point attempts per game this season, compared to an NBA-best 37.2 percent on 10.5 pull-up three-point attempts per game last season.
Each of the Heat’s top three-point shooters has taken a step back this season except Caleb Martin, who is shooting a team-best 42 percent from beyond the arc through the first 27 games.
Herro is shooting 38.1 percent from three-point range this season after shooting 39.9 percent from deep last season.
Kyle Lowry is shooting 35.3 percent on threes this season after shooting 37.7 percent from beyond the arc last season.
Max Strus has hit 35 percent of his threes this season after shooting 41 percent from three-point range last season.
Duncan Robinson is shooting 30.8 percent from deep this season after making 37.2 percent of his threes last season.
Gabe Vincent has converted on 29.7 percent of his three-point attempts this season after shooting 36.8 percent from beyond the arc last season.
The bench is not among the NBA’s best: After closing last regular season as the the NBA’s highest-scoring bench at 40.5 points per game, the Heat entered Sunday with the second-lowest scoring bench in the league at 26.1 points per game this season.
The Heat’s reserves have also combined to shoot just 41.6 percent from the field and 30.9 percent from three-point range to post a plus/minus of minus-62 this season. Miami bench players combined to shoot 46.3 percent from the field and 39.1 percent from three-point range to record a plus/minus of plus-97 last season.
The Heat bench’s noticeable dip in scoring and shooting from last season can be explained by Herro’s promotion to the starting lineup. Herro was the league’s leading bench scorer at 20.8 points per game and became the first player in franchise history to be named the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year last season.
The fact that Heat guard Victor Oladipo was not a bench option for the first 24 games this season because of a knee injury hasn’t helped either. He only returned a few games ago.
In addition, three consistent members of the Heat’s bench rotation — Dewayne Dedmon, Strus and Vincent — have all taken a step back in their offensive efficiency this season.
During Saturday’s loss to the Spurs, Strus did not play in the second half. Instead, Spoelstra opted to use Robinson off the bench in Strus’ place.
When asked about the decision to sit Strus in Saturday’s second half, Spoelstra said: “That was a coach’s decision.”
When Bam Adebayo went to the bench last season, the Heat still managed to record a positive net rating. When Butler went to the bench last season, the Heat also still found a way to post a positive net rating.
That hasn’t been the case this season, with Miami being outscored by 10.4 points per 100 possessions when Adebayo isn’t in the game and 5.3 points per 100 possessions when Butler isn’t playing.
The Heat isn’t pulling away from teams: The Heat has played in 18 clutch games this season, which is the second-most in the NBA entering Sunday. Miami, which is 9-9 in such games, is on pace to play in 54 clutch games.
That’s much more than last season, when the Heat finished with a 23-15 record in 38 clutch games.
A clutch game is defined as a game that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.
The Heat’s clutch winning percentage is not nearly as good as last season’s, but it’s the fact that it has already played so many close games that is eye-opening.
Miami has had trouble pulling away from teams this season, with just two double-digit wins through the first 27 games for a pace that would have them at six double-digit victories at the end of the regular season. The Heat closed last regular season with 31 double-digit wins.
“I would just say, we think we’re that good that we can figure it out at the end and then not do right the entire game,” Butler said when asked why the Heat has played so many close games this season. “... I think [Udonis Haslem] said it best, ‘We ain’t that good. We can’t afford to play a 45-minute game or 47-minute game. We need all 48.’”
The ball movement has not been as sharp: The Heat’s offense has been built around quality ball and body movement in recent seasons. The ball movement has not been as good this season.
The Heat has assisted on 61.2 percent of its made shots this season, which is the 13th-most in the NBA entering Sunday.
Miami assisted on 64.4 percent of its made shots last season, which was the fifth-most in the league.
Add in the three-point shooting struggles and the Heat entered Sunday with the NBA’s sixth-worst offensive rating (scoring 109.7 points per 100 possessions) this season. Miami finished last regular season ranked 12th with an offensive rating of 113 points scored per 100 possessions.
ROSTER AND INJURY NEWS
The Heat waived guard Dru Smith from his two-way contract to bring back center Orlando Robinson on a two-way deal on Sunday. Smith and Robinson have been taking turns as the Heat’s second two-way contract player alongside two-way contract forward Jamal Cain.
This is the second time this season that Robinson has been signed to a two-way contract by the Heat. He’s expected to join the Heat in Indianapolis for Monday’s game against the Pacers.
Robinson, who went undrafted this year out of Fresno State, has been dominant in the G League this season. He has averaged 22.4 points and 12.7 rebounds per game for the Heat’s developmental affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce.
Two-way contracts do not count toward the salary cap, with the Heat remaining just about $200,000 under the luxury tax threshold.
As for the Heat’s injury report for Monday’s road game against the Pacers, Vincent (knee), Omer Yurtseven (ankle), Cain (G League) and Nikola Jovic (G League) have been ruled out.
Dedmon (foot) is listed as questionable.
Butler (knee), Herro (ankle), Oladipo (knee), Robinson (ankle) and Strus (shoulder) are probable to play.
This story was originally published December 11, 2022 at 12:24 PM.
