What happened to Heat’s three-point shooting in playoffs? Erik Spoelstra, Max Strus explain
Jimmy Butler’s missed three-point shot that would have put the Miami Heat ahead in the final seconds of its season-ending Game 7 loss to the Boston Celtics on Sunday received all the attention. But it was the Heat’s uncharacteristically poor three-point shooting throughout the Eastern Conference finals that proved fatal.
After making a league-leading 37.9 percent of its threes in the regular season, the Heat shot just 30 percent from deep in the East finals. And while there are other factors that led to the result of the series, three-point shooting was an important one as the Heat shot 36.7 percent from beyond the arc in its three wins and 25.5 percent on threes in its four losses during the conference finals.
The Heat actually struggled to make threes for most of the postseason after establishing itself as the NBA’s most efficient three-point shooting team in the regular season. Miami made just 31.3 percent of its threes in the playoffs.
How does Heat coach Erik Spoelstra explain the three-point shooting drop-off?
“I have a couple things at the top of my mind,” Spoelstra said Tuesday as the Heat held exit interviews at FTX Arena after it fell one win short of reaching the NBA Finals. “One, our team proved that we can win in a lot of different ways. It doesn’t have to just be with three-point shooting. The three-point shooting is a weapon for every team. I think you’ve seen that in every series. Teams that would win the three-point game have probably put themselves in a pretty good chance to win the game and that’s on both sides. If you had explosions from the three-point line and were able to limit the three-point shooting for the other team, the math just wouldn’t add up at times. But then you also saw across the board, teams able to really win in the mud and you certainly saw that with us.
“My other thought about that is just the level of scouting and attention to detail defensively in the playoffs, it increases exponentially. So some of those looks, even though they may have been described as open or lightly contested, that’s a different open or lightly contested shot than if it happens in December or January.”
To Spoelstra’s point, NBA tracking stats say that the Heat shot 153 of 485 (31.5 percent) on open and wide open threes this postseason, which is defined as a shot with the closest defender at least four feet away. Miami made 911 of 2,337 (39 percent) of those shots this regular season.
The difference is the context (time left on the shot clock, player attempting the shot and spot on the floor the shot came at) surrounding the Heat’s “open” looks in the playoffs is much different than the ones it was able to generate consistently in the regular season.
“That’s just what it was. Teams made adjustments to what we were good at and what works,” Heat starting wing Max Strus said when asked about the Heat’s three-point shooting regression. “That’s the name of the game in the playoffs. Teams did a good job of taking us out of those actions and triggers that got us open threes, especially Boston. I got to take my hats off to them. Those guys defended very well and made me do more than just shoot threes. So you can put the full blame on me for our three-point shooting percentage. I should be the leader of that as the best shooter on the team.”
Strus attempted a team-high 7.9 threes per game in the playoffs and made 33.1 percent of those shots. He shot 41 percent on 6.5 three-point attempts per game in the regular season.
Kyle Lowry, who shot 37.7 percent from three-point range on 6.1 attempts per game in the regular season, made just 24.1 percent of his threes this postseason.
Tyler Herro hit just 22.9 percent of his threes in the playoffs after shooting 39.9 percent on 6.7 three-point attempts in the regular season.
Gabe Vincent shot 30.9 percent from three-point range this postseason. He shot 36.8 percent on 4.8 three-point attempts per game in the regular season.
Victor Oladipo, who shot 41.7 percent on 4.5 three-point attempts per game in the regular season, made just 27.4 percent of his threes in the playoffs.
Butler was of the few players on the Heat’s roster who was more efficient from three-point range in the postseason than he was in the regular season. After finishing the regular season as one of the NBA’s worst outside shooters with a three-point percentage of 23.3 percent, he made 33.8 percent of his threes in the playoffs.
The fact that Duncan Robinson, who was the Heat’s best three-point shooter in the previous two seasons, fell out of the rotation this postseason didn’t help the team’s three-point metrics.
“Our shooters will continue to work on their ability to make shots under duress with shorter windows,” Spoelstra said. “But my initial thought and I’ll go into a full autopsy on that this summer, my instinct on that is I think [the three-point shooting story line] was overplayed. It still came down to a few possessions where we could have gotten into this next round regardless of that shooting. I know you can get stuck on that percentage. Ultimately, it’s about getting the win.”
But three-point shooting was such an important part of the Heat’s winning formula that it often couldn’t overcome an inefficient shooting performance from beyond the arc.
The Heat closed the season with a nearly perfect 32-2 record when shooting 40 percent or better from deep. Miami was just 32-34 when shooting worse than 40 percent from three-point range.
The Heat’s goal for next season is to not be as reliant on its outside shooting, especially in half-court situations.
“There’s a myriad of different ways that you can and also it is required to be able to effectively find different ways to win in the playoffs. The defenses are just too good,” Spoelstra continued. “You can’t rely on one thing. That’s just one thing. But also you can’t just rely on your ability to get to the free-throw line, your ability to attack, your ability to get in transition. You really have to have a lot of different solutions at different times during a series and certainly against different opponents.”
