One solution to issues vs. 76ers: Make more threes. Why the Heat remains ‘confident’
Miami Heat players and coaches will watch and study film from the two losses in Philadelphia. But there’s a simple fix to many of the issues facing the Heat at the moment: Make more threes.
“A lot of it comes down to us making shots,” Heat star Jimmy Butler said.
It sounds elementary, but Butler is right.
There are layers to it like generating the right looks and making sure the right players are getting the shots. But after dropping games 3 and 4 at Wells Fargo Center to allow the Philadelphia 76ers climb out of a 2-0 hole to tie the second-round series 2-2, the Heat returns to Miami knowing it must make more threes to bounce back in a pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday (7:30 p.m., TNT) at FTX Arena.
The Heat shot 7 of 30 (23.3 percent) from three-point range in Friday’s 99-79 Game 3 loss and 7 of 35 (20 percent) from three-point range in Sunday’s 116-108 Game 4 loss. That left Miami shooting a combined 14 of 65 (21.5 percent) from beyond the arc in the two losses.
“I think in Game 3, we didn’t really generate enough good looks. Our offense was really flat,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “I thought [in Game 4], we actually had some really good looks. We just missed them. But that’s part of the game, part of the playoffs. Sometimes you don’t make shots.”
Max Strus, who shot 41 percent on threes in the regular season, shot 5 of 16 (31.3 percent) from deep in the last two games.
Tyler Herro, who shot 39.9 percent on threes in the regular season, shot 3 of 12 (25 percent) from three-point range in the last two games.
Butler, who shot 23.3 percent on threes in the regular season but 43.8 percent from long range in the first round of the playoffs, shot 3 of 11 (27.3 percent) from deep in the last two games.
Kyle Lowry, who shot 37.7 percent on threes in the regular season, shot 0 of 8 from deep in the past two games as he battles a lingering strained left hamstring.
Victor Oladipo, who shot 41.7 percent on threes in eight regular-season games, shot 2 of 7 (28.6 percent) from beyond the arc in the past two games.
P.J. Tucker, who shot 41.5 percent on threes in the regular season, shot 1 of 5 (20 percent) from three-point range in the past two games.
Gabe Vincent, who shot 36.8 percent on threes in the regular season, shot 0 of 4 from beyond the arc in the last two games.
“We’re getting good looks,” Lowry said following Game 4. “I’m 0 for 6, whatever. Vic got some good looks. Tyler, good looks. Gabe, good looks. P.J., good looks. We just literally made seven threes. We got some really good looks. So I feel like the next game, I’m positive and confident that we’ll make those threes the next game.”
That confidence is earned after the Heat closed the regular season with the NBA’s top team three-point percentage at 37.9 percent.
In fact, the past two games can be considered the outlier. The Heat has shot worse than 25 percent from three-point range in just six games this season, and two of them were Games 3 and 4 of this series.
“We’re going to take the same shots next game and they’re going to fall because that’s the way that we’ve been playing all year long,” Butler said. “We’re not scared of missing shots. If anything, we probably should have jacked up some more.”
The Heat has definitely missed some three-point shots it usually makes, but Philadelphia also deserves credit for taking away some of the looks that Miami is used to getting. With All-Star center Joel Embiid back as the anchor of the defense, he has allowed the 76ers to play more aggressively on the edges against the Heat’s shooters in the last two games.
In the regular season, an NBA-high 12.4 percent of the Heat’s shots were corner threes. During this two-game shooting struggle, Miami has taken just nine corner threes and 5.2 percent of its shots have been from that area of the court.
“I like our looks,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “We’re 7 for 35 from three. That don’t even sound like us. We’ll figure it out.”
Making outside shots would represent a big step toward figuring it out. Three-point shooting has been an important part of Miami’s formula all season.
The Heat is 31-2 this season when shooting 40 percent or better from three-point range and 28-30 when it hasn’t hit that threshold.
Three-point shooting has also essentially decided the outcome of each of the first four games of the series.
In their two losses to start the series, the 76ers shot 14 of 64 (21.9 percent) on threes. In their two wins since, the 76ers are 32 of 66 (48.5 percent) from three-point range.
In their two wins to open the series, the Heat shot 23 of 65 (35.4 percent) on threes. Miami has made just 14 threes in the last two games.
“We have great three-point shooters on this team,” Spoelstra said. “It just seemed like this kind of flipped. It seemed like Philly was saying the same thing in the two games in Miami. We’re saying the same thing here.”
One of the Heat’s most accomplished and best three-point shooters spent games 3 and 4 on the bench, though. Duncan Robinson spent most of the season as a full-time starter before being moved to a bench role with just two weeks left in the regular season, and he has found himself completely out of the rotation in the first four games of the second round.
Robinson, who shot 37.2 percent from three-point range this season and made more than 40 percent of his threes in each of the previous two seasons, has played a total of 55 seconds and received three DNP-CDs (did not play, coach’s decision) in the first four games of the series. They have marked his first DNP-CDs since April 2019.
Spoelstra said he considered playing Robinson in Sunday’s loss as the Heat continued to miss threes, but ultimately decided not to.
“Obviously right now, you look at the percentage, that’s an easy conclusion,” Spoelstra said immediately following the Heat’s Game 4 loss when asked about the potential of playing Robinson in the series.
“We have great depth. That’s why I don’t want to come to any conclusions right now, particularly 20 minutes after the game where it’s emotional. It’s always easier to say, ‘Oh, we shot that percentage from three.’ I just want to see what’s real and what’s not. I thought we still had great quality looks and we’re a great three-point shooting team. We just weren’t able to knock those down.”
The Heat knows that as fast as its three-point shooting turned cold, it can also turn hot again just as quickly. But Miami doesn’t have much time to rely on the math correcting itself, though, because this is now a best-of-three series.
“We have so many ignitable guys,” Spoelstra said. “You mentioned Duncan. But the same thing with Max, the same thing with Tyler, Gabe. They see a couple go down, that could turn into four, five, six like that. That’s what I want our guys thinking about. I want them being gunslingers coming out firing and us playing the right way, the way we’re used to doing it. But that ignitability, that can change in a hurry.”
This story was originally published May 9, 2022 at 12:27 PM.
