Is Heat’s top-10 offense back? A look at its recent resurgence. Also, an injury update
The Miami Heat has been searching for consistent and efficient offense for most of the season. The Heat is hoping the past month is an indication that it has finally found it just in time for the start of the playoffs.
After reaching the end of March with the NBA’s sixth-worst offensive rating through the first 48 games of the season, the Heat has featured a top-10 offense since the start of April. Miami has posted an 11-6 record during that stretch, including Sunday’s important 121-111 road win over the Charlotte Hornets.
The Heat (35-30) has posted four of its best 10 single-game offensive ratings of the season during this month-long stretch.
“I think we’re playing well offensively,” Duncan Robinson said, with the Heat hosting the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night to begin a quick two-game homestand. “We’re really working on it. We got good spacing, the ball is going where it needs to go and it’s in the right people’s hands. So I think that’s helped. We’re getting on the same page in terms of that. We’ve had a kind of ever-changing roster this year, new acquisitions and guys in and out of the lineup. So obviously, I think developing some continuity also helps. I think it’s a combination of things.”
Whatever it is, it’s coming at the right time.
With just seven games remaining on its regular-season schedule, the Heat entered Monday in sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings. Miami is one game ahead of the seventh-place Boston Celtics, with the play-in tournament including the teams with the seventh-highest through the 10th-highest winning percentages in each conference.
“I know our group in the locker room feels really good about the progress we’ve made and improvements we’ve made in the last six weeks,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “So there’s a confidence level there. But you don’t want to get too comfortable. Everything is super competitive.”
How improved has the Heat’s offense been during the past month?
Through the end of March, Miami was shooting 45.7 percent from the field and 34.4 percent on threes while committing 14.8 turnovers per game. Those numbers produced one of the NBA’s worst offensive ratings (107.7 points scored per 100 possessions).
Since the start of April, the Heat is shooting an efficient 48.2 percent from the field and 36.4 percent on threes while committing only 12.4 turnovers per game in the past 17 games. Miami’s offensive rating (114.8 points scored per 100 possessions) ranks 10th during this span.
“It’s a little bit of everything,” Spoelstra said when asked about the Heat’s recent offensive uptick. “I think committing to the process of getting better and getting on the same page, being intentional every single possession of trying to get to our strengths and doing things with purpose. All those hopefully are getting better from month to month. Then there’s just a flow or a karma to it when you’re doing things that are in your wheelhouse that the basket and rhythm tends to be better.”
As expected, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler have led the Heat’s offensive push. Butler is averaging a team-high 21.7 points while shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 7.2 assists, and Adebayo is averaging 18.5 points while shooting 58.8 percent from the field and 5.2 assists since the start of April.
Butler has dished out 108 assists to just 27 turnovers during that stretch.
In addition, Kendrick Nunn is averaging 17 points on 53.7 percent shooting from the field and 42.7 percent on threes, and Robinson is averaging 13.4 points while shooting 42.2 percent on threes since the start of April.
Here are some other factors behind the Heat’s recent offensive resurgence:
▪ The Heat has been better at surviving the non-Adebayo minutes.
Miami has scored 105.5 points per 100 possessions with Adebayo off the court this season. But since the start of April, the Heat has scored 115.7 points per 100 possessions without Adebayo playing.
A big part of that improvement is newly acquired Heat backup center Dewayne Dedmon, who has played in 10 games since signing with Miami last month. Dedmon, who has recently played most of the center minutes when Adebayo has been on the bench, owns a plus/minus of plus-54.
▪ The Heat’s shot diet has been more efficient. Miami is attempting 35.1 percent of its shots from around the rim and 26.2 percent of its shots from midrange since the start of April, compared to 32.7 percent from around the rim and 27.4 percent from midrange for the season, according to Cleaning the Glass.
More shots at the rim and fewer midrange attempts have led to the Heat recording the NBA’s fourth-best location effective field-goal percentage (a predictor of what a team’s effective field-goal percentage would be if it shot the league average at each location based on their shot selection). Miami ranks 15th in this category for the season.
▪ The Heat’s half-court offense has also been steadily improving recently, with the Heat scoring 115.9 points per 100 possessions in half-court sets since the start of April, according to Cleaning the Glass. Miami’s half-court offense has scored 110.8 points per 100 possessions for the season.
The Heat’s offense has also received a major boost from its defense.
Miami ranks first in the league since the start of April with 3.1 points added per 100 possessions through transition plays that have come off of steals, according to Cleaning the Glass. The league average in this department is 1.5 points added, and the Heat is averaging 1.6 points added per 100 possessions through transition plays off of steals for the season.
“Defense,” Adebayo said when asked to explain the Heat’s offensive improvement. “Just by active hands, getting deflections, and we’re able to run out and get easy transition buckets. That adds on to our offense. But yeah, our defense is really leading us home. We just need to keep locking and keep getting stops and getting deflections so we can get easy baskets and run on misses.”
Butler agreed.
“We’re making shots. But we’re getting stops,” Butler said. “I think whenever we get stops and we’re playing in the open floor and in transition, it looks like we’re a much better offensive team because we get a lot more easy baskets. Then whenever we do not get stops and we’re taking the ball out the net, it gets difficult for us.”
All of this has come with Heat rotation guards Victor Oladipo missing the past 13 games and Tyler Herro missing six of the past eight games.
Efficient offense was a big part of the Heat’s winning formula just a year ago, as it finished last regular season with the NBA’s seventh-best offensive rating in large part because of three-point shooting. Miami has struggled to replicate those results this season.
But with the Heat already featuring a top-10 defense this season, the recent offensive revival could change the complexion of the team entering the postseason if it can be sustained moving forward.
“You want to be playing your best basketball at the right time,” Butler said. “I’m praying, I’m hoping right now is the right time for us to be playing our best basketball.”
INJURY UPDATE
The Heat listed Herro (right foot soreness) and Oladipo (right knee soreness) as out for Tuesday’s matchup against the Mavericks. Herro will miss his sixth consecutive game and Oladipo will miss his 14th consecutive game.
In addition, veteran forward Andre Iguodala is questionable because of left hip soreness. Iguodala has missed six games in the past two months because of the hip issue.
The Mavericks listed center Kristaps Porzingis as doubtful with right knee soreness and forward Maxi Kleber as questionable with right Achilles soreness. Rookie Tyrell Terry will miss the game because of personal reasons.
This story was originally published May 3, 2021 at 12:55 PM.
