Why Heat is confident 3-point shooting ‘floodgates’ will soon open despite early struggles
When Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra and players have been asked to explain the team’s three-point shooting struggles early this season, there’s been one consistent theme within their answers.
“We got some great looks tonight and we just missed shots,” guard Kyle Lowry said following the Heat’s 117-112 overtime home win against the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night despite shooting just 10 of 36 (27.8 percent) on threes.
“I feel like we like we had a lot of great shots tonight and a lot of them didn’t fall,” Heat center Bam Adebayo also said late Thursday night.
The numbers back up those answers, as the Heat (5-7) entered Friday ranked 20th in the NBA with a team three-point percentage of 33.8 percent through the first 12 games of the season. That’s a big step back after Miami closed last regular season as the NBA’s top three-point shooting team at 37.9 percent on its way to clinching the Eastern Conference’s top playoff seed before making it all the way to the East finals.
“I definitely feel like we’re getting open looks, we’re getting great shots and we live and die with the open ones,” Adebayo said, with the Heat again facing the Hornets (3-10) on Saturday at FTX Arena (8 p.m., Bally Sports Sun) as part of the teams’ set of back-to-back games against each other in Miami.
According to NBA tracking stats, a league-high 14.3 percent of the Heat’s threes have been classified as “open” (defined as when the closest defender is four to six feet away from the shooter). Miami has made 37.4 percent of those “open” three-point looks, which is the NBA’s 10th-highest three-point percentage on those type of shots.
The big drop-off, though, has been on the Heat’s “wide open” three-point looks.
Only 11.4 percent of Miami’s three-point shots have been labeled as “wide open” (defined as when the closest defender is more than six feet away from the shooter), which is the third-lowest frequency in the NBA. The Heat has shot just 28.2 percent from beyond the arc on those “wide open” shots — only the Los Angeles Lakers have been more inefficient on those type of looks this season.
The number of “wide open” threes the Heat is getting this season is not far off from how many Miami generated last season, when 12.6 percent of its threes were classified as “wide open.” The difference is the Heat shot an efficient 40.6 percent on those shots last season, compared to under 30 percent through the first 12 games this season.
“You just have to trust that process and continue to try to generate the looks that are in our strength zone,” Spoelstra said. “The last four or five games, I felt better about our offense even if we haven’t necessarily made those kind of open shots. I always look at it like, can you generate those open shots? Those floodgates are going to come open soon enough and it’s just like I was telling our team this morning: There’s going to be a time too where those floodgates break open with that second unit, where I don’t even have to put the starters back in. We’re that close to that happening.”
Heat guard Tyler Herro is shooting a team-best 55.6 percent on “wide open” threes this season. But others on the roster haven’t been so efficient on those opportunities: Duncan Robinson has shot 37.5 percent, Lowry has shot 36 percent, Jimmy Butler has shot 35.7 percent, Max Strus has shot 27.3 percent, Gabe Vincent has shot 25 percent and Caleb Martin has shot 23.1 percent on “wide open” threes this season.
“I like that mental discipline of having some losses, but generating better looks and better things offensively and then staying with it,” Spoelstra said. “That takes some discipline as a team and then you build the right habits and then eventually you start to knock down those shots. It’s still way too early to judge whether guys are making open shots or not. The toughest thing in this league is can you get enough open shots.”
The Heat believes its generating enough quality looks, but just not enough have gone in yet.
It’s important that turns around because three-pointers are a big part of Miami’s winning formula. The Heat closed last season with a nearly perfect 32-2 record when shooting 40 percent or better from deep and was just 32-34 when shooting worse than 40 percent from three-point range.
The Heat has shot 40 percent or better on threes in just one of its first 12 games this season. Miami is confident that it will hit that threshold more frequently moving forward because of its personnel and the quality shots it has consistently generated recently.
“We’ll have a couple games where we’re just bombing away and making them all and we’ll have a 45 percent three-point game, and shoot 45 total and make 45 percent of them,” Lowry said. “That would be one of those games. But we just got to continue to work the game and work our offense and just keep having confidence.”
VINCENT TIME
Vincent played the entire fourth quarter and overtime period in Thursday’s win over the Hornets. He has now logged 116 fourth-quarter minutes this season, which is the fourth-highest total in the NBA behind only Adebayo (129 minutes), Atlanta’s Dejounte Murray (118 minutes) and Brooklyn’s Royce O’Neale (117 minutes).
Vincent, who went undrafted in 2018, also hit four straight clutch free throws in the final 10 seconds of overtime to extend the Heat’s lead from one to five and clinch the win for Miami. He has made 28 consecutive free throws in the fourth quarter and overtime periods, a streak that began at the start of last season.
“Gabe is not scared. Gabe is built for this,” Butler said. “He’s had an incredible journey and path to get to where he is today, so it’s been way more difficult than two free throws at the end of the game. I love Gabe. He plays so hard, he plays the right way, he tries to do right by everybody. To me, even sometimes that’s wrong because he’s very, very unselfish as well and I’m so glad that he’s on my team because he saves my tail on a lot of possessions both offensively and defensively.”
HEAT AVAILABILITY REPORT
The Heat sent two-way contract guard Dru Smith to its G League affiliate, the Sioux Falls Skyforce, on Friday. But the Heat also took a player from the Skyforce’s roster, recalling two-way contract forward Jamal Cain.
Cain, who has yet to play for the Heat this season and has been active for just three of the team’s first 12 games, is expected to be available for Saturday’s matchup against the Hornets. He’s only eligible to be on the Heat’s active list for as many as 50 regular-season games under the NBA’s two-way contract rules, with the rest of his playing time having to come in the G League.
Cain has averaged 13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds and 2.3 assists in three games with the Skyforce this season.
The Heat will be without Smith (G League assignment), Victor Oladipo (left knee tendinosis) and Omer Yurtseven (left ankle impingement) on Saturday against the Hornets. Miami listed Dewayne Dedmon (left foot plantar fasciitis) Tyler Herro (sprained left ankle) as questionable.
The Hornets will again be without LaMelo Ball (sprained left ankle), Gordon Hayward (left shoulder surgery) and Cody Martin (left knee procedure) against the Heat. Charlotte listed Dennis Smith Jr. (sprained left ankle) as questionable.
This story was originally published November 11, 2022 at 11:58 AM.
