Heat’s Duncan Robinson didn’t hit his shooting ‘baseline,’ but he’s moving past that
Before the start of the season, Duncan Robinson pointed to 40 percent as the number he considered as his three-point shooting baseline.
After making more than 40 percent of his threes in each of the last two seasons, Robinson won’t hit that mark this year. The Miami Heat’s most accomplished outside shooter entered Sunday’s regular-season finale against the Magic in Orlando shooting 37.2 percent on 7.9 three-point attempts per game this season.
“Honestly, I had a stretch where I was very conscious of the percentage,” Robinson said recently as it became clear he wouldn’t reach 40 percent this season. “Then I’ve had a stretch recently where I’ve just tried to pay it as little mind as possible. I think it will always be a baseline of what’s considered an elite shooter or whatever. But you got to adjust the goalposts based on the situation and context. So things change, for sure.”
Robinson hasn’t only been forced to set new benchmarks for himself, he’s also been forced to adjust to a new role.
The Heat’s recent rotation adjustments moved Robinson, who turns 28 on April 22, out of the starting lineup. With Max Strus replaced him as a starter, Robinson is now playing consistently off the bench for the first time in three seasons as he started 68 of his 73 regular-season appearances in 2019-20, all 72 of his regular-season appearances last season and 67 games this season before the change.
“That’s what you get when you play on a good team with a lot of guys that can do a lot of different things,” said Robinson, who has remained a consistent member of the Heat’s rotation even as a reserve. “For me, it’s just about wrapping my mind around that and it’s definitely not something that’s easy. But everybody is going through it. It’s sacrifice when you’re on a good team like this that wants to do something special, that’s what it takes.”
Robinson admits he “thought about trying to get back to 40 percent” this season, but realized he had too much ground to make up to do it. That’s because of a slow start, as he made just 32.8 percent of his threes over the first 21 games of the season.
Following that low point, Robinson has been much closer to 40 percent. He has shot 39.2 percent on 7.4 three-point attempts per game since the start of December.
“At this point, I’m not getting too caught up in the percentages,” said Robinson, who signed a five-year deal worth $90 million in free agency with the Heat last summer.
The percentage has dipped this season after putting together one of the best two-year three-point shooting stretches in NBA history.
Robinson shot 42.7 percent on 8.4 three-point attempts per game over the previous two seasons. Golden State Warriors star Stephen Curry is the only player in NBA history who has shot 42 percent or better from deep on eight or more three-point attempts per game during his career.
But Robinson has remained an important part of the Heat’s offense, even with his threes not going in at that all-world rate this season. Since moving to a bench role a few weeks ago, Robinson’s shooting paired with Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro has resulted in the Heat outscoring opponents by 8.4 points per 100 possessions in the 93 minutes those three have played together over six games.
“It’s not about the percentage,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said when asked about Robinson. “It’s about the actions and being assertive and creating movement for us. That part of our menu is different than the rest of our menu. It is important because it gives us that diversity. It also gives us different coverages that teams tend to scramble, overreact a little bit more. That tends to open up things for other guys. We just had to stay the course with it and understand that misses are a part of it.”
Robinson was very aware of his three-point percentage earlier this season. It has been an up-and-down year that has challenged him in different ways and now has him playing off the bench.
As the Heat prepares to open the playoffs on April 17 as the Eastern Conference’s top seed, Robinson insists he has put all of that behind him.
“At this point in the season, your numbers aren’t changing,” he said. “The priorities have definitely shifted. They’ve always been about the team first, but now I think everyone’s priorities have shifted to what do we need to do to lock in, maximize this and play our best basketball at the right time.”
This story was originally published April 10, 2022 at 10:52 AM.
