Mailbag: What would it take for Heat to trade its draft pick? And a new starting lineup?
The Miami Herald Heat mailbag is here to answer your questions this offseason.
If you were not able to ask this time, send your questions for future mailbags via Twitter (@Anthony_Chiang). You can also email them in to achiang@miamiherald.com.
@TPresnedi: Hi Anthony, do you think the Heat keep their pick? If they do, who do you think they choose? Thanks!
Anthony Chiang: It all depends on who becomes available on the trade market. If there’s a deal to be made that can make the Heat better and it takes the 27th pick in the June 23 draft to get it done, that selection will be made by another team. While quality players have been drafted at No. 27 recently like Robert Williams (2018), Pascal Siakam (2016) and Rudy Gobert (2013), the Heat has proven through the years that it doesn’t need draft picks to find young rotation-level players.
When asked about this year’s draft pick, Heat president Pat Riley said this week: “There’s a lot of good players that have been drafted down there. But it’s sort of a crapshoot when you’re looking for talent, and it isn’t ready made at the top of the lottery and sometimes the top of the lottery you can make a mistake there, too.
“As far as our draft choices, they’re valuable to us. We finally got them back in order a little bit. So we’re going to use them unless something presents itself that causes you to say, ‘Hey, I think I’ll do this,’ that will transcend drafting somebody. I would always consider that. But that’s all part of the discussion between now and the draft.”
The fact that the Heat is even able to trade this year’s pick is a win for the organization.
The Heat previously owed a 2023 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder with draft protections that ran until 2026, which prevented Miami from including an unprotected first-round selection in a trade until 2028 with the NBA not allowing teams to be without consecutive future first-round picks.
But as part of a trade in February that sent forward KZ Okpala to the Thunder, the Heat amended the protections to push the pick owed back from 2023 to 2025. That allows Miami to include an unprotected 2022, 2023 and/or 2028 first-round selection in a trade leading up to the draft later this month.
As for who the Heat might draft at No. 27 if it keeps the pick, we have a few weeks to speculate about that. But ESPN’s mock draft put together by Jonathan Givony has the Heat selecting wing MarJon Beauchamp from the G League Ignite if it drafts based on need and guard Dalen Terry from the University of Arizona if it drafts the best available player on the board.
@unkstreetz: If Herro wins a starting spot, could you see a lineup of him, Jimmy, Bam, Lowry and Strus? And bring P.J. off the bench.
Anthony: That’s an interesting idea that I wouldn’t completely rule out, considering that the Kyle Lowry-Tyler Herro-Max Strus-Jimmy Butler-Bam Adebayo lineup produced positive results in their limited time together this past season. This five-man Heat combination outscored opponents by 30 points in 19 minutes together this regular season and outscored opponents by four points in three minutes together this postseason.
Now, there’s a reason why this lineup wasn’t used much this past season. Defense and size is a concern, with forward P.J. Tucker providing a physical presence in the frontcourt who can effectively guard nearly every position on the court despite standing at just 6-5. But there’s no doubt that the offensive spacing would be better if Tucker is replaced by Herro in the starting lineup. Even though Tucker is a quality three-point shooter from the corners, he does it at a low volume compared to the seven three-point attempts per game Herro averaged this regular season.
Moving Tucker out of the starting lineup could also help keep his minutes down in order to give him a better chance of entering the playoffs as the healthiest and freshest version of himself at 37 years old.
But if I have to guess: I would still say that if Herro is used as a starter next season, he’ll replace Strus in the Heat’s starting lineup.
