Here are Marlins’ chances of landing top pick in next week’s draft lottery. And notes
The 2024 Marlins were a bad team in every regard, one of the worst in franchise history.
But they weren’t the worst team in baseball, not remotely.
Two years ago, that reality would have cost them a chance to land the top pick in the July amateur draft. But no longer.
Last year, Major League Baseball began using a lottery system to determine the first six picks in the MLB Draft.
And here’s the catch: The team with the worst record in baseball, the 41-121 Chicago White Sox, cannot draft higher than 10th overall because a team that does not receive revenue sharing cannot pick in the lottery in consecutive years. (Chicago had the fifth pick in this past summer’s draft.)
So the Marlins (who had MLB’s third-worst record at 62-100) and Colorado Rockies (who had the second-worst record at 61-101) have the best chance to land the top pick in the draft lottery, which will be held at MLB’s Winter Meetings at 5:30 p.m. Tuesday in Dallas, with MLB Network televising it.
The Marlins and Rockies will enter with a 22.45 percent chance for the top pick, followed by the Angels at 17.96 and the Nationals at 10.2 percent. All this means the Marlins can pick no worse than eighth. And the likelihood is the Marlins will pick much higher than that.
Heading into this past summer, there was a clear-cut top pick in the 2025 draft: Oklahoma prep shortstop Ethan Holliday, brother of Orioles player Jackson Holliday and son of former big-league and seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday.
But that’s no longer a sure thing. Some evaluators have Texas A&M outfielder Jace LaViolette going No. 1.
How each player performs next spring and early summer will factor into who ends up being drafted first next July, and whether others enter the equation.
Baseball America says Holliday has “a strong eye, tracks pitches well and seems to use the entire field naturally and with authority.” The publication says he has the potential to hit 30 home runs per year.
MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, who projected Holliday No. 1 in his early 2025 mock draft, said: “Some feel Ethan has the chance to be better than his older brother, Jackson, and is definitely more physical. The Oklahoma State recruit might have been [the No. 1 pick] this year had he been eligible. The ball carries off his bat to all fields well with an easy swing.”
But LaViolette, who can play center field, is the better prospect in the eyes of some evaluators. He hit .305 (.449 on base) with 29 homers and 78 RBI in 69 games at Texas A&M last season.
“LaViolette fits the classic right-field profile with his prodigious power and strong arm,” MLB.com evaluator Jim Callis said. “Holliday has much more physicality and a higher ceiling than his older brother Jackson had at the same stage — and Jackson went No. 1 overall in 2022.
“Yet both come with concerns. LaViolette struck out at a 24% clip last spring, while Holliday struggled more than expected on the summer showcase circuit.”
Others in the mix, at this point, for a top-three selection include Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella, who had a .978 OPS last season, as well as FSU left-handed pitcher Jamie Arnold, Washington-based high school third baseman Xavier Neyens, UC-Santa Barbara right hander Tyler Bremner and California-based prep shortstop Brady Ebel.
Once the top six picks are determined by lottery, the remaining non-playoff teams will pick in inverse order of record; the worst remaining non-playoff team gets the No. 7 pick and the best remaining non-playoff team gets the No. 18 pick.
Teams that received revenue-sharing cannot have a top pick three years in a row. But the Marlins made the playoffs and picked 16th this past July, so they’re in the clear on that front.
The Marlins have had the No. 1 overall pick just once, in 2000, when they selected prep first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
EXECUTIVE HIRED
The Marlins hired Ryan Plunkett away from the Philadelphia Phillies to serve as their vice president of baseball solutions.
Plunkett will oversee “implementation of all of data we’re getting, [which] is so important,” Marlins president/baseball operations Peter Bendix said “He’s such a great fit to move us forward in the [research and development] place.”
Plunkett had worked for the Phillies as their assistant director of foundational research, baseball research and development.
This story was originally published December 6, 2024 at 3:30 PM.
