Duncan Robinson preparing for free agency, and a look at a decision the Heat must make
With the start of free agency just three weeks away, Duncan Robinson is working to mentally prepare himself for what lies ahead.
Robinson, who has spent his first three NBA seasons with the Miami Heat, is set to become a restricted free agent this offseason. Teams can begin negotiating with free agents on Aug. 2 and officially begin signing free agents on Aug. 6.
“For a while there it was like I’m just not even thinking about it. We’ll see,” Robinson said when asked about his impending free agency during a recent appearance on “The Old Man and the Three with JJ Redick and Tommy Alter” podcast. “Now we’re kind of getting into the zone where it’s like, all right, I’ll start to kind of feel out some different things and start to kind of really think critically about what I’m looking for in a potential destination.”
Robinson, a 6-7 forward, has quickly earned the reputation as one of the NBA’s top shooters after spending most of his rookie season in the G League. In the past two regular seasons combined, only Sacramento’s Buddy Hield (553) and Portland’s Damian Lillard (545) have totaled more made three-pointers than Robinson (520).
The Heat will have the right to match any offer Robinson receives from other teams, assuming Miami extends a qualifying offer as expected by the Aug. 1 deadline. Robinson’s 2021-22 cap hit for the Heat will be modest (about $4.7 million) if he receives a qualifying offer from Miami, but his salary could top $15 million per season after playing on a $1.7 million salary this past season.
Comparable players such as Brooklyn Nets sharpshooter Joe Harris signed a four-year, $75 million contract and Washington Wizards three-point specialist Davis Bertans signed a five-year, $80 million as free agents last offseason.
“The fact that I’m restricted, I think, changes a lot of things largely in that I’ve really, really loved my experience in Miami,” Robinson continued on the podcast. “But the reality is I don’t know a month from now what it’s going to look like. With where I’m at right now, truthfully, I’m just trying to keep an open mind. A big part of that is like not getting too attached to any scenario.”
While the expectation is the Heat will extend a qualifying offer to Robinson to make him a restricted free agent and gain the right to match outside offers, there is a scenario where Miami could allow him to become an unrestricted free agent. By pulling the qualifying offer to make Robinson an unrestricted free agent, the Heat could decrease his cap hold to $2.1 million to free up extra cap space (but this move would only likely be made if Miami chooses to operate as a room team this summer and knew Robinson would re-sign after the Heat uses its cap space).
With guard Kendrick Nunn in the same situation as Robinson this offseason, the Heat would have about $21 million in cap space if it extends $4.7 million qualifying offers to both Robinson and Nunn to make them restricted free agents. Miami’s cap space would jump to about $26 million if it instead chooses to pull those qualifying offers to allow both to become unrestricted free agents and decrease their cap holds to $2.1 million.
“I think the moment that you get like fixated on a certain outcome, whether it be number or whether it be destination, then it’s like you kind of start getting distracted by that and it becomes obsessive,” said Robinson, who co-hosts his own podcast named “The Long Shot with Duncan Robinson and Davis Reid.” “... At this point, I have such little information. Like I know what I know and I know the experience that I’ve had. But I’ve also only had one experience with one team. So like to see what’s out there is obviously kind of an enticing thought. To have the opportunity to be a free agent and have some different options is obviously a coveted position.”
Robinson, 27, was the only Heat player to appear in all 72 games this past regular season. He closed the regular season with the fourth-most made threes in the NBA at 250 behind Lillard (275), Hield (282) and Golden State’s Stephen Curry (337), and shot 40.8 percent on 8.5 three-point attempts per game.
This comes after Robinson set a Heat record for threes made (270) in a single season in 2019-20, while also joining Curry as the only two players in league history to finish a season with 270 or more made threes while shooting better than 44 percent from deep.
Robinson, who first signed with the Heat as an undrafted prospect out of Michigan in 2018, is one of 12 players from Miami’s season-ending roster who could become free agents this summer.
Trevor Ariza, Nemanja Bjelica, Dewayne Dedmon, Udonis Haslem, Nunn, Victor Oladipo, Robinson, and two-way contract players Max Strus and Gabe Vincent will become free agents this offseason. Also, Goran Dragic, Andre Iguodala and Omer Yurtseven each have team options in their contracts that the Heat must decide on by Aug. 1.
There will be plenty of important roster decisions in front of the Heat in the coming weeks, and it will have a big one to make regarding Robinson.
“I haven’t even like entered into that realm yet at this point three weeks out,” Robinson said of his impending free agency on the podcast. “So like for me right now, it’s just more about like, all right, I’m just going to continue handling my business day in and day out, take the information as it comes. Hopefully, at some point the right opportunity for me will become clear and we’ll move forward.”
This story was originally published July 12, 2021 at 11:12 AM.
