Mailbag: With a month left in regular season, has Heat found a rotation that will stick?
The weekly Miami Herald Heat mailbag is here to answer your questions.
If you weren’t able to ask one this time, send your questions for future mailbags via Twitter (@Anthony_Chiang). You can also email me at achiang@miamiherald.com.
Josh, Miami: Has the Heat finally found a rotation, and why is James Johnson out of it?
Anthony Chiang: I want to wait a few more games before I answer this question with a yes. There have been other times when it looked like the Heat had found a rotation, only for a few losses to force Erik Spoelstra to shake things up again. But this rotation makes sense.
Starters: Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk and Bam Adebayo.
Bench: Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic, Derrick Jones Jr. and Hassan Whiteside. And, occasionally, Rodney McGruder.
It allows the Heat’s young core of Winslow, Richardson and Adebayo to start games together, with Olynyk’s stretch-big game complementing Adebayo’s physical interior presence in the front court. This starting five of Winslow, Waiters, Richardson, Olynyk and Adebayo is a plus-nine in 71 minutes together this season and a plus-14 in 66 minutes together during the past five games since it was instituted as the Heat’s starting lineup.
As for the bench unit, playing Wade, Dragic and Whiteside as reserves seems questionable on the surface. Wade is one of the greatest shooting guards in NBA history, Dragic was the Heat’s only All-Star last season and Whiteside is the highest-paid player on the roster. But Spoelstra has really tried to pair Dragic and Wade together in the time Dragic has been available since returning from knee surgery, as the two have played 63 minutes together since the All-Star break. And Whiteside has played well off the bench during his career, as he averaged 16.5 points, 12.8 rebounds and 3.5 blocks in 30 games as a reserve in 2015-16. Jones is the perfect bench guy to come in the game and offer athleticism and energy.
As for James Johnson, he’s just the one left out of the rotation right now. With a surplus of rotation-level players on the Heat’s roster, there’s going to be at least one who doesn’t make the cut. Johnson is the one right now. It doesn’t help that Johnson owns a team-worst plus-minus of minus-90 this season.
Will this rotation stick through the end of the season? Who knows. But it’s working right now, and that’s all the Heat cares about as it fights to make the playoffs.
@vickegilaf: Predict where the Heat finishes. No. 7 seed?
Anthony: I still think if the Heat makes the playoffs, the eighth seed is the most realistic landing spot. With 18 regular-season games remaining, Miami entered Friday 2.5 games behind No. 7 Brooklyn and No. 6 Detroit. It’s going to take a very strong finish from the Heat to pass those teams up, especially with nine of its final 13 regular-season games coming on the road. But the Nets’ schedule isn’t easy either, with a brutal seven-game trip coming later this month.
I’ll make this prediction: If the Heat posts a 11-7 record the rest of the way to finish 41-41, it will enter the playoffs as the East’s No. 6 seed.
This story was originally published March 8, 2019 at 10:30 AM.
