Here’s why playoff odds seem stacked against Heat. Could it come down to finale vs. Nets?
The Heat might make the playoffs. The Heat might miss the playoffs. With just four regular-season games remaining, it’s still a toss-up.
For now, the Heat finds itself out of the playoffs.
Wednesday’s home loss to Boston dropped Miami from the Eastern Conference’s eighth and final playoff spot to ninth. But No. 9 Miami is just one-half game behind No. 8 Orlando and No. 7 Brooklyn, and one game behind No. 6 Detroit.
“This is playoff mode for us. This is what it feels like in the playoffs,” coach Erik Spoelstra said, with the Heat set to start a quick two-game trip Friday against the Timberwolves.
“You win, you think everything is great. You lose, you think that everything is coming down. Again, we just need to shut our doors and not listen to everything that’s out there. It’s going to go down to the last game as expected.”
It could very well come down to Miami’s final regular-season game, which comes Wednesday against the Nets on the road.
With just one-half game currently separating Miami (38-40) and Brooklyn (39-40), next week’s matchup could have winner-take-all stakes with the winning team advancing to the playoffs and the losing team missing the playoffs.
“It’s going to be down to the end,” Justise Winslow said, alluding to Miami’s regular-season finale against Brooklyn. “All these teams, it’s going to come down to the final game, so we have to understand that. Obviously, we always say one-game-at-a-time mentality. But it’s a tight race. We’re watching other teams and they’re watching us. But we can only control what we can control.”
After Wednesday’s loss, FiveThirtyEight.com’s playoff predictions dropped the Heat’s chances of making the postseason to 29 percent. Entering Wednesday, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index had the Heat with a 39.3 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Both project Miami to finish with a 39-43 record.
By comparison, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the sixth-seeded Pistons a 94.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, the seventh-seeded Nets a 69.8 percent chance and the eighth-seeded Magic an 89.5 percent chance. According to FiveThirtEight.com, the Pistons have a 99 percent chance, the Nets have a 74 percent chance and the Magic has a 94 percent chance of advancing to the postseason.
Why are the odds stacked against the Heat?
▪ Well, Miami is currently behind the Pistons, Nets and Magic in the standings.
▪ The Heat has a tough remaining schedule, with three of its four remaining games coming on the road.
Miami hits the road to take on the Timberwolves on Friday and Raptors on Sunday, and then returns home to face the 76ers on Tuesday and travels to play the Nets on Wednesday.
The Nets also have a difficult remaining schedule, with road games against Bucks and Pacers up next before hosting the Heat to close the regular season.
The Pistons’ remaining schedule: at Oklahoma City, vs. Charlotte, vs. Memphis and at New York.
The Magic’s remaining schedule: vs. Atlanta, at Boston, at Charlotte.
But remaining schedules can be misleading because some teams are resting star players at this late stage of the season.
▪ The Heat doesn’t own the tiebreaker over the Magic or Pistons. But Miami can still earn the tiebreaker over Brooklyn by winning the final game of the regular season to clinch the season series over the Nets, 3-1.
▪ More about that potentially huge game in Brooklyn on Wednesday: The Heat will be playing on the second night of a back-to-back after hosting the 76ers on Tuesday during an emotional night that could represent Dwyane Wade’s final home game.
The Nets have two days off before hosting the Heat.
“We understand what it is,” Wade said. “But the only thing you can control is the games you play. We have four left and we know we have a tough schedule. We have to figure out a way to win some games down the stretch. So we’re going to go out there and give our best every night, and hopefully we can win a few to put ourselves in.”
This story was originally published April 4, 2019 at 11:32 AM.
