What have we learned from Heat’s first 15 games? Observations on offense, Butler and more
During the long NBA season, the big picture can sometimes get lost with so many games to play.
But the Heat’s first 15 games have provided us with some insight of what this team could be moving forward. Miami stands at an impressive 11-4, with a Monday home matchup against the Hornets up next.
What observations can be made from the Heat’s fast start? Here are five ...
1. The offense has been better than expected, and the defense has been as good as expected.
The Heat entered Sunday with the league’s fifth-best defensive rating. A top-five defense should never just be expected because it’s hard to do. But Miami clearly had the potential to be a top-five defense after adding one of the NBA’s top perimeter defenders in Jimmy Butler this past season.
The offense, however, has been a surprise. Even after Saturday’s dismal offensive performance against the 76ers, the Heat entered Sunday with the NBA’s third-best team shooting percentage (47.8) and fourth-best three-point shooting percentage (38.6).
The Heat ranks 14th in offensive rating, which is a big improvement from last season when it finished 26th in this category.
“I think we have more of a dynamic offense now,” Heat center Bam Adebayo said. “We don’t have a certain guy. We’re one of those teams where like everybody on the court is a threat. You can’t just leave somebody, you can’t just back off somebody and help. We’re one of those teams where it’s hard to guard us because everybody can shoot and score and pass. I feel like that’s the biggest thing about our team, we pass the ball and we play with energy.”
It looks like a totally different Heat offense than the one that finished last season ranked 26th in points (105.7), 22nd in shooting percentage (45), 21st in three-point shooting percentage (34.9) and 30th in free-throw percentage (69.5).
Obviously, the addition of an All-Star talent like Butler has helped. But it has been the addition of rookies Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn that has really given the Heat’s offense an unexpected lift.
Herro is averaging 14.1 points on 44.3 percent shooting from the field and 38.9 percent shooting on threes. Nunn is averaging 16.8 points on 47.9 percent shooting from the field and 37.6 percent shooting on threes.
Ball movement has been a strength for the Heat this season, averaging 25.7 assists per game. Miami has already finished four games with 33 or more assists, which is something the Heat did only twice last season.
2. Butler has made a positive impact, but in a somewhat different way than expected.
While Butler leads the Heat in scoring at 18.8 points per game, he also leads the team with 6.7 assists. The four-time All-Star has taken more of a playmaking approach so far, especially with starting point guard Justise Winslow missing 10 of the Heat’s first 15 games due to various injuries.
Butler already has two 13-assist performances this season. He entered the season with just one 13-plus assist game in his NBA career, when he recorded a career-high 14 assists against the Bucks on March 26, 2017 as a member of the Bulls.
“Helped us win,” coach Erik Spoelstra said of how Butler has helped the Heat. “We’ve been looking for a guy like this for a while. He’s a competitive two-way player and he just knows how to win. He knows how to impact winning. He’s a throwback player, almost, just in terms of not caring what his individual statistics are. He’ll impose his will when he needs to.
“If he needs to have a 35-point game like he did in Phoenix, he’ll do that. But he’s distributing the ball, he’s playing effectively as a point guard for us in a role that I’ve had Dwyane [Wade] and LeBron [James] in before. He has gobbled all that up and really helped our young guys gain a lot of confidence in the meantime.”
Defensively, Butler has been as good as advertised. He leads the NBA in steals with 2.8 per game and is limiting those he’s guarding to 34.6 percent shooting this season. Entering Sunday, only Lakers forward Anthony Davis and Trail Blazers guard CJ McCollum have held those they’ve guarded to lower shooting percentages among players who have appeared in at least 10 games.
Add all that up, and Butler has a team-best plus/minus of plus-87.
3. Adebayo has very clearly taken a leap.
In his third NBA season, the 22-year-old Adebayo is averaging career-highs in points (13.9), rebounds (10.1), assists (4.3), steals (1.7), blocks (1.3) and minutes (31.8). He averaged 8.9 points, 7.3 rebounds and 2.2 assists last season.
“He’s going to continue to get better in all aspects because he’s wired the same as all these guys that we’re just talking about,” Spoelstra said of Adebayo. “He has got a great commitment to work and continues to try to get to another level. It’s all about winning with Bam. It’s not about his stats, it’s not about trying to make anybody notice him. He just has a ferocious competitiveness to help this team win. And he’s finding out different ways now for his game to grow to be able to impact winning. That’s the only thing that matters.”
Adebayo is one of only two NBA players averaging at least 13 points, 10 rebounds, four assists, one steal and one block this season. The other name on that list: reigning MVP and Bucks All-Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
In addition, Adebayo has been elite defensively. Those defended by Adebayo have shot 39.2 percent this season, which is 8.1 percent below those players’ usual combined shooting percentage.
Adebayo’s ability to switch onto perimeter players and keep them in front of him helps make Miami an elite defensive team.
“That’s part of his uniqueness. His ability to guard, essentially, one through five,” Spoelstra said. ‘That’s not always what we do to switch. But in certain instances, when we want to just keep the ball in front of us, he affords us that opportunity to do that. He likes to take on that challenge. If we’re able to continue to defend at this level — yeah, I’m not trying to promote it or anything. But yeah, he should be considered for one of those [All-Defensive] teams. He has that kind of impact on our defense.”
4. Turnovers are the one glaring issue the Heat has continuously faced this season.
The Heat entered Sunday averaging a league-high 19.1 turnovers per game. Despite all of the success early on, this has been the one big problem that has followed the Heat throughout the start of the season.
It hasn’t really hurt the Heat too much yet, with Miami posting a 5-1 record in games it commits 20 or more turnovers in so far this season. But it’s definitely not part of a winning formula over the long run, with the Heat owning an all-time record of 100-218 when committing 20 or more turnovers, according to Basketball Reference.
“We talk about it way too often, keeping our turnovers down,” Butler said. “We just got to do better, man. I’m telling you. We got to start taking care of the ball. It’s the same story over and over again. We’re just lucky [we’re making shots]. But we can’t rely on that every single night. We got to rebound, we got to guard and not turn the ball over.”
The Heat’s increased ball movement is likely playing a role in a few of the turnovers. A few extra passes will do that, but the Heat knows an average of 19 turnovers per game is just too much.
5. The Heat’s losses, so far, aren’t bad losses.
Three of the Heat’s four losses this season have come on the second night of a back-to-back set. Miami has played three back-to-backs so far, and all three have resulted in losses on the second night — Oct. 27 loss at Timberwolves, Nov. 8 loss at Lakers and Saturday’s loss at 76ers. All three have also come on the road.
The Heat, which has outscored opponents by 91 points this season, has been outscored by 49 points on the back end of back-to-backs. Miami has 10 remaining back-to-back sets to play.
The Heat’s only loss that didn’t come in a back-to-back situation was its Nov. 5 loss to the Nuggets in Denver. And even that defeat came against a team that posted an NBA-best 34-7 home record last season.
Entering Sunday, the Heat’s four losses have come to teams with a combined record of 44-18 this season.
