Even with most of roster back, questions surrounding Heat remain entering training camp
Even with most of last season’s roster that finished one win short of reaching the NBA Finals intact, there are still a few big questions surrounding the Miami Heat entering the new season.
With the Heat holding media day on Monday at FTX Arena before opening training camp on Tuesday in the Bahamas, 13 players from last season’s roster are back. That list includes Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, Victor Oladipo, Caleb Martin, Tyler Herro, Dewayne Dedmon, Udonis Haslem, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Omer Yurtseven and Haywood Highsmith.
The only new player who was signed by the Heat to a standard contract this offseason is rookie Nikola Jovic, who was selected by Miami in the first round of this summer’s draft.
This all comes following a summer full of trade rumors swirling around the Heat, including a well-documented pursuit of Brooklyn Nets superstar Kevin Durant. But none of those rumored deals came to fruition.
Here are five Heat questions that will be answered in the coming weeks and months:
Will a Herro extension get done before the deadline?
This is one of the biggest questions looming over the Heat (and Herro) entering training camp. Herro, who will earn $5.7 million this upcoming season in the final year of his rookie deal, is eligible this offseason to sign a contract extension with the Heat worth as much as $188 million over five seasons with a first-year salary (2023-24) of $32.5 million. He can sign for five years — instead of four — only if he gets a max contract.
The deadline for Herro and the Heat to strike a deal on an extension is Oct. 17 — the final day before the start of the regular season. If an extension isn’t agreed to, he will become a restricted free agent next summer.
It seems like a clear-cut decision for the Heat to get an extension done with Herro, a 22-year-old rising star, prior to the deadline. Herro is already one of Miami’s top players, still has room to grow and could be promoted to a starting role after becoming the first player in franchise history to win the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year award last season.
The issue is that if Herro signs an extension with the Heat, he would essentially be untradeable until the 2023 offseason. First-round picks (Herro was a first-round pick in 2019) who receive extensions before their fourth NBA seasons are subject to the “Poison Pill rovision,” which would make it difficult for the Heat to include Herro in a trade until July 1, 2023.
Recent history with players of or close to Herro’s caliber entering their extension window indicates his extension could fall in the range a four-year contract worth around $25 million per season.
Who will replace P.J. Tucker at power forward?
Even with nearly the entirety of last season’s roster returning, this is one hole the Heat did not address this summer. Tucker, who signed with the Philadelphia 76ers as a free agent, is the only rotation player from last season’s team who is not back.
At 6-5 and 245 pounds, Tucker thrived as the Heat’s starting power forward last season because of his unique combination of agility, strength and smarts that allowed him serve as one of the team’s top screeners, space the floor as an efficient corner three-point shooter and also effectively guard nearly every position on the court.
The Heat doesn’t seem to have that type of player on its roster following Tucker’s departure. Martin could be as close as it gets as a plus-defender who can guard multiple positions and also shot 41.3 percent from three-point range last season, but is undersized as a power forward at 6-5 and 205 pounds.
Behind Martin, the Heat has developmental forwards in Highsmith, Jovic and two-way contract player Darius Days. But Highsmith has appeared in just 24 regular-season games during his NBA career, and Jovic and Days are rookies.
Butler could also play as a small-ball power forward during stretches.
Another option for the Heat is to play two bigs together more often this season as it searches for answers in the frontcourt, especially with three rotation-worthy centers on the roster in Adebayo, Dedmon and Yurtseven.
How will Lowry look entering his 17th season?
With last season’s roster essentially returning intact minus Tucker, the Heat needs to depend on internal improvement to take a step forward this season. A more available and healthy Lowry could be part of that internal improvement plan.
Lowry, 36, missed 13 regular-season games last season because of a private family matter. His first postseason as a member of the Heat was then derailed by a strained left hamstring that forced him to sit out eight playoff games before returning as a limited version of himself.
More will be expected from Lowry this season, as Heat president Pat Riley said in June that Lowry needs to “be in better shape next year.” Lowry has evidently accepted Riley’s challenge, with various photos circulating on social media from offseason workouts showing a leaner Lowry.
When Lowry was available and healthy last season, he made the Heat a better team. Lowry averaged 13.4 points while shooting 44 percent from the field and 37.7 percent on threes, 4.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 1.1 steals last regular season, and Miami was also 2.5 points per 100 possessions better when he was on the court.
Lowry is due $28.3 million this upcoming season in the second year of a three-year, $85 million contract.
What will the Heat’s rotation look like?
Despite having most of last season’s roster back, there are some questions surrounding the Heat’s rotation.
If Herro gets his wish and is moved into the starting lineup, whose spot would he take? Adebayo and Butler are locks to open the season as starters, Lowry is also expected to be a starter and whoever slides in for Tucker as the starting power forward will take another slot.
That leaves Strus as the lone remaining starter from last season’s playoff run who Herro could replace.
This type of change would have a ripple effect on the rest of the Heat’s rotation, with guard Victor Oladipo likely stepping into Herro’s sixth man role.
And is there room for Strus and Duncan Robinson in Miami’s bench rotation? Who will be the backup center — Dedmon or Yurtseven?
These are all issues that will be decided during the preseason and then likely continue to evolve throughout the regular season.
Will the Heat fill its open roster spot?
With 14 players currently signed to standard contracts, the Heat has one open spot on its 15-man roster. But the expectation is Miami will enter the season with 14 players on standard contracts, one shy of the regular-season maximum.
Why?
The Heat has about $150.1 million committed to salaries for this season, with the NBA setting the 2022-23 salary cap at $123.7 million and luxury-tax threshold at $150.3 million. That leaves the Heat just about $200,000 away from entering the tax, which does not give Miami enough space to sign a 15th player to a standard contract without becoming a luxury tax team.
Avoiding the luxury tax would again push back the clock on the looming punitive repeater tax (when a team is over the tax at least three times during a four-year period). The last time the Heat finished as a tax team was in the 2019-20 season.
But later this season when the prorated minimum salary is low enough, the Heat could fill that 15th roster spot without becoming a tax team. Or Miami can opt to fill the opening through a trade before then.
While one spot remains open on its regular-season roster, the Heat’s preseason roster is at the maximum of 20 players. That includes two signed to two-way deals in guard Marcus Garrett and Days, which allows for players to be on their NBA team’s active list for as many as 50 regular-season games.
