Mailbag: How important are draft picks to the Miami Heat’s pursuit of another star?
The Miami Herald Heat mailbag is here to answer your questions this offseason.
If you were not able to ask this time, send your questions for future mailbags via Twitter (@Anthony_Chiang). You can also email them in to achiang@miamiherald.com.
David: Unless the Heat has first-round picks to trade, it’s going to be hard for them to put together a deal for Damian Lillard or any other star. Right?
Anthony Chiang: You’re not wrong. These days, multiple draft picks are basically an essential part of any trade for a star. To acquire Anthony Davis in 2019, the Los Angeles Lakers sent three players and three first-round picks to the New Orleans Pelicans. Also, the Brooklyn Nets included three first-round picks and four first-round pick swaps as part of their trade package to land James Harden earlier this year. These are just a few examples, but it’s clear that those trades don’t get done without those picks as part of the deal.
As it stands right now, the Heat is not eligible to trade an unprotected first-round pick until 2028. With the NBA only allowing teams to deal picks up to seven drafts into the future and not allowing teams to be without consecutive future first-round picks, the Heat does not currently have an unprotected first-round selection to offer up in a potential trade because the 2028 draft is eight drafts away. This is one of the biggest challenges the Heat faces in putting together a competitive trade offer for any disgruntled star who wants out this offseason.
But Miami does have a few options to solve this problem.
One, wait. The Heat will be permitted to include its 2028 first-round pick in a trade when the new league year starts in early August since the July 29 NBA Draft will have occurred by then, and the 2028 draft will then be seven drafts away.
But that’s still only one pick that the Heat would be able to throw into a trade ... and it would be seven years away.
With the 2023 first-round pick that the Heat traded to the Los Angeles Clippers to help facilitate the four-team deal that brought Jimmy Butler to Miami in 2019, the Heat could also wait out the protections that are attached to that selection.
Draft protections on the 2023 first-round pick that run until 2026 tie the other years up. Miami’s 2023 first-round pick that was traded is lottery protected in 2023, lottery protected in 2024 if it doesn’t convey in 2023, lottery protected in 2025 if it doesn’t convey in 2024, and unprotected in 2026 if it’s not already conveyed by then.
The Clippers have since traded the Heat’s 2023 pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of the Paul George deal in 2019.
If the Heat avoids the lottery in 2023, the first-round pick it owes the Thunder will convey that year and the other years will no longer be tied up by protections.
The Heat could also unlock a first-round pick(s) to put in a trade by acquiring a first-round selection from another team.
Or the Heat could simply approach the Thunder to discuss lifting the protections from the 2023 first-round pick it traded. Lifting the protections would unlock Miami’s 2025 and 2027 first-round selections to be offered in a deal.
Heat president Pat Riley said in early June that he has had no discussions with Thunder general manager Sam Presti about unlocking protections on that 2023 pick. But that doesn’t mean that conversation won’t happen down the road.
The Heat does not have a pick in this year’s draft.
@BillStellman: Your best guess. How many players on the Heat’s final roster this past season will be on the opening night roster next season? Less than eight or more than eight?
Anthony: The Heat only has five players from its season-ending roster with guaranteed salaries for next season. That’s not a high number, so Miami does have the flexibility to bring back a very different team.
But since operating as an over-the-cap team makes the most sense for the Heat in most realistic scenarios, I’m going to say more than eight players return next season. This would allow Miami to make the most of the Bird rights it holds for players like Victor Oladipo and Trevor Ariza to exceed the salary cap to re-sign them. By moving forward as an over-the-cap team, the Heat can also decline Goran Dragic’s $19.4 million and Andre Iguodala’s $15 million options for next season while still retaining their Bird rights to bring them back at lower salaries.
