A look at an important part of the Heat’s winning formula vs. Bucks and Antetokounmpo
To say the Miami Heat is a bad matchup for the Milwaukee Bucks is no longer a hot take.
Not only does the fifth-seeded Heat hold a 2-0 lead in its second-round playoff series against the top-seeded Bucks following Wednesday’s Game 2 win, but Miami has now won four of its five games against Milwaukee this season.
The Heat is the only Eastern Conference team to defeat the Bucks, which posted the NBA’s top regular season record at 56-17, multiple times this season.
“Bucks didn’t wanna see this matchup in the 2nd round,” retired Heat star Dwyane Wade tweeted after his former team’s Game 2 win. “They are gonna have to earn this series. Ain’t no fear factor from [the Miami Heat].”
The Heat will try to continue its winning ways against the Bucks in Game 3 on Friday at 6:30 p.m. (TNT).
It’s not just against Milwaukee, though. Miami has posted a 14-5 combined record against the top four seeds in the Eastern Conference, including the regular season and playoffs.
What makes the Heat such a difficult matchup for reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, specifically?
It’s hard to pinpoint all of the reasons from their regular season meetings, considering the Heat was without Jimmy Butler for two of the games and the Bucks played one of the games on the second night of a back-to-back set. Also, Miami is just a different team after acquiring Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala in February.
But the Heat’s formula in the first two games of its playoff series against the Bucks is clear: Control the tempo, slow the game down and force Milwaukee to execute in the half-court.
The Bucks played at the league’s fastest pace in the regular season, averaging 105.5 possessions per 48 minutes. Meanwhile, the Heat played at the NBA’s fourth-slowest pace in the regular season, averaging 98.7 possessions per 48 minutes.
So far, their playoff matchups have been played at Miami’s speed. The teams are averaging 98.8 possessions per 48 minutes in the first two games of the series.
The effect that has had on both teams — positive for the Heat and negative for the Bucks — has been hard to miss.
Milwaukee, which averaged the third-most fast-break points in the regular season at 18 per game, scored just nine transition points in Game 2 and is averaging 12 fast-break points in the series.
In fact, it has been the Heat that has capitalized on easy points in transition. Miami outscored Milwaukee 17-9 in fast-break points in Game 2, with the help of 12 live-ball turnovers from the Bucks.
Slowing the pace has forced Milwaukee’s offense to execute against a set Miami defense that has worked to wall off the paint against Antetokounmpo, who averaged an NBA-high 17.5 paint points per game in the regular season.
After scoring just six paint points in Game 1, Antetokounmpo bounced back with 20 paint points in Game 2. But he struggled whenever the Heat forced him to take an outside shot, as the Bucks superstar missed each of his seven shots that came from outside the restricted area Wednesday.
Milwaukee didn’t shoot well as a team in Game 2. The Bucks shot 11 of 42 (26.2 percent) on non-paint looks on Wednesday and their turnovers helped the Heat score easy points on the other end.
Antetokounmpo was a minus-14 in Game 1 and minus-7 in Game 2. It’s the first time he has finished with a negative plus/minus in consecutive games since last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, when the Bucks lost to the Toronto Raptors.
“We’re just trying to get back,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “Trying to just get in the gaps, making it hard for them, make it tough for them. Try to make somebody else beat us. And from that point on we’re just going to keep building the wall and keep trying to execute our defense.”
For Miami to control the tempo, it has had to sprint back on defense after missed shots, avoid live-ball turnovers and make a high percentage of its shots. The Heat has averaged just 13 turnovers and has committed only a combined 12 live-ball turnovers in the first two games, while making 46.1 percent of its shots and averaging 29.5 free-throw attempts per game in the series.
“Limiting the mistakes that give them opportunities in the open court, that’s critical,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “They’re really fast. Obviously, when Giannis or [Eric] Bledsoe can get down hill, they’re putting some pressure on your defense. So your execution and doing it with purpose and not getting knocked off your spots and not losing detail because of their pressure, those are important.”
According to stats provided by Cleaning the Glass, the Heat has been the better half-court team in both games. Miami scored 98.9 points per 100 half-court plays compared to 89.8 for Milwaukee in Game 2, and the Heat also finished Game 1 with a 105.7 to 103.4 advantage in that department.
“I think the Heat is doing a great job at making us play in crowds, making us unsure a little bit,” Bucks All-Star forward Khris Middleton said after Game 2. “It starts with our defense. First you gotta get stops. On the offensive end, we just gotta play with more tempo. The Heat is doing a great job of slowing us down and making us play a little bit more in the half court.”
Three-pointers also helped the Heat on Wednesday. Miami shot 17 of 45 on threes, outscoring Milwaukee 51-21 from three-point range to help negate the Bucks’ 52-32 edge in paint points in Game 2.
Outside shooting was expected to be important for Miami entering the series. The Bucks defense gave up the most three-point attempts in the league (39.3 per game) in the regular season as it focused on deterring teams from the paint, while the Heat finished the regular season with the NBA’s second-best team three-point percentage (37.9)
But controlling the pace has also been an important factor for Miami to begin this series. The Bucks played only five regular season games at a pace slower than 100 possessions per 48 minutes, and they posted a 2-3 record in those games.
“It’s about us. It’s always going to be about us,” Antetokounmpo said when asked if the Heat is simply a bad matchup for the Bucks. “That’s why we practice and that’s why we go through our game plan. That’s why we got to come out and play harder. That’s why we got to make more shots. It’s always going to be about us. It’s not about what the other team is going to do.”
To start the series, it has been about the Heat. It has been about Miami’s ability to dictate the speed of the game and make Milwaukee uncomfortable.
“You don’t get too crazy about it,” Spoelstra said of the Heat’s 2-0 series lead. “The guys that have been around for a long time know how tough a seven-game series is. So I think our veteran guys will be able to express that to everybody. Our guys know what this is about. We have a deep healthy respect for our opponent.”
