Has Heat’s Jimmy Butler been NBA’s best player this postseason? Advanced metrics say yes
Has Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler been the NBA’s best player in this season’s playoffs? Most of the advanced metrics say yes.
So far, this postseason entering Wednesday:
▪ Butler ranks first in FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR (Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings) metric. Dallas’ Luka Doncic ranks second and Memphis’ Ja Morant ranks third.
▪ Butler leads the NBA in win shares per 48 minutes, which is an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player per 48 minutes. Phoenix’ Chris Paul ranks second and Boston’s Al Horford ranks third.
▪ Butler ranks first in box plus/minus, which is a box score estimate of the points per 100 possessions a player contributed above a league-average player. Denver’s Nikola Jokic ranks second and Miwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo ranks third.
▪ Butler leads the NBA in value over replacement player, which is a box score estimate of the points per 100 team possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level player prorated to an 82-game season. Antetokounmpo ranks second and Morant ranks third.
The bottom line: Butler has again raised his game to an even higher level in the playoffs after leading the Heat to the NBA Finals in the Walt Disney World bubble in 2020. Miami finished two wins short of a championship that season.
“He’s a great competitor at his core, at his heart and his soul. He’s an ultimate competitor,” coach Erik Spoelstra said of Butler, as the Heat takes its 3-2 series lead to Philadelphia in hopes of closing out the 76ers in the second round of the playoffs on Thursday (7 p.m., ESPN) at Wells Fargo Center.
“When you get into competition, he understands the whole deal that you have to be able to do it on both ends. That’s what he’s been doing for us for three years. Just really competing on both ends. But he’s able to compete with a ferocity and do it with an incredible, stable mind. That is really unique.”
In addition to the advanced metrics, Butler’s postseason greatness even stands out in standard box scores.
Butler, 32, is averaging 28.3 points while shooting 53.8 percent from the field, 36.8 percent on 4.2 three-point attempts per game, 7.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.2 steals in the playoffs. The Heat has outscored opponents by 102 points with Butler on the court this postseason, while teams have outscored the Heat by five points with Butler on the bench.
The only players in NBA history who have averaged at least 28 points, seven rebounds and five assists while shooting 53 percent or better from the field during an entire playoff run are Jokic this season, Antetokounmpo last season, LeBron James in 2016-17 and 2017-18, and Alex English in 1983-84. Butler is on pace to join that list.
“Jimmy is just a stable high IQ, he’s got a feel for what your team needs and he does it on both ends,” Spoelstra said. “That’s what’s really kind of lost on young players coming into this league of really what that looks like, being a two-way basketball player. ... Our whole team feels a great sense of confidence when the ball is in Jimmy’s hands and we leave the decision up to him. He’s a very efficient offensive basketball player.”
Along with being an elite two-way player, one of Butler’s biggest strengths is identifying what the Heat needs each game and adjusting his playing style to fill that need.
When the Heat struggled to make shots in Philadelphia, Butler scored 33 points on 22 shots from the field in Game 3 and 40 points on 20 shots from the field in Game 4. But both were losses because his teammates combined to shoot just 34.2 percent from the field in those two games.
In Tuesday’s Game 5 win, the Heat was without starting point guard Kyle Lowry because of his lingering hamstring injury. So Butler took on more of a playmaking role with 23 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field, nine rebounds and six assists.
“He has been able to toggle between those roles seamlessly and make it look a lot easier than it is,” Spoelstra said.
Butler’s agent Bernie Lee explained it this way to the Miami Herald: “The biggest thing that changes for him is the identification of what his team needs, like the make up of the group changes every year. So through the regular season, he’ll be able to figure out the strengths and weaknesses of the team he’s on. By the time the playoffs roll around, he’s decided how he’s going to fill in those gaps.
“The other thing that’s interesting is by the end of the year, he earns so much trust from his teammates and coaches that they, at the end of the year, empower him to really carry them.”
Butler’s Heat teammates who were with him during the Heat’s 2020 playoff run in the bubble have seen this up close before, when he became just the second player in NBA history to lead his team outright in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in a Finals series. The other player who accomplished that is James, who did it in the 2016 Finals as a member of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
For first-year Heat players, this is their first experience around the playoff version of Butler.
“He’s a dog, he plays hard. He’s smart. He knows the game,” said Heat forward P.J. Tucker, who won an NBA championship with the Milwaukee Bucks last season. “But more than anything, he just plays really hard. That’s the part that I appreciate. He gives 120 percent every play. He never lets up. He fights to the end and that’s all you can ask for in this league.”
While Butler’s game has reached a higher level in the playoffs in two of his first three seasons with the Heat, he insists his day-to-day process doesn’t change in the postseason. His days remain filled with card games and caffeine.
“I do the same thing every day,” Butler said. “Kicking it with my boys, playing some spades, dominoes, too much coffee going on and then come out here to compete.”
Maybe that’s Butler’s secret with the Heat. He can remain himself through it all.
“More than anything, my teammates my coaches, this entire organization really believe in the player that I’ve become over the years,” he said. “So they allow me to be me here. They allow me to just hoop and not say too much. Good, bad and different, they rocking with me. That’s the best feeling to have, especially right now in the playoffs.”
This story was originally published May 11, 2022 at 1:40 PM.
