What does Heat need to continue trending in positive direction after break? Here’s a look
The Miami Heat is trending in a positive direction after an alarmingly slow start.
The Heat (18-18) entered the All-Star break with seven wins in the past eight games, and it has also won 11 of the past 15 games since a 7-14 start to the season to get back to .500. Miami sits in sixth place in the Eastern Conference standings, one game behind the fourth-place Boston Celtics but also only two games ahead of the 11th-place Atlanta Hawks.
Despite the Heat’s early season struggles, it’s still in position to finish near the top of the East standings, and possibly enter the playoffs with home-court advantage in the first round.
But there’s obviously still room for improvement. Miami reached the midway point of the season with the NBA’s 22nd-best net rating.
After nearly a week off for the All-Star break, the Heat is expected to return to practice on Wednesday before resuming its schedule Thursday night against the Orlando Magic at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Here are some Heat needs for the second half of the season, and a lot of them come down to health:
▪ A healthy Jimmy Butler: This one is obvious. Butler, a five-time All-Star, is the Heat’s best player. He missed 14 games during the first half of the season. As expected, Miami was a much better team when Butler was available. The Heat is 14-8 in games Butler has played in this season and 4-10 in games that he has missed. The Heat has also outscored opponents by 5.4 points per 100 possessions with Butler on the court, but it has been outscored by 6.9 points when Butler is not on the court. A healthy and available Butler is an essential part of the Heat’s winning formula, especially against the league’s top teams and in the playoffs.
▪ A healthy Bam Adebayo: This is pretty important, too. Adebayo and Butler are the Heat’s two best players, and it will need both on the court to meet expectations this season. Much of Miami’s offense runs through Adebayo at the high post, and he also helps to anchor the Heat’s top-10 defense with his ability to switch and defend essentially every player on the court. The good news for the Heat is that Adebayo rarely misses games. But he just missed his first game because of a legitimate injury since his rookie season in 2017-18 on Thursday — Miami’s final game before the break. He was unavailable because of left knee tendinitis. The Heat’s hope is that it remains a minor issue.
▪ A more efficient offense: Offense was expected to again be a strength for the Heat season after it finished last season with the NBA’s seventh-best offensive rating (scoring 111.9 points per 100 possessions). But through the first 36 games this season, Miami ranks 25th in this category with 107.7 points scored per 100 possessions. Why has there been such a drastic dip in production? One, the Heat has not been as efficient from behind the three-point line. Miami, led by sharpshooter Duncan Robinson, closed last season with the league’s second-best three-point percentage at 37.9, and it ranks 22nd (35.3 percent) in that category this season. The 14 games that Butler missed didn’t help either, as his ability to draw fouls and get into the paint help the offense function.
▪ A consistent and reliable starting lineup: The Heat used 18 different starting lineups in 36 games during the first half of the season. That’s a lot. Some of that had to do with injuries and protocol-related absences, but the early season struggles also had Spoelstra working through different lineup combinations in an effort to find net-positive groups. For now, the starting group the Heat has seemed to settle on when the entire roster is healthy is Kendrick Nunn, Robinson, Butler, Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk. This lineup has been used to start a team-high 11 games this season, with no other Heat lineup used to start more than five games. The Nunn-Robinson-Butler-Adebayo-Olynyk combination is a plus-11 in 142 minutes this season. A consistent starting lineup is important because that stability usually extends to the rest of the rotation.
▪ Inefficient three-point shooting from opponents: While three-point shooting is an important part of the Heat’s offense, opponent three-point shooting is just as critical to the Heat’s defense. Why? Miami’s top defensive priority is to close off driving lanes and limit opportunities around the rim even if it means allowing an opponent to shoot a bunch of threes. The Heat is limiting opponents to the second-fewest shot attempts per game from inside the restricted area (22.7) while also allowing teams to average the most three-point shot attempts per game (40.9) in the NBA this season. Because Miami’s defensive design usually forces opponents to take a lot of threes, the opponent’s three-point percentage is usually a reliable indicator of how a game is going for the Heat. When the opponent shoots 40 percent or better from deep, the Heat is 1-8 this season.
▪ Another reliable forward: Jae Crowder left behind a noticeable void when he signed with the Phoenix Suns in free agency this past offseason. Miami is in need of a small-ball power forward who can make outside shots and is switchable on defense. For now, the Heat is starting Olynyk alongside Adebayo and often closing games with veteran Andre Iguodala in that four spot. Moe Harkless, KZ Okpala and Meyers Leonard are among the others who have been used in that role this season, but none have stuck yet and Leonard is out for the rest of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. Among those who could potentially fill this need are San Antonio’s Rudy Gay, Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes, Houston’s P.J. Tucker and Cleveland’s Larry Nance Jr. The Heat has a few exceptions to work with if it wants to make a roster move.
▪ More Adebayo-Butler-Goran Dragic minutes: This core trio, which was the catalyst behind the Heat’s playoff run to the NBA Finals, has played just 79 minutes together this season. The Adebayo-Butler-Dragic combination was a plus-83 in 352 minutes during last season’s playoff run. But with Butler and Dragic each already missing 14 games this season, the Heat has only had Adebayo, Butler and Dragic all available in 11 of its first 36 games. For the Heat to reach its ceiling, this trio needs to be available more often than not.
▪ A healthy Avery Bradley (and roster): During a season being playing in the middle of a pandemic, roster continuity has been hard to achieve for many teams. But the Heat has been among the hardest hit by injury and COVID-19 protocol-related issues. Along with the extended absences of Butler and Dragic, veteran guard Avery Bradley has been limited to just 10 games this season after a COVID-19 diagnosis forced him to miss eight consecutive games in January and a right calf strain forced him to miss the final 15 games before the All-Star break. Bradley, who signed with Miami as a free agent this past offseason, is expected to be an important part of the bench rotation when healthy with his offensive versatility and elite defensive skill. There’s optimism he will be available soon after the Heat returns from the break. Also, second-year guard Tyler Herro has already missed 11 games this season.
