A closer look at Heat’s playoffs series vs. Celtics, and why it’s ‘guard-your-yard time’
The Miami Heat and Boston Celtics are about to begin the next chapter of their playoff rivalry.
The fifth-seeded Heat and third-seeded Celtics begin their best-of-7 Eastern Conference finals series on Tuesday at 6:30 p.m. (ESPN) at Disney’s Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista. It marks the fourth time Miami and Boston have faced off in the playoffs, and the second time the two teams have met in the conference finals.
In the previous three playoff series between the Heat and Celtics, Miami won two of them. The Celtics won a first-round series against the Heat in 2010, but Miami won the next two playoff series against Boston during the Big 3 era (a second-round series in 2011 and the conference finals in 2012).
“You’re not expecting it to be easy,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after Monday’s practice of this year’s series against the Celtics. “When you get to the conference finals, there are four teams left and it’s not like the NCAA Tournament, where you can just get hot for three weeks. You have to be a good team that has proved it for months, that you’ve earned that right. So the last four teams should be the teams that have the most complexity and we feel that way. Boston is a really good team. They’re talented. They play the right way. They defend. Really well coached. You can’t expect there to be pushovers when you get to this point.”
Here are six questions surrounding this season’s playoff matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-Celtics series:
The Celtics are the only Eastern Conference team that beat the Heat multiple times in the regular season. What does that mean for the series?
Not much, considering the Heat looks very different entering the East finals than it did in the regular season. Miami also played each of its three regular-season games against Boston on the second night of a back-to-back set. Yes, the Celtics seem to be a challenging matchup for the Heat for various reasons, including the fact they’re one of only two NBA teams that finished the regular season with a top-five offensive rating and defensive rating, along with the Los Angeles Clippers. But Miami is also now better suited to deal with Boston’s small-ball approach after moving Jae Crowder into the starting lineup.
Here’s a glance at what happened when the Heat and Celtics faced off during the regular season ...
Game 1, Dec. 4: The Heat fell to the Celtics 112-93 at TD Garden in Boston. Jimmy Butler led Miami with 37 points, and Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker combined to score 59 points for Boston.
Guard Marcus Smart and forward Gordon Hayward did not play for the Celtics in that game because of injuries, and Goran Dragic missed the contest for the Heat because of a strained groin. Also, Justise Winslow, who has since been traded to the Memphis Grizzlies, played 31 minutes for Miami and Meyers Leonard was still in the Heat’s starting lineup.
Game 2, Jan. 28: The Heat lost to the Celtics 109-101 at AmericanAirlines Arena. Miami cut the deficit to five points with 2:43 to play, but Boston held on for the win behind 29 points from Hayward and 25 points from Brown.
That game did not include Celtics star Jayson Tatum (right groin strain). Also, James Johnson and Dion Waiters, who have both since been traded, were in the Heat’s rotation while Leonard was still in his starting role.
Game 3, Aug. 4: The Heat’s only win over the Celtics came in the teams’ third and final meeting of the regular season, when Miami picked up a 112-106 victory during seeding play at Disney. Butler was unavailable for that contest because of right ankle soreness, but both rosters and rotations looked closer to what they do entering the East finals with Crowder in the starting lineup.
Overall: The Celtics outscored the Heat by a total score of 327-306 and recorded a +7.3 net rating in their three regular-season meetings.
“You almost can’t draw anything from those games because there are so many moving parts that are different than they are now,” Spoelstra said.
What’s the injury situation for both teams entering the East finals?
The Heat expects to have its full rotation available for the start of the series. Miami’s only player on the injury report for Game 1 is rookie center Chris Silva, who remains out because of a groin injury.
Meanwhile, the Celtics will be without one rotation player for Game 1 of the conference finals. Hayward has missed most of the playoffs after spraining his right ankle in Boston’s postseason opener, and he has been ruled out for Tuesday’s contest.
Celtics coach Brad Stevens said he expects Hayward to “play at some point in this series.”
How does the Heat’s offense match up against the Celtics?
This is going to be the toughest playoff test yet for Miami’s quality offense.
Boston finished the regular season with the NBA’s fourth-best defensive rating (allowing 106.5 points per 100 possessions) and has recorded the league’s best defensive rating in the playoffs (allowing 101.9 points per 100 possessions).
The Celtics have a variety of capable perimeter defenders they can throw at the Heat’s offensive weapons. Smart was voted onto the this season’s NBA All-Defensive First Team, and Brown and Tatum were among those who received votes for the All-Defensive honor.
“If you’re not detailed and if you’re just kind of out there mindlessly cutting and running around, they can flatten you out a lot and take away a lot of triggers and advantages,” Duncan Robinson said of Boston’s defense. “It’s all about really getting an understanding of what it is they’re trying to do so you can try to combat it.”
If there’s one thing the Heat’s offense can try to take advantage of, it’s the Celtics’ lack of size. Center Daniel Theis and Tatum are the two tallest players in Boston’s starting lineup at 6-8.
And as good as the Celtics’ defense is, the Heat’s offense is really good, too.
Miami finished the regular season with the seventh-best offensive rating, and it has posted the NBA’s fourth-best offensive rating in the playoffs. The Heat’s three-point shooting is one of its biggest offensive strengths, closing the regular season with the league’s second-best team three-point percentage (37.9) and also shooting 38 percent in the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Boston’s length on the perimeter, ability to switch on screens and aggressiveness will test Miami’s ability to consistently generate open looks from deep. The Celtics allowed the 15th-most three-point attempts (34.8 per game) in the NBA in the regular season, limiting opponents to the second-worst three-point percentage (34).
In addition, Boston has held opponents to an NBA-worst 30.5 percent shooting on threes this postseason.
With the Celtics expected to use this trait of their defense to disrupt the Heat’s three-point shooting in this series, Miami All-Star center Bam Adebayo will be very important.
Adebayo has to make Boston pay for its lack of size whenever possible, finding mismatches against the Celtics’ switch-heavy defense and taking advantage just like he did in the teams’ final regular-season meeting of the season when he took a season-high 18 free-throw attempts to finish with 21 points and 12 rebounds. That could mean getting into the paint and scoring over a smaller defender, drawing a bunch of fouls, or passing to an open shooter whenever multiple defenders come his way.
“They try to do a lot of switching,” Adebayo said. “So a lot of times, a lot off dudes get cross-matched and I get that easy basket, or just being aggressive and get a foul. You just got to be real detailed.”
Continuous and relentless off-ball movement are always important for the Heat’s offense, but especially in this series because the Celtics’ defense can flatten offenses out very easily because of its ability to switch almost every action on the court. The margin is so thin, it could come down to how effective Miami’s best isolation players (Adebayo, Butler, Dragic and Tyler Herro) are as creators and shot makers against Boston’s elite defense in important moments.
“It starts with maximum effort,” Stevens said of defending the Heat. “It starts with making sure that everybody is where they’re supposed to be and where we need to be reliably on every possession. Because if you’re off of them, if you’re not solid, if you’re not communicating, you’re going to be in the blender with the way that they move. We got to make sure that we’re back and we’re impactful.”
How does the Heat’s defense match up against the Celtics?
Miami didn’t have to deal with an elite offensive player in the first round against the Indiana Pacers, especially because guard Victor Oladipo was still working his way back from a serious injury. Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo posed a significant challenge in the second round, but he didn’t have much help around him other than fellow All-Star Khris Middleton.
The Celtics are a new type of challenge for the Heat’s defense, and it looks to be the toughest one yet this postseason.
Boston’s offense features a variety of weapons on the perimeter, as five players averaged double-digit points in the regular season — Tatum (23.4 points per game), Walker (20.4), Brown (20.3), Hayward (17.5) and Smart (12.9) — and all five can score and create for others off the dribble. The Celtics closed the regular season with the fourth-best offensive rating in the NBA.
Boston’s array of offensive weapons will put a lot of pressure on Miami’s individual defenders. It’s easier to hide weaker defenders when there’s only one or two quality offensive playmakers to guard against, but the Celtics could have up to four on the court at a time in this series.
What does this mean for the Heat’s defense?
There are layers to it, but basically: Miami will have a hard time avoiding mismatches on the perimeter because Boston has so many attackers.
“I feel like this [series] is going to be a lot of guard-your-yard time,” Adebayo said “You got help defense, but you, yourself, have to get that stop. And I feel this is what this series is going to be like, just one-on-one basketball, you’ve got to win your matchup. You’ve got to make shots tough. You’ve got to contest shots. You’ve got to make it hard for them. We know if any of those guys get in a flow, they can go off for 30-plus.”
The Pacers hunted Heat defensive switches they considered mismatches, and the Celtics are expected to do the same. The Pacers specifically worked to isolate Herro and Robinson on the defensive end, and Herro and Robinson struggled at times.
In their Jan. 28 matchup, the Celtics found ways to get Robinson on Hayward and took advantage. Hayward finished with 29 points on 10-of-14 shooting from the field and 8-of-10 shooting from the free-throw line.
According to the NBA’s tracking stats, Hayward scored 13 points in the nine possessions he was defended by Robinson.
Boston will surely do the same in this series, whether it’s with Tatum, Walker, Brown, Hayward or Smart.
How will Miami send help when its defenders are on an isolation island, with so many other capable offensive players on the court for Boston? That’s an important question.
“By the time you get to the conference finals, you can’t hide,” Spoelstra said. “It’s not like your opponent isn’t going to be experienced on how to try to exploit you. You have to have the right kind of habits and hopefully have been tested enough in those habits during the course of the year and early rounds of the playoffs to be able to still get to your identity.”
The good news for the Heat is its defense has been very good this postseason. After finishing the regular season with somewhat mediocre defensive numbers, Miami has recorded the NBA’s fourth-best defensive rating in the playoffs (allowing 105.4 points per 100 possessions).
What’s behind the Heat’s defensive improvement?
A starting lineup change made the Heat a more versatile team. Crowder moved into the starting lineup for Leonard, and Miami’s defense immediately became a more switchable unit that can flatten offenses just like Boston’s defense.
That schematic shift should help in this matchup. What used to be an open Walker runner against the Heat’s drop coverage in the regular season will now be met with a switch that should close the open driving lane most of the time.
The Heat’s switch-heavy defense has also resulted in fewer three-point shot attempts allowed. Miami gave up the third-most three-point attempts in the league in the regular season at 37.7 per game, and it has allowed the fewest three-point attempts in the playoffs at 32.6 per game.
But Miami won’t just switch every Boston action. There will be a strategy behind it, just like the Heat never switched Robinson, Herro or Dragic onto Antetokounmpo in the second round. Spoelstra will implement defensive rules, and Miami will have to follow and execute them to have success.
One of those rules could be to get the ball out of Tatum’s hands, just like the Toronto Raptors sent double teams and traps at Tatum in the second round. Tatum has averaged 25.3 points while shooting 44.7 percent from the field and 41.9 percent on threes this postseason.
Also, don’t be surprised to see the Heat turn to its zone defense during stretches in this series to help close driving lines for the Celtics’ attackers. Boston has the NBA’s fourth-worst three-point percentage in the playoffs (34.1).
Which team has the better bench?
In a series with few clear advantages on either side, the Heat’s bench is one of its biggest advantages entering the conference finals.
Miami’s depth is a strength, and that has been well-chronicled at this point.
The Heat has used a nine-man rotation for most of the playoffs: A starting lineup of Dragic, Robinson, Butler, Crowder and Adebayo with a bench rotation of Herro, Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk and either Kendrick Nunn or Derrick Jones Jr.
Miami’s reserves have combined to average 29.7 points on 44.1 percent shooting, 14.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game this postseason. The Heat’s bench has combined to post an NBA-best plus/minus of plus-31 in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Celtics’ depth off the bench has been questionable all season, and especially right now with Hayward’s status in question for the series because of an ankle injury. Four Boston players — Tatum, Walker, Brown and Smart — averaged 39 or more minutes in their seven-game second-round series against the Raptors.
With Hayward out, the Celtics used a starting lineup of Walker, Smart, Tatum, Brown and Theis in the second round. The bench rotation included Robert Williams III, Brad Wanamaker, Semi Ojeleye and Grant Williams, and none of the reserves averaged more than 5.7 points per game in the series.
How will the series play out?
This one is too close to call. But the prediction is for the series to go a full seven games.
There’s going to be some old school in this series, with two very methodical and well-coached teams facing off that execute at a high level on both ends of the court. Both teams play at a slower pace than most.
But there will also be some modern elements of the game, too, with both teams featuring switch-heavy defenses, versatile wings and an array of shooters.
Expect close scores and a lot of late-game drama. The margin for error is razor thin for both teams in this series.
This story was originally published September 14, 2020 at 4:41 PM.
