For first time, Miami Marlins don’t have to worry about this factor in judging prospects
It’s impossible to know for sure, of course, whether elite offensive production at Triple A will translate to success at the big-league level.
It’s even more difficult when thin air in some Western markets affects those Triple A numbers.
And that’s one reason the Marlins’ shifting of their Triple A affiliate from the shuttered Pacific Coast League to Jacksonville should, in theory, give them a more accurate gauge of the significance of big power numbers by their advanced hitting prospects.
For this entire century, when the Marlins’ Triple A team played in Calgary (1999-2002), Albuquerque (2003-2008) and New Orleans (2009-2019) — all PCL markets — not a single one of the Marlins’ top Triple A power hitters went on to have much, or any, success for the Marlins in the big leagues. Only one (Mark Canha) has had a successful big-league career, period.
Here were the 14 players who hit at least 20 homers for a Marlins’ Triple A team over the past 20 years: Dallas McPherson (42), Val Pascucci (34), Scott Seabol (32), Rob Slater (32), Joe Dillon (30 and 24), Luke Montz (29), Kyle Jensen (27), Tagg Bozied (27), Matt Padgett (24), Chris Aguila (22), Abraham Nunez (21), Larry Sutton (21), Jason Wood (21) and Canha (20).
Canha was plucked by Colorado in the Rule 5 draft and traded to Oakland, where he has 77 homers during the past seven seasons.
McPherson raised hopes following that 42-homer season in Albuquerque in 2008, then hit no home runs for the Marlins and 18 in a five-year major league career. The Marlins promptly left Albuquerque for New Orleans, in an unrelated story.
During the past five years, big power seasons from virtually everyone at New Orleans ultimately meant nothing, from Xavier Scruggs’ 21 homers in 2015 to Destin Hood smacking 29 over two years.
(For those who wondered, Marcell Ozuna played only 33 games in Triple A — at New Orleans — before joining the Marlins and had five homers in those 33 games. Giancarlo Stanton never played in Triple A before joining the Marlins.)
It’s too early to know how Isan Diaz’s 26 Triple A homers in 102 games for New Orleans in 2019 (and a .305 average) will translate; only two of those 26 home runs were hit in high altitude venues.
Now let’s be clear: It’s not uncommon for minor-league journeymen who spend a season at Triple A to hit for big power numbers over a full season, because the quality of pitching is much worse than at the big-league level, and journeymen are often left on the Triple A team all season.
But with the Marlins, what’s notable is that big power numbers in Triple A have never translated to big-league success for the Marlins this entire century, not a single time unless Diaz or Lewis Brinson (16 homers in 81 games for New Orleans) becomes a quality big-league player for the Marlins during the next few years.
The PCL ceased operations before the 2021 season as part of MLB’s reorganization of the minor leagues. So now the Marlins’ new Triple A team in Jacksonville will be playing Charlotte, Durham, Norfolk, Memphis, Nashville and a team in suburban Atlanta — markets where altitude shouldn’t be a big factor.
So now, with less thin air affecting fly balls, it will be interesting to see this play out with top prospects Jesus Sanchez (three homers, 12 RBI, .556 batting average in first six games in Jacksonville) and first baseman Lewin Diaz (three homers, 10 RBI, .308 in his first six games in Jacksonville this season).
Their power numbers so far in both of their minor-league careers haven’t been at all a byproduct of atmospheric conditions; Lewin Diaz hit 27 homers combined in Jacksonville, Pensacola and Fort Myers in 2019.
We’re told that while there is no rush to call up Sanchez, the Marlins won’t hesitate if he continues to perform at this level. Despite multiple injuries during the past year and a lackluster big-league debut last summer (one hit and 11 strikeouts in 25 at-bats), don’t be surprised if Miami promotes Sanchez to the majors this summer.
As for Diaz, we hear the Marlins could decide to keep him in the big leagues even when second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. returns from his hamstring injury. Chisholm is in Durham playing with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, on a rehab stint, and likely will miss most if not all of the four-game series against Arizona that runs through Thursday.
When Chisholm returns, Miami could opt to keep Diaz on the 26-man roster and go with 13 hitters and 13 pitchers. The other possible consideration would be to send a position player to the minors.
Outfielder Magneuris Sierra is out of options and would need to clear waivers if Miami opts to stick with Diaz instead of Sierra, who has hit just .143 in 28 a-bats this season. Brinson seems safe after a 3-for-4 day (with a home run) on Sunday.
MORE MINOR-LEAGUE TALK
Two scouts have insisted that Victor Mesa Jr. projects as the better Marlins outfield prospect than his more ballyhooed brother, Victor Victor Mesa, and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Victor Jr., at 19, is five years younger.
Victor Victor Mesa is off to a 3-for-17 start — with five strikeouts — at Double A Pensacola, after hitting .178 in 107 at-bats following his promotion to Double A in 2019. At 24, he’s still young enough to make himself a factor, but he must show progress this season.
Two positives: He’s 18 for 21 on steals and hasn’t committed an error in 107 games in the outfield in his minor-league career (mostly in center field).
Victor Jr., also a center fielder, is off to a .316 start with six RBI in four games at Class A Jupiter. He hit .284 in 47 games in rookie league in 2019.
▪ Besides Sanchez and Diaz, outfielder Connor Scott is the other offensive player turning heads early on, and Marlins people believe he has the potential to be a quality starting outfielder in the near future.
Despite uneven results in his first two seasons, Marlins executive Gary Denbo has been steadfast in his support for Scott, who was drafted 13th overall in the first round by Miami in 2018.
The 2018 draft was the first under the new regime, and nobody from that class has made it to the majors yet. But keep in mind that the entire 2020 minor-league season was wiped out, so perhaps Scott and others will emerge in 2021. Scott is hitting .360 in six games at High A Beloit (Wisconsin).
Baseball America on Tuesday released its updated top 100 prospects and has Sixto Sanchez sixth, J.J. Bleday 35th, Max Meyer 36th, Chisholm 54th (up from 68) and Edward Cabrera 70th.
THE DUVALL ISSUE
Outfielder Adam Duvall remains a mixed bag: He entered Monday fourth in the National League in strikeouts (41) and 71st of 77 National League qualifiers in on-base percentage (.258) but 18th in home runs (six) and 11th in RBI with 21.
The Marlins could have a tough decision with Duvall this winter because of the structure of his contract.
Duvall is earning $2 million this season and has a $7 million mutual option for next season. But if the Marlins decide not to exercise that option, they must pay him a $3 million buyout.
The Marlins have inserted a buyout clause in several of their contracts over the past two years.
The Marlins paid Brandon Kintzler $250,000 not to pitch for them this season instead of $4 million to pitch for them. Kintzler is 2-1 with a 6.35 ERA in 11 appearances for Philadelphia.
Right-hander Anthony Bass, who continues to struggle in his first year with the Marlins, is owed $3 million guaranteed in 2022, but the Marlins can escape paying him $3 million in 2023 if they pay him $1 million to leave after next season.
This story was originally published May 11, 2021 at 3:02 PM.
