Marlins defy expectations, will have a say in playoffs during final homestand
The Marlins took the field in Philadelphia on Thursday night clinging to the slimmest of postseason hopes.
To stay alive, they had to win — every remaining scenario for a playoff berth required them to run the table.
They also needed help. A Mets or a Diamondbacks win Thursday would eliminate them on a division-record tiebreaker.
The fact that Miami still had a chance with four games left is remarkable in itself — a testament to the surge they have made the past two-plus weeks. They have done it with 13 rookies on the roster and without their best player and only All-Star, outfielder Kyle Stowers, sidelined since Aug. 17 with an oblique strain.
The Marlins knew that if they dodged elimination Thursday, it would set up the ultimate showdown with the Mets, who held the third and final National League playoff spot entering play.
Sweep the season-ending three-game series at loanDepot park — with a little outside help — and Miami could pull off the miracle.
The Marlins have held their own against New York this year. They took three of four from the Mets in September after dropping two of three early in the season both in New York and in Miami.
If Thursday brought elimination?
They could still play spoiler, keeping their NL East rival out of the postseason while helping the Reds, Diamondbacks, Giants, or Cardinals instead.
No matter what happens this weekend, it has been a stirring finish to a surprising season. The Marlins clawed back from 16 games under .500 to even their record, only to endure more skids — 11 losses in 14 games in August, then seven in eight to start September.
Once again, they rallied.
Before Wednesday’s 11-1 loss in Philadelphia, Miami had won seven in a row — for the second time this season — and 11 of its past 12 overall.
“It’s great, and we wanted to — regardless of where things were and what potentially could happen — we just wanted to play out this entire thing and to be playing well,” Marlins manager Clayton McCullough told reporters after the franchise’s first ever sweep of the Rangers. “I think we all feel great right now that we’re kind of hitting a stride in the back half of the season, after a bit if a lull in August, to get back and play really, really sound baseball.
“As cliché as it is, ‘one at a time, and as long as we have a pulse, it adds a little bit to what we have left here,” McCullough continued. “It feels good to win. I think it’s more like the way we’ve been playing and how guys have really come together and all the contributions. Moving forward, that’s what it’s going to take. It’s going to be a full roster each day that’s going to need to contribute to help us win.”
Expectations were low for Miami in McCullough’s first year after a 62-100 record in 2024.
FanGraphs projected 69.6 wins and a last-place NL East finish, with just a 1.3% chance of reaching the postseason. Other models pegged them for 63 or 64 victories.
Instead, they’re among only three MLB clubs to improve by 10-plus wins from last season.
With Tuesday’s comeback — rallying from 3-0 down to beat the Phillies 6-5 in 11 innings — the Marlins secured their 77th win, matching the third-largest year-to-year improvement in franchise history (15 games).
Tuesday’s win also assured they will finish with a better-than-.500 record on the road for just the third time in franchise history, joining the 2020 and 2009 teams.
“I love the sense of urgency that the guys are coming here and playing with, and that they’re just playing pitch to pitch and kind of playing this thing out, every out of the games,” McCullough told MLB.com after Tuesday’s triumph.
“I think that’s something that we’ve seen in this group all season long. And I think now knowing that we know we don’t have much of a leash, it’s every day is do or die, and that might not be enough, but we’re going to keep giving it a shot as long as we have one.”