Bol Bol classified as high-risk, high-reward draft prospect. Is he worth risk for Heat?
There are so many aspects of Bol Bol’s game to admire, but there are also red flags.
That’s what makes the 7-foot-2 center out of Oregon a high-risk, high-reward prospect in the June 20 NBA Draft. Bol, 19, is projected by at least one mock draft to be taken by the Heat with the No. 13 pick, and he’s projected by most others to be selected in the Heat’s range.
But any NBA team that’s considering Bol with its first-round pick faces this question: Is Bol worth the risk?
Bol, the son of former NBA center Manute Bol, certainly has unique skills for a player of his size. He’s quick for a 7-footer, can play on the perimeter because of his handle and impressive three-point shot, has the potential to be an elite rim protector and has even drawn comparisons to the player labeled as “The Unicorn” — Kristaps Porzingis.
Bol averaged 21 points on 56.1 percent shooting from the field and 52 percent shooting on threes to go with 9.6 rebounds and 2.7 blocks in just nine games as a freshman at Oregon before sustaining a season-ending left foot injury in December.
That’s where the red flags enter the equation, as durability is already a concern. There’s even some wondering whether Bol will be forced to sit out part or all of his rookie season because of the foot injury that, according to The Oregonian, had him using a scooter and walking boot until late March.
Bol measured at 7-2.5 and 208 pounds with a 7-7 wingspan at the Combine earlier this month. That frame is also worth noting, with the 6-4 Dwyane Wade listed at 220 pounds and the 6-4 Dion Waiters listed at 215 pounds this past season.
WHAT ARE MOCK DRAFTS SAYING?
While some believe Bol has the talent of a lottery pick, most mock drafts have him being selected outside of the lottery because of those red flags. In fact, the only mock draft surveyed by the Miami Herald that has Bol as a lottery pick is ESPN.
ESPN’s latest mock draft has Bol going to the Heat at No. 13.
“Bol brings much-needed three-point shooting and rim protection. He’s a top-five talent in this draft, finding himself this low due to a season-ending foot injury, which is certainly a concern,” ESPN wrote. “Miami has a clogged salary sheet and very little star power to show for it, making this an important draft. A rebuild might be around the corner, considering this aging roster and the limited options for improvement in the short-term. With that in mind, positional fit might not be as important as sheer talent and upside, which could cause the team to look at a younger prospect like Bol, who wasn’t able to show the full extent of their abilities during the season.
“Bol might not be an ideal fit with this team’s culture, considering the questions about his approach to the game, but there is little doubt that his talent looked worthy of a much higher selection than the late lottery before he broke his foot in December.”
The Athletic’s mock draft has the Thunder selecting Bol at No. 21, and Sports Illustrated’s mock draft projects Bol to go to the Nets at No. 17.
BOTTOM LINE
Based on the latest mock drafts, Bol is expected to still be on the board when it’s the Heat’s turn to pick at No. 13.
Bol possibly possesses the most upside of any prospect who’s projected to be selected in the Heat’s range. He can shoot threes, make plays off the dribble and has the length and anticipation to be an above-average defender around the rim.
The problem is Bol’s durability is already a concern. Does his upside outweigh the risk? That’s the big question.
And for the Heat, the other question is whether it should spend a second consecutive first-round pick on a big man. With Bam Adebayo, Kelly Olynyk and Hassan Whiteside already vying for minutes at center, drafting a wing would seem to make more sense for the Heat.
But with the uncertainty surrounding the future of Miami’s roster, one could argue drafting the player with the most upside makes more sense than drafting for positional need. If the Heat takes Bol, it will be because it believes his All-Star potential offers tremendous value at the 13th pick.
“I don’t think he’s going to miss his entire rookie season; but with a foot injury, I’m sure you want to take things slow,” ESPN NBA Draft analyst Mike Schmitz said of Bol. “I’m sure it’s a long-term play with him. He’s one of those risk-reward guys. He can really shoot the ball, so skilled on the perimeter. He can get a defensive rebound and create some offense. My question is his durability with his thin frame and can he make it through an 82-game season.”
This story was originally published May 29, 2019 at 11:11 AM.
