Even without Winslow, Heat’s starting five among NBA’s best with ‘hellified shot-maker’
The swap wasn’t exactly natural. Justise Winslow, a point forward, went down with a concussion Nov. 5 and has not played since. The Miami Heat once again had to make a change to the starting lineup.
The choice was Duncan Robinson, a spot-up shooting swingman. Aside from being roughly the same height, the two don’t share much in common. Winslow was the No. 10 pick in the 2015 NBA Draft. Robinson went undrafted in 2018. Winslow is a dynamic defender who turned into a featured ballhandler last year. Robinson spent most of his rookie season in the NBA G League and got a shot in the league primarily because of his potential as a catch-and-shoot weapon from three-point range.
“Dunc is a hellified shot-maker,” star wing Jimmy Butler said, “but he’s actually really, really smart.”
He has also elevated the Heat’s starting lineup to nearly unparalleled heights in the early part of this season. The five-man lineup Miami has started with in Winslow’s absence — Robinson, Butler, point guard Kendrick Nunn, and post players Meyers Leonard and Bam Adebayo — entered Tuesday with the second-highest net rating among five-man lineups with at least 80 minutes played.
Heading into a game against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday at 7:30 p.m. in Miami, the group is averaging 112.6 points per 100 possessions and allowing an average of 88.6. Only the Houston Rockets’ five-man lineup with point guard Russell Westbrook, guard James Harden, wing Danuel House Jr., forward P.J. Tucker, and post player Clint Capela has a better margin than the 24-point difference between average points scored and points allowed for the Heat’s starting five.
“It’s been great,” Robinson said after practice at AmericanAirlines Arena. “I just try to make the most of my opportunities, whatever this team needs me to do. It’s been a collective effort. I think we kind of fit well.”
The fit with Robinson is strangely natural, even, though he’s usually only the eighth or ninth man off the bench when Miami (9-3) is at full strength. Butler and Nunn split time as the primary ballhandler and have two of the three highest usage rates on the team. Adebayo is a willing passer, too, and ranks second among centers in the NBA in assists.
This leaves Robinson and Leonard, who spend a lot of time playing without the ball, which works perfectly for everyone. Robinson and Leonard have the two lowest usage rates on the team among players who have played more than two games. Leonard leads the league in three-point percentage at 61.9. Robinson is shooting 40.6 percent from three-point range on a team-high 8.8 attempts per 36 minutes.
“I’m a floor-spacer, so I kind of let those guys do their job,” Robinson said. “That’s what this team asks me to do — be aggressive when I get the ball and create space for others.”
The Heat just played the Cavaliers (4-9) on Thursday in Cleveland, and the lineup once again got Miami out to a strong start. The Heat opened on a 9-2 run before rookie wing Tyler Herro entered for Robinson with 9:12 left in the first quarter. On Saturday against the New Orleans Pelicans, the starters played an even longer run and led 23-17 when Robinson and Adebayo checked out with 3:46 left in the first.
The defensive ability right now is what has turned this lineup into one of the league’s best. Swapping out Winslow for Robinson should theoretically mean sacrificing defense for offense, but the five-man lineup with Winslow was actually allowing 95.6 points per 100 possessions, albeit in only 24 total minutes this year. The lineup with Winslow was also scoring only 97.9 points per 100 possessions.
Miami doesn’t have to rush to make a decision yet — the Heat already ruled out Winslow for Wednesday — but defense could determine whether the lineup with Robinson can actually work as a long-term viable option or if putting Winslow back in will be a no-brainer.
So far, the Heat has made it work, although there are some signs Miami is getting a little lucky. The Heat is allowing the third most three-point attempts in the league while also holding opponents to a league-low 30.0 percent from three-point range.
“The lineup with Justise in there was effective, too, but right now they’re starting to find some connection, they’re getting comfortable, they’re defending at a high rate, coming out with a great deal of energy at the beginning of the game,” coach Erik Spoelstra said. “Those are all good things.”
This story was originally published November 19, 2019 at 2:43 PM.
