An in-depth look at the Miami Heat’s crunch-time struggles and some potential solutions
There were signs of trouble for the Miami Heat even as it got off to a torrential start to the season. Before the All-Star break, the Heat was 8-0 in overtime games. Miami’s point differential isn’t quite indicative of its record.
The start of the season sometimes seemed too good to be true and it probably was considering the straits the Heat is fighting through now. Miami (36-22) has lost 7 of 9 and 3 of 4 since the All-Star break, and blown a fourth-quarter lead to one of the worst teams in the NBA in each of those three recent losses.
The Heat’s schedule won’t get easier Friday, either, when the Dallas Mavericks visit Miami at 8 p.m. The Heat’s late-game issues have been glaring and it will try to start fixing them against the Mavericks (36-23) at AmericanAirlines Arena. Take an in-depth look at what has happened in the last four games and some potential solutions:
The offense
The Heat was unusual for the first half of the season. Miami prides itself on its defense, yet it was one of the best offensive teams in the NBA, bombing three-pointers and playing fluid, assist-happy offense. All-Star wing Jimmy Butler was a legitimate go-to scorer with his ability to get to the free-throw line and Tyler Herro was a killer from deep, hitting 53.3-percent of his shots in clutch time — which is defined as any game within five points in the last five minutes or overtime.
The Heat’s defense is still not its strength. The problem is the offense isn’t a strength, either.
This season, Miami averages 112.0 points per 100 possessions, giving it the eighth best offensive rating in the league. In clutch minutes, the number drops to 103.5 points per 100 possessions, which places the Heat outside the top 20. In the clutch minutes of the three losses since NBA All-Star Weekend, Miami is averaging just 77.1 points per 100 possessions.
“We just get this stretch where the ball just stops moving. We get stagnant,” All-Star post player Bam Adebayo said. “I don’t know how to really describe it, but as a player and as a coach we definitely see it, and it’s becoming a problem for us and we just need to figure out different plays, who’s on the floor, what play works with who’s on the floor. And we’ve got to figure that out.”
In these three losses, the Heat’s assist-to-turnover ratio is just 0.83, although its clutch-time assists are just barely down to 1.7 from its season average of 1.8. The more glaring issues are the two turnovers per game in crunch time and a truly abysmal 9.1 three-point percentage with most of the team’s most reliable shooters sitting on the bench.
The defense
The idea Miami had when it dealt for Andre Iguodala and Jae Crowder at the trade deadline was to boost its pedestrian defense with two proven veterans, who have built their reputation on defense. The Heat has frequently used both in closing lineups since the All-Star break and it hasn’t worked as intended.
While Miami’s offense has fallen off a cliff, the defense hasn’t picked up the slack. This season, the Heat is allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions, which puts Miami right in the middle of the pack in defensive rating. In clutch minutes, the number spikes to 116.1 points per 100 possessions, which puts the Heat in the bottom five. In the last four games, the Heat’s defensive rating in clutch time is 138.9.
“Everybody wants to make shots, but usually when our offense is not clicking we went back to our defense,” guard Goran Dragic said after the loss Wednesday. “That’s what we were known for and right now we don’t have it.”
In a 129-126 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday, the defensive breakdowns were frequently in transition because two turnovers on back-to-back possessions led to a Timberwolves three-pointer and and-one for a quick 6-0 run. When Miami blew a 22-point lead in the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Monday, the Cavaliers hunted switches to find a mismatch against Dragic.
No matter what lineup it’s sending out right now, Miami has weaknesses on defense. Even Iguodala and Crowder can’t cover them up.
“I feel like the last couple of games we’ve been lacking communication and it’s been off simple baskets, but those baskets matter at the end of the game, obviously,” Adebayo said, “so I feel like getting a stop is the most important thing because you can win a game shooting below 40 percent as a team and you’ve got to do that by locking down.”
The lineup
Eight different players have played clutch minutes for the Heat since the All-Star break. Adebayo, Crowder and Dragic have both been on the floor almost the entire time, as has Butler when he’s been available — he missed the loss to Cleveland for personal reasons. Iguodala, sharpshooting swingman Duncan Robinson, star rookie Kendrick Nunn and springy forward Derrick Jones Jr. have all played crunch-time minutes, too.
On Wednesday, the Heat tried to swap Iguodala and Nunn depending whether the team was on offense or defense. Iguodala played less than a minute — Miami didn’t score and Minnesota scored nine points.
The sample size is still small for Iguodala and Crowder with the Heat, but their crunch-time minutes haven’t worked. In four clutch minutes since the Feb. 6 trade, opponents are outscoring the Miami by 90.7 points per 100 possessions when Iguodala is on the floor and outscoring the Heat by 62.7 points per 100 possessions when Crowder is on the floor.
They’re the two worst marks on the team, and they have the two worst offensive ratings of anyone healthy and available.
“I try to look at everybody as a two-way player and then whatever’s needed most for that particular game,” Spoelstra said. “Sometimes it’s different based on the opponent and just in the three games that we’ve played, lost since the break that has been the case, but we’ve been in the driver’s seat in all three games. There have been some tough teaching points, learning how to close a game with a fourth-quarter lead and we’ll just keep on working it. That’s part of the development of collective character under adversity and we’re going through that process.”
This story was originally published February 27, 2020 at 5:27 PM.
