How can Miami upset LeBron and Lakers? Heat’s 3-point shooting could be the difference
Here are five questions surrounding this season’s NBA Finals, with answers on what to expect in the Miami Heat-Los Angeles Lakers series:
The Lakers won both of their regular-season matchups against the Heat. What does that mean for the series?
Not much. The first game was back in November on the second night of a back-to-back for the Heat and the second game was in December. That’s months before Miami made its February trade to acquire Jae Crowder, Solomon Hill and Andre Iguodala — a move that bolstered the roster.
The Lakers outscored the Heat by a total score of 208-190 and recorded a +9.3 net rating in their two regular-season meetings.
The Heat enters the series as a heavy underdog. Does Miami have a realistic shot at winning the series?
At this point, it would be unwise to doubt the Heat. Miami has entered its past two playoff series — vs. Milwaukee Bucks and vs. Boston Celtics — as the underdog and won both.
The Lakers, statistically, have the two best players in the series with All-Stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James leading the way. But the Heat may have the next best four or five best players in the series because of the drop-off from Davis and James to the Lakers’ third-best player, which box plus/minus says is Danny Green.
This depth could help the Heat in a long series and late in games. Miami’s shooting also could play an important role in a potential upset.
The Heat finished the regular season with the second-best team three-point percentage (37.9), and it made 14.1 threes per game and shot 38 percent from deep in the first two rounds of the playoffs. The Lakers finished the regular season averaging 11 made threes per game with a three-point percentage (34.9) that ranked 21st.
It’s simple math: Threes are worth more than twos, and efficient three-point shooting will likely need to be part of the Heat’s formula to defeat a team led by Davis and James.
Who will defend LeBron, and what can the Heat do to limit Davis?
One advantage the Heat has on most teams is it has a few capable defenders it can use against James. Among those who could be used to guard James in the Finals: Crowder, Jimmy Butler, Iguodala and even Solomon Hill and Derrick Jones Jr. There’s also Bam Adebayo, who can switch onto James and is an intriguing option to defend the four-time MVP.
Iguodala has had some success in defending James over the years. Iguodala was named the Finals MVP in 2015 largely because of his success in helping to limit James to 39.8 percent shooting in the series.
According to ESPN, Iguodala has held James to 44 percent shooting on 139 field goal attempts when guarding LeBron since 2015. He’ll likely be among a handful of players asked to defend James in these NBA Finals.
The Heat’s strategy against James will likely be similar to the one it used against Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Build a wall with multiple defenders to keep him out of the paint as much as possible and force him into jump shots.
The problem for the Heat is the Lakers have a second superstar it has to account for in Davis, who averaged 29.5 points on 59.5 percent shooting against Miami in the regular season. Adebayo, the Heat’s best defender, will be used against Davis in important moments.
Also, this could be another series the Heat uses its zone defense for extended stretches in an effort to force the Lakers into outside shots.
Something else worth noting: The Heat’s defense will be the best one the Lakers have faced this postseason. Los Angeles has matched up against the Portland Trail Blazers (27th-best defensive rating in the regular season), Houston Rockets (15th best) and Denver Nuggets (16th best) on its way to the Finals.
Can the Heat continue to dominate fourth quarters?
One of the biggest keys to Miami’s success this postseason has been its ability to consistently win fourth quarters.
The Heat was actually outscored by one point in the Eastern Conference finals, but it was the much better team in the fourth quarter. Miami outscored Boston by 22 points in the fourth quarter during the six-game series.
Miami has been an excellent late-game team all postseason, outscoring opponents by 17.8 points per 100 possessions in fourth quarters during the playoffs. That’s a big improvement from the regular season, when the Heat was outscored by 5.8 points in fourth quarters.
Outplaying James and Davis late in games will be a tougher challenge for Miami. The Lakers outscored opponents by 6.1 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter during the regular season.
Who is the most important player for the Heat in this series?
It sounds obvious, but Miami’s All-Star duo of Adebayo and Butler will be especially important in the Finals. To defeat a team that features arguably two of the league’s top-five players like the Lakers do, the Heat needs its stars to play like stars consistently to keep up.
Adebayo is averaging 18.5 points on 57.1 percent shooting, 11.4 rebounds and 4.9 assists this postseason.
Butler is averaging 20.7 points on 45.7 percent shooting, 5.7 rebounds and 4.5 assists this postseason.
With Adebayo and Butler on the court together, the Heat has outscored opponents by 99 points in the playoffs.
The Lakers have outscored opponents by 114 points with its All-Star duo of Davis and James on the court together.
This story was originally published September 29, 2020 at 10:38 AM.
