A closer look at Heat’s playoff series vs. Pacers, with answers to 10 important questions
The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers begin their best-of-7 first-round playoff series on Tuesday at Disney’s Wide World of Sports Complex in Lake Buena Vista.
Here are 10 questions surrounding the matchup, with answers on what to expect in the Heat-Pacers series:
The Heat had success against the Pacers during the regular season. What does that mean for the series?
The fact Miami won its season series against Indiana 3-1 should definitely not be ignored, but it’s not the best indicator of what will happen when the playoffs begin. Both teams look different than earlier in the season, and postseason basketball is just different. Here’s a glace at what happened when the Heat and Pacers faced off during the regular season ...
Game 1, Dec. 27: Entering on a three-game winning streak, the Heat edged out a 113-112 win against the Pacers at AmericanAirlines Arena with the help of a 9-foot game-winning floater from Goran Dragic with 6.8 seconds remaining. Offensive rebounds from Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler kept Miami’s final offensive possession alive before Dragic hit the shot. The game included 20 lead changes and eight ties. Indiana was without Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo.
Game 2, Jan. 8: The Heat began its three-game road trip with an impressive 122-108 win against the Pacers at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Seven Miami players finished with double-digit points. This was also the game that featured the Butler-T.J. Warren confrontation that’s a major story line entering the series. Indiana was also without Brogdon and Oladipo in this game.
Game 3, Aug. 10: With Butler and Dragic back in the lineup after both missed a few bubble games, the Heat earned a convincing 114-92 win against the Pacers in its first of two seeding matchups at Disney. The score was tied at halftime, but the Heat outscored the Pacers by 14 points in the third quarter to take control of the game.
Game 4, Aug. 14: With their first-round playoff matchup already set, rotation players were held out on both sides to close seeding play at Disney. The Pacers defeated the Heat 109-92. The Heat held out Adebayo, Butler, Jae Crowder and Dragic. In addition, Andre Iguodala did not play despite being available. The Pacers also held out some of their key players, with Oladipo, Myles Turner and Warren not playing.
Overall: The Heat outscored the Pacers by a total score of 441-421 and recorded a +4.2 net rating in their four meetings.
What’s the injury situation for both teams?
The Heat could be without one rotation player entering the series. Forward Derrick Jones Jr., who was expected to play off the bench, is listed as questionable for Game 1 with a neck strain. Rookie guard Gabe Vincent (right shoulder sprain) and rookie forward KZ Okpala (personal reasons) remain out for the first game of the series.
For the Pacers, they are without a starter. All-Star center Domantas Sabonis left the bubble and has not returned because of left foot plantar fasciitis. Also, Jeremy Lamb, who was a key contributor before his February injury, remains out because of a torn ACL. Warren is dealing with plantar fasciitis, but he said Sunday that he’ll be ready to play in Game 1.
How does the Heat’s offense match up against the Pacers?
Miami had very little trouble against Indiana’s defense during the regular season. Take out the teams’ final matchup when starters on both sides sat out, and the Heat posted an elite offensive rating of 117.1 in its first three games against the Pacers this season. To put that number into perspective, the most efficient offense in the league this season (the Dallas Mavericks) finished with an offensive rating of 115.9. Miami’s offensive success came in part because of its usually efficient three-point shooting, as it hit 15 threes per game at a 38.8 percent clip in its first three games against Indiana.
Miami’s offense has been one of the NBA’s best all season, finishing the regular season with the seventh-best offensive rating behind elite three-point shooting (see Duncan Robinson’s insane three-point stats) and ball movement. But Indiana also has one of the NBA’s top defenses this season, posting the sixth-best defensive rating. The Pacers have done a good job of defending the three-point line, limiting opponents to the 12th-fewest three-point attempts per game (33.4) and the fourth-worst three-point percentage (34.1) this season. That trait just hasn’t carried over into Indiana’s matchups against Miami this season. It will be interesting to see if that continues during the series.
How does the Heat’s defense match up against the Pacers?
Miami’s offense has been really good this season, but its defense has been an enigma. There are moments the Heat’s defense looks dominant and there are stretches that it could be considered a team weakness. That’s probably why Miami finished near the middle of the pack in this area, recording the NBA’s 12th-best defensive rating (allowing 109.3 points per 100 possessions) for the season.
Meanwhile, Indiana isn’t a great offensive team. The Pacers own the NBA’s second-best team shooting percentage at 47.6 percent, but they play an inefficient style. During the regular season, Indiana averaged the fewest three-point attempts (28) and free-throw attempts (19.1) per game while taking the second-most mid-range shots (17.3) in the NBA. The result: The Pacers finished the regular season with the 19th-best offensive rating (scoring 109.5 points per 100 possessions).
Teams that have had success against the Heat’s defense this season usually make a high number of threes. In Miami’s losses this season, it has allowed an average of 14.6 made threes on 39 percent shooting from deep. The Heat’s defense gives up a lot of three-point attempts, and Indiana’s offensive profile is not designed to take advantage of that.
Which team has the better bench entering the playoffs?
The Heat. With Lamb and Sabonis out, the Pacers’ depth has been depleted. Indiana’s bench averaged 31.1 points per game during its seeding schedule, compared to 45.6 points from Miami’s reserves during that same stretch. When Warren was not been on the court, Indiana struggled to generate coherent offense during seeding play. The Pacers have been outscored by 13.6 points per 100 possessions in 165 minutes without Warren at Disney.
Indiana’s bench rotation is expected to feature T.J. McConnell, JaKarr Sampson, Justin Holiday, Edmond Sumner and Doug McDermott. Rookie center Goga Bitadze could also get some minutes off the Pacers’ bench.
Meanwhile, the Heat’s bench rotatation will include Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk, Andre Iguodala, either Kendrick Nunn or Dragic (depending on who starts), and Jones when healthy. Herro averaged a team-high 17.3 points while shooting 50.5 percent from the field and 37.8 percent on threes during seeding play.
What did the eight-game seeding schedule at Disney tell us about the Heat and Pacers?
The Heat turned to a smaller starting lineup and leveraged its depth and versatility at the wing positions during seeding play, sliding Crowder into the starting lineup for 7-footer Meyers Leonard. Miami posted a 3-5 record during seeding play with Butler, Dragic and Nunn missing a chunk of games, but it looked like it found something that worked on the defensive end. With Adebayo, Butler and Crowder on the court together during seeding play, Miami posted an elite defensive rating of 97.7 in 64 minutes. Expect this trio to play a lot of minutes together in the playoffs.
Without Sabonis, the Pacers also turned to a smaller starting lineup and posted a 6-2 record during seeding play. When Indiana’s full roster at Disney was available, it started Brogdon, Oladipo, Warren, Aaron Holiday and Myles Turner. For the most part, Indiana’s team profile remained the same during seeding play with a below average offense and an elite defense. But Warren has certainly taken a step forward in the bubble, averaging 31 points while shooting 57.8 percent from the field and 52.4 percent on threes in six seeding games.
What about that Butler-Warren matchup? Who has the edge?
Butler has clearly had the edge up to this point, outscoring Warren 53-31 in their regular-season matchups. Butler has also totaled 26 rebounds, 18 assists and seven steals to Warren’s 13 rebounds, three assists and one steal during that time. Maybe the most telling number: Butler is a plus-44 against the Pacers and Warren is a minus-34 against the Heat this season.
Butler is expected to defend Warren on most possessions when both players are on the court, and the Heat’s All-Star has also had success in this area of the matchup. According to NBA Advanced Stats, Warren has shot just 3 of 9 from the field in the 71 possessions he has been defended by Butler this season.
This shouldn’t be a surprise, considering Butler is an established All-Star in this league while Warren is still looking to make his first All-Star Game. But considering Warren’s offensive surge in the bubble and the Butler-Warren confrontation from earlier this season, this individual matchup will get a lot of attention during the series.
The Heat has multiple wing defenders it can throw at Warren. Crowder, Iguodala and Jones could also see time defending him.
While Butler vs. Warren will get most of the attention, don’t sleep on the Adebayo-Turner matchup. Adebayo was not happy after he was cut from Team USA a year ago, using it as motivation throughout the season. Turner is one the centers who made the team instead of Adebayo.
What’s an under-the-radar advantage the Heat has entering the series?
Rebounding. Indiana has been the NBA’s worst rebounding team in the NBA when Sabonis is not playing, and Sabonis is not expected back any time soon.
That trend continued in the bubble, as the Pacers finished with the second-worst rebounding percentage during seeding games among the 22 teams participating in the restart. Indiana grabbed just 46.4 percent of available rebounds in those eight games.
The Heat took advantage of that weakness in its win over the Pacers last week, outrebounding Indiana 59-45. Miami finished with 13 offensive rebounds to outscore Indiana 28-13 in second-chance points, which also led to the Heat taking 14 more shots than the Pacers in the game.
What’s an under-the-radar advantage the Pacers have entering the series?
As Oladipo continues to work his way back to form after returning earlier this year from a ruptured quad tendon in his right knee, he has played in just one game against the Heat this season. But Indiana seems to have found something that works with the Warren-Oladipo combination, as Indiana outscored opponents by 22 points in 138 minutes when that duo was on the court together during seeding play.
With the Heat barely facing Oladipo this season and Warren currently playing at another level offensively, one could argue this is a more potent Pacers team than the Heat saw in the first few regular-season matchups.
Which team will win the series, and how many games will it take?
The Heat in six games.
Without Sabonis, it’s simply a tough matchup for the Pacers. Miami is the better rebounding team, so it should finish most games with more shot attempts. The Heat is also the more efficient offensive team, taking and making a lot more threes than the Pacers.
More shot attempts for the more efficient offensive team? That’s not good for the Pacers. The math is clearly on Miami’s side, and the margin for error is small for Indiana in this series. So small that it’s hard to envision the Pacers beating the Heat four times in seven games.
This story was originally published August 17, 2020 at 11:19 AM.
