Closer look at Heat’s playoff matchup vs. Hawks and important questions surrounding series
The top-seeded Miami Heat and eighth-seeded Atlanta Hawks begin their best-of-7 first-round playoff series on Sunday at 1 p.m. at FTX Arena.
Here are six questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-Hawks series and a prediction:
The Heat had success against the Hawks during the regular season. What does that mean for the series?
It means the Heat is expected to win this series. The Heat was the much better team over the course of the regular season, when it also won three of its four matchups against the Hawks. Here’s a glance at what happened when the Heat and Hawks faced off ...
Game 1, Jan. 12: Even with its leading duo of Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler out because of injuries, the Heat managed to earn a 115-91 win over the Hawks at State Farm Arena. Seven Heat players finished with double-digit points led by 21 points, nine rebounds and 11 assists from guard Tyler Herro. The Hawks shot just 37.8 percent from the field and 13 of 45 (28.9 percent) on threes to post its worst single-game offensive rating of the regular season. Atlanta was without starting center Clint Capela.
Game 2, Jan. 14: Just two nights after the teams’ first meeting of the season, the Heat got Butler back and again defeated the Hawks 124-118 at FTX Arena. With Adebayo still out, the Heat trailed the entire second half until tying the game with 3:34 to play. After totaling 99 points on 54.2 percent shooting in the first three quarters, the Hawks were limited to just 19 points on 30 percent shooting in the fourth quarter. Trae Young scored 20 points in the first three quarters, but didn’t make a field goal in the fourth quarter. Herro led the Heat with 24 points, and Butler finished with 23 points and 10 assists. The Hawks were again without Capela.
Game 3, Jan. 21: The Heat had both Adebayo and Butler but didn’t have Herro or Kyle Lowry in this one, falling to the Hawks 110-108 at State Farm Arena in the teams’ third meeting in a span of 10 days. Atlanta shot 55.9 percent from the field, 14 of 33 (42.4 percent) on threes and 20 of 24 (83.3 percent) from the foul line, as Young scored 28 points with the help of 12-of-15 shooting from the foul line. Despite the Hawks’ ultra-efficient shooting night, the Heat rallied from a 16-point fourth-quarter deficit with a 29-14 run to pull within one point with under a minute to play. But Miami couldn’t complete the comeback. The Hawks were without Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari.
Game 4, April 8: The teams’ final matchup of the season was just a week ago, as the Heat escaped with a 113-109 win over the Hawks at FTX Arena. This result came despite the Hawks having a lot more to play for, as the Heat entered with the East’s No. 1 playoff seed already clinched. The Heat, playing without starter P.J. Tucker, trailed by six points with 5:18 to play. But Miami closed the game on a 16-6 run to complete the comeback. The Heat overcame a 35-point performance from Young, who shot just 3 of 12 from the field in the second half. The Hawks were without John Collins and Lou Williams.
Overall: The Heat outscored the Hawks by a total score of 460-428, including by 8.3 points per 100 possessions in their four matchups.
What’s the injury situation for both teams?
The Heat received positive news ahead of Game 1. Adebayo and Tucker are expected to play Sunday.
Adebayo was cleared to rejoin the team for Saturday’s practice after entering the NBA’s COVID-19 protocols last Sunday. He said he plans to play in Game 1.
Tucker, who missed the last two regular-season games with a strained right calf and was limited in practice this week, said he also plans to play on Sunday. He’s listed as questionable for Game 1 on the injury report.
The rest of the Heat’s injury report includes Markieff Morris (left hip flexor strain), Haywood Highsmith (left hip flexor strain) and Dewayne Dedmon (right ankle sprain), who are all questionable. Gabe Vincent is listed as probable with a right big toe contusion.
The Hawks, which made it to the Eastern Conference finals last season, are dealing with their own injury issues.
Capela left Friday night’s play-in win over the Cleveland Cavaliers early because of a hyperextended right knee, as ESPN reported an MRI on Saturday revealed no structural damage and he’s expected to be re-evaluated in a week. He has already been ruled out for Game 1.
The Hawks will also be without reserve guard Lou Williams (low back discomfort) on Sunday.
But the Hawks could get starting forward John Collins back. Collins, who has not played since March 11 because of a sprained right ring finger and a strained right foot, has been upgraded to questionable for Game 1.
How will the Heat try to contain Young?
Young was the NBA’s fourth-leading scorer with 28.4 points per game and ranked third with the 9.7 assists per game in the regular season. He became the second player in NBA history to finish a regular season as the league leader in both total points and assists.
The only players around the NBA with a higher usage rate (an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while on the court) than Young this season were Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, Dallas’ Luka Doncic and Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo. Young is at the center of everything the Hawks do on offense.
In four games against the Heat, Young averaged 25.5 points while shooting 43.9 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from three-point range, 2.8 rebounds and 7.3 assists.
The Heat will throw various coverages and defenders at Young in an effort to make him uncomfortable and disrupt his rhythm. That was the case in the regular season, when Miami trapped, switched and played Young straight up at different points.
The NBA’s matchup data shows that Caleb Martin, Butler, Lowry and Gabe Vincent spent extended stretches as Young’s primary defender during the regular season. The threat of Adebayo switching on to Young will also affect the Hawks’ game plan.
But Martin spent the most time guarding Young among Heat players, holding him to 17 points on 4-of-9 shooting in 74 possessions as his defender this season. Expect Martin to be an important character in this first-round series because he’ll likely again get the chance to defend Young in important moments.
What’s the Heat’s biggest advantage in this series?
The fact that the Heat is the more balanced team, as it closed the regular season with the NBA’s 12th-best offensive rating and fourth-best defensive rating. The Hawks featured the league’s second-best offense, but finished with the league’s fifth-worst defense (worst among NBA playoff teams).
The Heat took advantage of the Hawks’ defensive issues in their four matchups this season, shooting 50.9 percent from the field and 39.7 percent on threes in those games. Miami scored at a rate of 119.5 points per 100 possessions against Atlanta, which would have been the NBA’s best offensive rating among teams this season.
Adebayo averaged 22.5 points on 55.6 percent shooting, Herro averaged 20 points on 46.8 percent shooting and Butler averaged 18.7 points on 45.9 percent shooting against the Hawks this season. The Heat will to try to involve Young in as many offensive actions as possible to take advantage of his defensive limitations throughout the series.
How can the Hawks make this a long series and possibly upset the Heat?
Young would need to have a huge series and solve the Heat’s defense with both his scoring and playmaking ability. The Hawks posted an 18-8 record when Young shot 50 percent or better from the field in the regular season, and he’ll need a few of those kind of performances for the Hawks to make the Heat sweat.
The Hawks did have the NBA’s second-best half-court offense in the regular season, according to Cleaning The Glass, which usually translates to playoff success. Atlanta’s offense, led by Young and made complete by scorers like De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, Bogdanovic and Gallinari, needs to have that kind of success to have a chance against Miami.
It’s worth noting that the Hawks did get better as the regular-season went on, posting a 15-9 record since the All-Star break with the NBA’s fifth-best offensive rating and 17th-best defensive rating during that stretch.
What’s an under-the-radar advantage the Heat has entering the series?
The Heat will begin the playoffs after six full days off between last Sunday’s regular-season finale and this upcoming Sunday’s Game 1. The Hawks played two games this week as part of the play-in tournament in order to earn the East’s No. 8 seed, and only have about 40 hours to rest and recover between Friday’s win in Cleveland and Sunday’s 1 p.m. tipoff in Miami.
The Heat, which holds home-court advantage over the Hawks, was 16-2 in the regular season when playing a game coming off of two or more days of rest. Miami also finished the regular season with the East’s best home record at 29-12, while Atlanta closed with the worst road record among NBA playoff teams at 16-25.
Prediction: Heat in five.
This story was originally published April 16, 2022 at 9:28 AM.
