Examining one problem this entire century for Marlins, and how this draft could help fix it

After the Marlins used their first four picks of this summer’s amateur draft on college hitters — a streak that would reach six before they finally selected a pitcher — the former general manager on MLB Network’s set offered a theory.

“I think it’s a concerted effort to realize it’s the thing that’s lacking within their development system right now,” ex-Rockies GM Dan O’Dowd said of the franchise’s decade-long difficulties identifying and developing skilled hitters in the draft.

Marlins amateur scouting director Frankie Piliere insisted the fact the organization used all 21 of its draft picks on college players, including 10 position players, was “the coincidences of a draft board.”

But this much is clear: The Marlins must make better decisions on hitters in the draft, particularly college bats. Whereas the Marlins have had great success with several high school bats earlier this century (Giancarlo Stanton in 2007 and Christian Yelich in 2010 at the top of the list), Miami hasn’t drafted a single college hitter this century who has gone on to be an All-Star, at least for them. Most have had disappointing careers.

Even two top-10 picks viewed as safe prospects at the time — Colin Moran and JJ Bleday — were enormous disappointments. Charles Johnson, the Marlins’ first ever draft pick, was probably the best college hitter that they have ever selected, with Mark Kotsay also a success story.

“They’ve really had a tough time developing hitters,” MLB.com lead draft analyst Jim Callis said. “They need to improve their development of hitters.”

This has been a problem for years and through multiple regimes and not the fault of the new administration.

Part of the problem has been trading high picks for big-league help, though several of those high picks haven’t yet worked out elsewhere. First baseman Josh Naylor (95 career homers) stands as one glaring exception after he was regrettably dealt to San Diego in the Andrew Cashner trade in 2016.

Since moving into the new ballpark, Marlins first-round picks have been used on position players Moran, Naylor, Connor Scott, Bleday, Kahlil Watson, Jacob Berry and PJ Morlando. Of those, Naylor, Scott, Watson and Morlando did not play college baseball.

Bleday (.216 in 396 career games) hasn’t hit in Oakland since being traded there for A.J. Puk. Watson has been getting on base (.344) and hitting for power (16 homers, 60 RBI) for Cleveland’s Double A and Triple A teams. Trading him for Josh Bell proved regrettable.

Moran, dealt to Houston in 2013 before his big-league debut, had a disappointing six-year career.

It’s too soon to know what will become of Berry (.260, .345 on base, eight homers, 54 RBI in 120 games at Triple A Jacksonville this season) and Morlando (.226, .361 on base, five homers, 30 RBI in 52 games at Single A Jupiter). Scott, Derek Jeter’s first Marlins draft pick, is languishing in his seventh year in the minors, now in the Royals’ system.

The Marlins’ draft pick closest to helping at the big-league level seems to be catcher Joe Mack, who’s hitting .251 (.323 on base) with 18 homers and 51 RBI in 97 games at Jacksonville. Mack — selected 31st overall in 2021 out of an Amherst, New York, high school — has 45 homers since the start of last season.

Outfielder Kemp Alderman, selected by Miami in the second round in 2023 out of the University of Mississippi, appears to be the former college player closest to the big leagues. He hit .282 (.334 on base) with 21 homers and 66 RBI in 121 games at Double A and Triple A this season, mostly at Double A Pensacola.

In the first three rounds of this year’s draft, the Marlins drafted four established college hitters: Oregon State shortstop Aiva Arquette, Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella, Arizona State outfielder Brandon Compton and Florida State outfielder Max Williams.

Arquette, who hit .354 with 19 homers and 66 RBI last season, was considered by many to be the top college hitter in the draft. He hit .242 (.350 on base) and 10 RBI in 27 games at High A Beloit.

“They got a shortstop that can hit,” MLB Network’s Harold Reynolds said. “I think he’s a big-time player that’s going to move through this system.”

Tennessee coach Tony Vitello, on MLB Network’s draft coverage, said Arquette has “one of the cleanest swings in the whole draft and an incredible kid.”

O’Dowd raised concerns on some of the others:

▪ On Cannarella (.353, .479 on base, 22 doubles, five homers, 52 RBI in 61 games last season at Clemson): “The strength is going to have to [improve] for him to impact our game [as a hitter]. It’s more a bat-to-ball contact guy.

“[But] we are talking about legitimately an A defender in center field. Tremendous instincts to go get the ball. He did have a serious labrum injury which limited his throwing and base-stealing this year. He is an elite defensive center fielder.”

He hit .284 (..37 on base) and six RBI in 22 games at Beloit.

▪ On Compton (.271, .379, 9 homers, 54 RBI in 59 games at Arizona State last season): “It’s power over hit. It’s legitimate power, though. If he figures out some things from a movement pattern offensively, he can be a way better hitter than what he did [in college]. He put on a show at the Combine. It’s a joke. He’s a strong, powerful young man. He’s going to have to show some hit-ability.”

Compton hit .217 (.354 on base) with two homers 17 RBI in 27 games at Beloit. He hit 23 homers in two seasons with the Sun Devils.

▪ On Max Williams (.316, .383, 19 homers, 53 RBI in 57 games at FSU last season): “He’s more strength over hitability,” O’Dowd said. “Has a unique set-up; he gets deep into his legs. He profiles OK in the outfield. He’s going to have to become a little better hitter to get to the power consistently.”

The Marlins started Williams at Low A Jupiter and he hit .269 (.359 on base) with seven RBI in 19 games.

As for the position players picked by the Marlins on Day 2 and the very early returns:

▪ Fourth-round FSU shortstop Drew Faurot (.307, .388, 16 homers, 51 RBI in 58 games for the Seminoles last season): Piliere said Faurot is “interesting in that he performed very well in the ACC, hits the baseball hard. Drew’s a very good player today. There’s a lot of reasons to think he could get better in our system.”

He was very good in 22 games at Jupiter, hitting .341 with a .392 on base average and 15 RBI.

▪ Fifth-round Virginia first baseman Chris Arroyo (.291, .361, 11 homers, 42 RBI in 49 games): The former Parkland Stoneman Douglas High star “already has been a very good hitter at the college level at a young age,” Piliere said. “Our hope is that he plays first base and a little outfield.”

He played 20 games at Jupiter, hitting just .221 (.316 on base) with seven RBI.

▪ Eighth-round Grand Canyon shortstop Emilio Barreras (.358, .462, three homers, 31 RBI in 41 games in 2025):

Piliere said the Marlins like his “extreme contact rate that we think could maybe potentially get into more power.”

He hit just .172 with six RBI in 19 games at Jupiter.

▪ Tenth-round Missouri State second baseman Jake McCutcheon (.358, .444, 15 homers, 54 RBI in 55 games this past season): Piliere said “we kind of think that he might be able to play all over the field. He might be able to play infield, outfield and do a bunch of different things for us.”

He went 0 for 10 at Jupiter this season and spent a lot of time at the FCL Marlins complex.

▪ Twelfth-round Oregon State catcher Wilson Weber, who hit .326 (.407 on base) with 12 home runs and 58 RBIs in 63 games. He hit just .172 with six RBI in 17 games at Beloit.

▪ Fifteenth-round North Carolina State shortstop Josh Hogue, who hit .327 (.391 on base) with 11 homers and 43 RBI in 55 games. He was 3 for 10 in three games at Jupiter and spent a lot of time at the FCL Marlins complex.

There won’t be clarity on any of these players for years. But for low-payroll teams like the Marlins, the draft simply must produce more impact bats.

This is the second of several pieces, over several weeks, on the Marlins’ future. Here’s the first part and the second part.

This story was originally published September 19, 2025 at 4:26 PM.