Why do Marlins sometimes lift their pitchers early? Some insight into philosophy
The statistic, circulated on social media over the weekend, smacked of irony:
The Marlins — a team notorious this season for often lifting starting pitchers earlier than one might expect — happen to be the only National League team that has had four starting pitchers go at least seven innings in a game this season.
So what’s behind manager Clayton McCullough removing pitchers after four or five or six innings when they seemingly have something left in the tank?
Data and analytics. While they’re sitting in the dugout during games, McCullough and his coaching staff have access to how a Marlins starter has pitched this season — and in past years — when permitted to face any team, and that specific opponent’s hitters in particular, for a third time through the batting order.
They also have data that shows how available relievers have pitched against that opponent’s hitters.
While instincts and gut feel are a part of McCullough’s decisions, this is a data-driven organization. And the Marlins are hardly the first team to put stock in the third-time-through-the-order dynamic. The Dodgers and Rays are among others that do.
The Marlins caution that there are no hard and fast rules with lifting pitchers.
But asked Tuesday how much of his decisions about when to lift starting pitchers is based on data and how much is based on feel, McCullough was very clear:
“Data certainly plays a factor,” he said. “It’s hard to argue against [the notion] that every pitcher — it doesn’t matter who they are — the third time through [an order], their numbers do worsen. To what degree depends on how good the individual is. I do take that into account. I take into account what’s the shape of our pen a given day, what kind of stretch we are in.
“Certainly I factor in how someone is throwing on a particular day, pitch count. What’s the score? Are we up? Are we down? [But] to sit here and say I don’t take into account what the numbers say wouldn’t be true.”
Janson Junk, who has a 2.83 ERA in seven starts, has pitched into the sixth inning only twice — and into the seventh inning once. He was lifted after five scoreless innings against St. Louis despite throwing only 56 pitches, then was removed after six scoreless innings against the Dodgers after throwing 76 pitches.
Max Meyer hadn’t pitched more than 5 ⅓ innings in any of his first six starts before going seven when he was one-hitting the Phillies on Saturday.
Chris Paddack threw into the fifth inning only once in six starts before he was designated for assignment this week — though his struggles drove his early exits more than analytics did.
Paddack (before he was jettisoned) and Junk said they take no issue with the team’s approach on this. After his gem against the Phillies, Meyer said the fact he was allowed to go a full seven innings for the first time in 32 career starts made no difference to him.
“They have numbers in there that no one sees,” Paddack said. “I’m sure if we asked for them, what our strengths and weaknesses are our third time through the lineup, they would give it to us.”
Junk said the Marlins have never gathered the pitchers and explained how the third-time-through-the-order dynamic affects their thinking. Nor have they told him individually.
But Junk said: “Everybody knows with the third time in the order, they look at things like batting average, hard contact. I don’t think there’s a strict cut-off.... I don’t worry about it. Whenever the manager tells me I’m done, that’s when I’m done.”
Does he fight to stay in the game? “I’ll say what I can, but I respect [McCullough’s] thought process,” Junk said.
“As a pitcher, it’s so emotional when you’re out there. Having analytics divide that line of emotion, that is a good thing. For a moment, you might be angry. As competitors, you want to go as long as possible. But if that’s going to be detrimental to the team at some point, I don’t see a reason to push beyond that point.”
In Meyer’s case, his history of injuries has been a factor in the length of his starts.
“We’re trying to keep him as healthy as possible,” McCullough said. “I told myself and told him [before the season], ‘I will probably err on rounding down on your pitch count at times than push, push, push.’ We know there’s a talented pitcher there. His ability to go out and pitch every fifth or sixth day is the only way we are going to find out how good he can be.”
McCullough has shown some flexibility when a pitcher is rolling. And this might surprise some, but per statmuse.com, the Marlins entered the week eighth in innings pitched by starters this season -- only 20 innings behind the Seattle Mariners, who are first on that list.
But McCullough made clear that he’s not changing his approach.
“I will continue being very aggressive with the bullpen, especially when you have the caliber of pitchers we have down there,” he said this week. “You can look at it as a knock on the starter or that you have guys equally equipped if you put them into what you think is the best spot for them.
“Everyone will have their own idea of what it will look like. I can’t worry too much about [the fan reaction]. I will make the decision that night that I think best gives us the chance to win. I know that at times it’s not going to work out.”
Roster move
A night after Will Kempner pitched a perfect inning in his big-league debut, the Marlins sent him back to Triple A Jacksonville and promoted left-hander Dax Fulton (1-2, 7.65 ERA at Jacksonville) merely to get another fresh bullpen arm during a stretch of 26 games in 27 days.
The rotation remains aligned for high-end left-handed prospect Robby Snelling (3-1, 1.86 ERA at Jacksonville) to start Friday’s home game against Washington.
This story was originally published May 6, 2026 at 11:39 AM.
