Details on Marlins’ next first-rounder and details on recent ones, including one sent home
As the Marlins mull whom to select with the sixth overall pick in the July 17-19 Major League Baseball draft, they’re digesting some unexpected developments with their recent first-rounders, including a disciplinary issue involving last year’s 16th overall pick Kahlil Watson, a surprising regression by Trevor Rogers and a mixed bag of results from JJ Bleday.
As for this year’s first-rounder, the Marlins appear to be leaning toward taking a polished college bat that ideally could move quickly through their system. But do not rule out them opting for right-hander Dylan Lesko (a Georgia prep star who underwent Tommy John surgery in April) or Plantation American Heritage left-hander Brandon Barreira, who has electric stuff.
Marlins amateur scouting director DJ Svihlik has seen Barreira multiple times and left impressed. Svihlik and the Marlins have hit on multiple arms in the draft.
If the Marlins take a hitter, these players would be options at No. 6:
▪ Georgia Tech catcher Kevin Parada, who slashed .361/.453/.709 with 26 home runs and 88 RBI this past season.
The Marlins love Joe Mack — the prep catcher they selected 31st overall in 2021 - but snagging a proven catcher from a college that has a history of producing MLB backstops would be tempting. Parada is certainly in play.
▪ Bradenton IMG Academy outfielder Elijah Green, the son of former Dolphins tight end Eric Green.
The tools are enticing. MLB Pipeline said: “Green may have the highest ceiling in the draft, but there’s a sense that he might be sliding.”
▪ Cal Poly switch-hitting shortstop Brooks Lee.
The Marlins have loved his throwback style and his bat since high school. He has high contact rates, strong character and a high floor. He played well in the Cape Cod League and slashed .357/.462/.664 with 15 home runs, 55 RBI and 25 doubles this past season for Cal Poly. He was named Big West Field Player of the Year for the second straight season.
▪ Campbell University shortstop Zach Neto, who attended Miami Sunset High.
He’s a dark horse on the Marlins’ draft board, a Dustin Pedroia-style player with a big swing that dominated in college (.407, 15 homers, 50 RBI in 2022).
Here’s what we’re hearing on the Marlins’ recent first-round picks, with feedback from Svihlik:
▪ Watson, selected 16th overall in 2021, has been home in North Carolina the past two weeks even though he’s healthy.
After a strong start to his season at Low A Jupiter, Watson’s plate discipline regressed, and his on-field persona changed dramatically, per sources. Watson, who had been removed from games by his manager in Jupiter on multiple occasions, hasn’t appeared in a game after a July 1 incident in which he appeared to gesture his bat — as if it were a gun — toward the first base umpire.
Here’s what happened: Watson check swung on strike two and the umpire called it a strike. Then he went down swinging. Jupiter has only two umpires in Low A ball, and the first base umpire said Watson didn’t check his swing on what was called strike two, which enraged Watson, who was thrown out of the game moments after striking out.
Watson was sent home to North Carolina in the aftermath. The Marlins still have high hopes for Watson and are trying to create an environment where he can learn to manage his emotions when there’s adversity.
“Kahlil Watson is an elite talent,” Svihlik said Wednesday. “Kahlil Watson is immature on the field sometimes. And he does things that make you scratch your head sometimes, that young, immature kids do. He’s a good kid. Players like him. Coaches enjoy being around him. It’s player development’s job to take this elite talent and shape it so he can maximize all of his God-given ability.
“It’s like Carl Everett, Daryl Strawberry, Doc Gooden. This is a young man that’s exceedingly talented. We saw him play in the summer; he tore it apart. He’s not going to just slide into home headfirst and play hard. He’s going to do other things that are emotional. And we understand that. He’s a good kid. He’s in a good spot, playing the game hard. I think player development is optimistic that any kind of hiccups that he has are short-lived.”
We’re told Watson’s mother left her job in North Carolina to be with her son in Jupiter last month.
The Marlins have considered having him spend time at one of their higher affiliates in an attempt to show him how players closer to the big leagues go through their day to day activities.
Watson, who signed for $4.5 million, is hitting .221 with eight homers and 35 RBI in 59 games at Jupiter.
▪ Mack, picked 31st (with a compensatory pick) in the 2021 draft, has been sidelined with a hamstring strain and has appeared in four games for Class A Jupiter, going 4 for 13.
“Hopefully, we can get him 250 at-bats so he can salvage the season,” Svihlik said. “Really excited about him. Good defender. We’ve always liked the bat. We drafted Joe Mack for the bat.”
▪ Max Meyer, picked third overall in 2020, had allowed only two runs in 14 innings, with 14 strikeouts, since returning from an injury before permitting two runs and walking four (with seven strikeouts) in 4 ⅔ innings of a start on Saturday for Triple A Jacksonville.
“I see Max as a starting pitcher; we knew when we selected Max, there was that reliever-starter conversation,” Svihlik said. “I see Max as a playoff starter. Any starter of that caliber with that kind of two-pitch combination can go into the back of a bullpen [as well]. We love his delivery, athleticism.
“He’s done what we expected him to do, in some regards exceeded it. Still has some development ahead of him. His next step is to pitch in the big leagues, find out what it’s like with his third [time through the order] with good hitters on the other team and make some adjustments.”
He has a 2.77 ERA with 199 strikeouts in 172 innings in 35 career minor league starts.
[Update: The Marlins are calling up Meyer, who will start this weekend.]
▪ JJ Bleday, selected fourth overall in 2019, has 19 homers and 48 RBI in 80 games at Triple A Jacksonville (that’s good), and his .361 on-base percentage is adequate. But the .220 average — off last season’s .223 — remains a concern.
“When we took JJ, he had these streaks,” Svihlik said. “He has a really good approach. Sometimes he takes advantage of mistakes and sometimes he doesn’t. When we took JJ, one of the big conversations was is he a hitter with power? Is he a power hitter? What is it? The game is kind of defining that.
“JJ has turned, at least this year, into this high slug, high on-base percentage guy. If we can collect a few more hits, we would have more of a complete hitter. He’s taken his walks and is showing the power we knew he had. He just needs to take that next step.”
▪ Former 13th overall pick Trevor Rogers’ 2022 regression (from a 2.64 ERA last season to 5.42 this season) remains one of the disappointments of this Marlins season. He has spent considerable time with pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. — and studying tape on his own — to try to recapture past success.
“We did a lot of breaking down my mechanics compared to last year [and fixing that],” Rogers said. “I’m not happy with my stats, but my mechanics are in a good spot.”
One issue, he admits, is “batters know my fastball plays best at the top of the zone. They know my changeup is my best secondary pitch. I need to throw more in the zone early. I need to throw my slider more consistently.”
How’s he doing mentally? “There have been times when my confidence is shaken, when my butt was handed to me. But all of Mel’s guys have gone through growing pains.”
There has been some improvement recently, but no return yet to his dominant form of 2021, when he struck out 157 and allowed six homers in 153 innings. This season, he has struck out 74, with 10 homers permitted, in 78 innings.
▪ Braxton Garrett, selected seventh overall in 2016, missed 2018 after Tommy John surgery and has gradually improved since. He pitched brilliantly against Pittsburgh on Thursday (11 strikeouts, two hits, no runs in six innings) and has a 3.70 ERA in eight starts.
“I’ve been getting my fastball in really good spots this year,” he said. “That has led to more command in the zone. And my slider is much better than last year.”
If he continues on this track, he could become a steady No. 4 or No. 5 starter or be used as a carrot in a trade package when the Marlins feel Meyer and Eury Perez are ready for the big leagues, and when Sixto Sanchez and Edward Cabrera get healthy.
Herald senior baseball correspondent Craig Mish hosts Fantasy Sports Today from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. and Newswire from 2 to 3 p.m. weekdays on Sportsgrid. Follow him on Twitter at @CraigMish. Follow Barry Jackson at @flasportsbuzz.
This story was originally published July 14, 2022 at 5:17 PM.
