The Marlins’ thinking five weeks from the trade deadline. And Ng, Chisholm weigh in
At 33-40 and eight games out of the National League’s third and final wild card as of Wednesday morning, the Marlins are in no position to view themselves as playoff contenders.
In a thoroughly disappointing season, the Marlins are more likely to trade veterans than acquire them at the trade deadline, barring a dramatic reversal in performance.
If they can somehow get back to .500 or better by the Aug. 2 MLB trade deadline, the franchise will pursue the final NL wild-card spot and likely would be buyers. Forget winning the division; the Marlins trail the NL East-leading Mets by 13 games.
How close to the final wild-card spot would Miami need to be in late July to acquire veteran talent?
“I wouldn’t put a number on it,” general manager Kim Ng told the Miami Herald last week. “But you want to be within striking distance. I hope we get there. The club is playing a lot better this month than they were last month. We’re getting healthier.”
Does Ng have a sense from owner Bruce Sherman whether he would be willing to add payroll if the team is on the fringes of wild card contention?
“Yeah, Bruce has been really supportive of what we’re doing,” Ng said. “If we feel that we’re within that striking distance, I think he’ll continue to be supportive.”
The Marlins’ $69.9 million payroll ranks 26th of 30 teams, per spotrac.com. They’re 29th in average attendance at 11,487 — ahead of only Oakland.
The Marlins hope to take advantage of a July schedule that features 11 games against the Pirates and Reds. Miami has sputtered against most of the higher quality teams but feasted on the cellar dwellers, including an 8-1 record against Washington and a recent sweep of Colorado. But the Marlins must win games against teams they are chasing in the standings.
If they don’t and continue down this losing path, they’re likely to be sellers. Here’s who could be on the move at the deadline:
▪ First baseman/designated hitter Jesus Aguilar: He will be a free agent at year’s end, and even if Miami keeps him for the remainder of the season, it’s highly unlikely he would be extended a qualifying offer this winter.
Aguilar has posted an on-base percentage of just .301 — down from .329 in 2021 and .352 in 2020, his first year with the Marlins.
He hasn’t yet been able to recapture the magic of his fantastic 2021 season, when he hit 22 homers and drove in 93 runs before missing nearly a month to end the season.
Aguilar will still be owed just more than $3 million dollars if he’s dealt just before the deadline. For another team to assume his salary, with his current production, there’s not a lot to expect back in return unless he gets hot in the next five weeks.
▪ Reliever Anthony Bass: After struggling as a closer during the first week of the 2021 season, Bass has thrived in a setup role this season (1.74 ERA in 31 games). Bass — who’s earning $3 million this season — has a $3 million team option for 2023; the Marlins must pay a $1 million buyout if they decline the option.
▪ Reliever Steven Okert: The Marlins smartly signed Okert to a minor-league contract in February 2021, and he has gone 8-1 with a 2.60 ERA in 64 Marlins appearances through two seasons, including a 2.28 ERA this season as a high leverage, late-inning arm. He’s averaging 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings.
In the trade market, Okert likely could command a top-20 prospect from another team. Keep in mind that Miami flipped reliever Nick Anderson and Trevor Richards to Tampa Bay for Jesus Sanchez in 2018.
Don’t discount what a team will pay for a left-handed cost-controlled arm down the stretch. The Marlins’ minor-league system is deep with young left-handed relief pitching.
If the Marlins go on a surprising winning streak and become buyers at the trade deadline, the positions we hear they would like to solidify are a back-end bullpen arm and potentially a high-end center fielder.
For now, it appears the Marlins want to play Sanchez primarily against right-handed pitching and less against left-handers; there’s no other particularly appealing option internally. Sanchez profiles more as a corner outfielder.
Miami ideally would move Sanchez to left field and Jorge Soler to designated hitter in 2023, while adding a starting center fielder, an option they bypassed this past winter.
Bryan De La Cruz, a competent fourth outfielder, doesn’t profile as a starting center fielder.
As for the bullpen, Tanner Scott has converted seven of eight save chances, and Ng said: “We definitely like the direction he has been going. The more he’s back there, the more experience he has, the better he will be. We’re liking that direction.”
But so much has gone wrong: Avisail Garcia has had a disappointing first half; valuable and versatile Joey Wendle has missed nearly two months due to hamstring injuries; Sanchez — for all his gifts — struggles to get on base consistently; Aguilar has declined. Trevor Rogers has dramatically regressed, Elieser Hernandez bombed and Sixto Sanchez (hasn’t pitched in a game since 2020) and Edward Cabrera can’t stay healthy. The Marlins appear more likely to be sellers than buyers, barring a July turnaround.
THIS AND THAT
▪ Left-hander Jesus Luzardo’s injury is worse than the team initially believed. The Marlins first thought Luzardo would only miss a turn or two in the rotation with a forearm strain. Instead, he’s going to miss at least two months.
Luzardo, who hasn’t pitched since May 10, was recently placed on the 60-day IL and realistically may not be back until August. Acquired from Oakland for Starling Marte at last year’s trade trade deadline, Luzardo (4.03 ERA in six starts) has been throwing from 105 feet.
▪ Speaking of Marte, the Marlins probably should have kept him — either by extending him before trading him last July, or re-signing him in the offseason.
Marte — who signed a four-year, $78 million deal with the Mets — has been much better than Garcia, who signed a four-year, $56 million deal with Miami.
Marte is hitting .284 with seven homers and 36 RBI.
Garcia is hitting .227 with five homers and 21 RBI.
Marte told us last week that the Marlins “offered a deal [last offseason] and we spent awhile negotiating, but it never came to fruition. What they offered and we wanted weren’t lining up.”
▪ Flamboyant Marlins second baseman Jazz Chisholm told me he is being careful about not crossing a line with opponents.
“I try not to overdo things,” he said. “I’m never going to try and do a Eurostep straight at a pitcher or anything like that. I’m not going to try to show anybody up. I’m just trying to have fun in the game I love and do it my way.”
He said no opposing player has ever said anything negative to him.
▪ Ng, asked to name a few players that have emerged in the minor-league system this year, mentioned pitcher George Soriano (3.02 ERA at Double A Pensacola and Triple A Jacksonville) and Eury Perez (3.71 ERA in 11 starts at Pensacola). Perez’s “name always brings a smile to my face,” Ng said.
Any position players emerging in her eyes? “We saw [outfielder] Jerar Encarnacion the other day. Made a nice splash with the grand slam. He’s been the one guy we’re looking at that’s pretty interesting.”
Encarnacion — who appeared in two games for the Marlins this season — is hitting .250 with five homers and 10 RBI in 29 games at Jacksonville after opening the season on a tear (.351, 8 HR, 18 RBI in 31 games at Pensacola).
Herald senior baseball correspondent Craig Mish hosts Fantasy Sports Today from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. and Newswire from 2 to 3 p.m. weekdays on Sportsgrid. Follow him on Twitter at @CraigMish. Follow Barry Jackson at @flasportsbuzz
This story was originally published June 29, 2022 at 12:25 PM.
