Why is Heat having trouble holding onto late-game leads? Jimmy Butler, others try to explain
There isn’t much to nitpick about the Miami Heat’s start to the season.
The Heat is 11-6 despite playing 10 of its first 17 games on the road. Among the seven NBA teams that have already played 10 or more road games this season, the Heat owns the top overall record and is one of only three teams with a winning overall record.
But if there’s one area that the Heat has struggled with at times early this season, it’s holding onto leads in the fourth quarter.
That trend continued in Saturday night’s 103-100 loss to the Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena to kick off a four-game trip. The Heat led by 10 points with 4:42 left in the fourth quarter and the Wizards closed the game on a 19-6 run to rally for the win.
“We stop doing what we were doing to get those leads,” Jimmy Butler said, with the Heat now in the middle of a two-day break before continuing its trip Tuesday night against the Detroit Pistons. “We tend to get comfortable and that’s a bad thing whenever you get complacent and then you think the game is just going to keep going that way.”
The fourth quarter has been a bit of an adventure for the Heat recently.
▪ In Miami’s matchup against the Utah Jazz on Nov. 6 at FTX Arena, the Heat led by 19 with 5:20 to play and Utah used a 24-6 run to cut the deficit to just one in the final seconds. Miami hung on for a 118-115 victory.
▪ In an overtime loss to the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center on Nov. 10, the Heat led by nine points with 4:45 remaining in the fourth quarter before the Lakers forced overtime on their way to a 120-117 comeback win.
▪ In a 111-105 win over the Jazz on Nov. 13 at Vivint Arena, Utah scored 18 unanswered points late in the fourth quarter to trim Miami’s lead from 22 to four points in the final seconds. The Heat still managed to come away with the win
“I just think everybody has to grow up a little bit and realize if we want to be a really good team, we got to win these games,” Butler said following Saturday’s loss to the Wizards. “We got to hold onto these leads, we got to keep playing basketball the right way, keep getting stops even when we’re not making shots because that’s what’s going to win us a championship on the defensive end.”
Heat coach Erik Spoelstra wasn’t ready to draw a common thread for the Heat’s recent late-game issues.
“This did not feel like the other games at all,” Spoelstra said following Saturday’s loss to the Wizards. “Yes, we were in control. But it was a close possession game those last six minutes and then you have to make some plays.”
Mostly because of its fourth-quarter struggles, the Heat is 3-4 in clutch games this season. A clutch game is defined as a game that has a margin of five points or fewer inside the final five minutes of the fourth quarter.
The Heat has shot just 31.7 percent from the field and 2 of 16 on threes while recording only six assists to 10 turnovers in these situations. Miami has been outscored 61-40 in the clutch and has posted the NBA’s second-worst offensive rating during those late-game minutes with just 71.4 points scored per 100 possessions this season.
The Heat shot 0 of 4 from the field and 0 of 3 from three-point range in the clutch during Saturday’s loss to the Wizards. Three of the shots were contested and the other was a full-court heave as the final buzzer sounded.
“It’s not really the offense,” Butler said when asked about the Heat’s offensive execution late in close games. “I think it’s more so the defense, seriously. I think we get a good shot every single time. I’m comfortable and confident with the shots that I take. [Tyler Herro], Bam [Adebayo], [P.J. Tucker], Kyle [Lowry], all the way down the line. But we just don’t get no stops on the other end.”
Instead, Butler pointed to defensive lapses late in games and Tucker noted there’s “a lot of trial and error trying different things on defense” in those situations that sometimes hurts the Heat.
“You get in situations, you’re trying different things,” Tucker said. “Whether we’re trapping, whether we’re staying or we’re stunting. Just different things in different situations on defense.”
The Heat has posted the NBA’s 10th-worst defensive rating in clutch situations, allowing 110.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s a big drop off for a team that entered Sunday with the league’s seventh-best overall defensive rating (allowing 104.3 points per 100 possessions).
“Teams with the ball are going to get their best players on your worst defenders,” Tucker said of what changes late in close games. “They’re going to try to bring people up, put them in pick-and-rolls and isolate to be able to get their guys off. So we in turn try to not do that. When they do that, we try to either blitz or try to get our guys in rotations so we can get them off of them.”
In total, the Heat has been outscored by 39.5 points per 100 possessions in clutch situations. That’s another big drop off for a team that entered Sunday with the NBA’s third-best overall net rating (plus-7.4 points per 100 possessions).
During clutch minutes, Adebayo has shot 3 of 8, Butler has shot 2 of 8, Herro has shot 4 of 11 and Lowry has shot 3 of 8.
Most of those numbers will likely improve because the Heat is a much better team than the results it has produced in clutch situations so far. As the sample size grows, the numbers should start trending in the right direction.
But the Heat knows the early-season blown leads and close losses could cost them down the road when it comes to playoff seeding.
“This league is very humbling,” Butler said. “It’s fragile and just as soon as you think you’re good and you’re high on yourself, you get hit like this. I don’t think we should have lost this game. We did. You can say we learned from it and we’ll go to the drawing board. But I’m hoping this is the last time that this happens, but I can’t guarantee that.”
ROBINSON’S INJURY
Heat forward Duncan Robinson exited Saturday’s loss to the Wizards in the third quarter because of a right knee contusion and did not return.
“He got hit above the knee and hyper-extended it a little bit,” Spoelstra said. “We’ll see how he feels [Sunday].”
More clarity on Robinson’s injury is expected Monday, when the Heat practices in Washington, D.C., before flying to Detroit. He has appeared in 164 consecutive games dating back to April 9, 2019, which is the second-longest streak in franchise history.
