Why will Duncan Robinson play a big role in how Heat’s season ends? A look at the numbers
Miami Heat forward Duncan Robinson was in the middle of a historic three-point shooting season, and then the season was suspended on March 11 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
How does Robinson expect to continue that pace when the NBA season resumes on July 30?
“It’s a challenge, for sure,” Robinson said during a Thursday Zoom call with reporters. “Everybody is going through it in some respect. So obviously, I can only control what I can control. Just focus on trying to stay in rhythm and maintaining my skills and abilities, which obviously the organization has really helped me with. ... Once we’re able to get back and playing 5-on-5, hopefully I can work back into that rhythm.”
Robinson, 26, entered the league shutdown ranked third in the NBA with 243 made threes this season, behind only Houston’s James Harden (271) and Sacramento’s Buddy Hield (244).
Robinson has averaged 13.3 points and 3.3 rebounds in 30 minutes per game in 65 games (60 starts) this season.
“I think I’m capable of maintaining [this pace] and continuing to shoot at a high level,” said Robinson, with the Heat scheduled to bus to Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista on Wednesday to enter the NBA’s quarantine bubble and begin team preparation for the restart. “I’ve also learned not to expect to just make shots. I have to do all the little things to prepare myself for these opportunities.”
Among the 29 players averaging seven or more three-point shot attempts per game this season, Robinson owns the league’s top three-point shooting percentage at 44.8 percent.
Even with 17 regular-season games remaining on the Heat’s schedule when the season was suspended, Robinson had already set a franchise record for threes made in a season. Robinson, who will surely have his nonguaranteed $1.6 million salary for next season guaranteed by the Heat, surpassed the previous franchise mark of 227 threes set by Wayne Ellington in the 2017-18 season.
Robinson, who is in his first full NBA season after going undrafted in 2018 and spending most of last season in the G League, was on track to finish the 82-game schedule with 306 made threes. If Robinson would have hit that number, he would have joined Golden State’s Stephen Curry and Harden as the only players in NBA history to make more than 300 threes in a season.
“A combination of things,” Robinson said of what has been behind his success. “Part of it being just continuing to get more and more comfortable with my teammates and also with this level. Having some guys go down and having a little bit more opportunity just from a role standpoint also. Also, you just go through stretches where you make shots. Sometimes you can’t necessarily control that.”
With one of the league’s top shooters on the roster, the three-pointer has become an important part of an improved Heat offense. Miami is shooting a league-best 38.3 percent on threes this season, while making the sixth-most threes per game (13.4).
The result: The Heat owns the NBA’s seventh-best offensive rating this season, averaging 112.2 points per 100 possessions.
That’s a big improvement from last season, when Miami made 11.3 threes per game at a 34.9 percent clip. The Heat posted the league’s fifth-worst offensive rating in the league last season.
Robinson’s emergence is a big part of the Heat’s offensive growth, as he owns a team-best plus/minus of plus-315 this season. It’s the 12th-best plus/minus in the NBA.
What do all of these numbers mean?
Three-point shooting is going to play a big role in deciding how the Heat’s season ends at Disney, and Miami needs Robinson’s shooting on the court to be the best version of itself.
“I’m definitely expecting to see something different and just additional focus and attention,” Robinson said of how he expects opponents to defend him when the season resumes. “But it’s going to be on me, obviously, to be more creative.”
Robinson said Heat coaches have given him film edits of catch-and-shoot players such as Ray Allen and Klay Thompson to study during the shutdown.
“I think the biggest thing is just watching guys who excel particularly in playoff situations where the intensity is a lot higher and just being creative in catch-and-shoot actions,” Robinson said.
The Heat’s first of eight “seeding games” at the fanless quarantine-type environment at Disney’s ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex is scheduled for Aug. 1 against the Denver Nuggets. Miami has already clinched a spot in the playoffs, which begin Aug. 17.
“Orlando is a unique situation in that it’s an empty gym” said Robinson, who is preparing for his first NBA postseason experience. “I think maybe myself more than anybody has experience playing in empty gyms, whether it be in the G League or my first stop in college at [Division III Williams College]. I think we had a couple games where there were like under 300 people there, so I’m well equipped to play in empty gyms.”
NBA’S COVID-19 NUMBERS
The NBA and National Basketball Players Association announced Thursday that an additional nine players tested positive for COVID-19 in tests conducted of 344 NBA players between June 24-29. In total, 25 of 351 players have tested positive since mandatory testing began on June 23.
Coach Erik Spoelstra said Wednesday that forward Derrick Jones Jr. is the only Heat player who has tested positive for the virus up to this point. Jones has not returned to work out at the team facility yet, but Spoelstra said Jones is taking part in individual workouts over Zoom while quarantining.
In tests conducted of 884 team staff between June 23-29, 10 have tested positive for COVID-19.
This story was originally published July 2, 2020 at 4:03 PM.
