Top 20 picks: Breaking down the playoff picture, who gets through to the second round?
It’s the most wonderful time…of the year.
No, I don’t mean the holidays, although I’m referring to that song you’re about to hear 15 times a day for the better part of the next two months.
No, I mean, it’s playoff time.
After all the talk of district standings and seeding, the road to the finals in Fort Lauderdale…and in Class 1M’s case, Tallahassee…has been revealed, and Thursday teams from South Florida will begin their quests to bring home a coveted state championship trophy.
Can Miami Central, Fort Lauderdale powers St. Thomas Aquinas and Cardinal Gibbons, and Hollywood Chaminade repeat? Or will we see a former champion re-emerge like Plantation American Heritage, Miami Columbus, Miami Booker T. Washington, Miami Northwestern, Miami Norland, Fort Lauderdale Dillard, Pompano Beach Blanche Ely or Miramar?
Or is it time for new blood at the top? Homestead?
The first step is this weekend.
Here’s a look at our final top 20 rankings until after the state meet and a look at round 1.
THE TOP 20
1. Central (9-0); 2. Chaminade-Madonna (9-0); 3. St. Thomas Aquinas (9-0); 4. Columbus (9-1); 5. American Heritage (9-1); 6. Cardinal Gibbons (9-1); 7. Homestead (8-2); 8. Booker T. Washington (8-2); 9. Dillard (6-3); 10. Blanche Ely (8-0); 11. Miramar (8-1); 12. Northwestern (5-4); 13. Norland (7-2); 14. Davie Western (6-3); 15. Miami Palmetto (5-5); 16. Coconut Creek (6-4); 17. Doral Academy (6-4); 18. Miami Southridge (6-4); 19. Miami Jackson (7-3); 20. Miami Carol City (5-5); Dropped out: 18. Pinecrest Gulliver Prep (5-4); On the cusp: Coconut Creek Monarch (8-2), Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian (8-2), Plantation (7-3), Miami Dr. Krop (6-4), Miami Belen Jesuit (5-5).
THIS WEEK’S TOP GAMES
Region 3-3M quarterfinal - 16. Coconut Creek (6-4) at 3. St. Thomas Aquinas (9-0), 7:30, Friday.
There has been a lot of Miami Central talk. There has been a lot of Chaminade talk.
But has Aquinas not been talked about enough just because they haven’t had as many flashy opponents on the schedule this year?
Well here’s where the Raiders begin to remind people why they have won a state-record 13 championships. Aquinas has one of the most prolific offenses in the country behind the running back tandem of Jordan Lyle and Gemari Sands with Hezekiah “Champ” Harris backing them up in the passing game. Add in a playmaking defense led by its talented secondary of King Mack, Conrad Hussey and Kimari Robinson and this will be a problem for anyone in their way in Class 3M. Orlando Edgewater is a major obstacle down the road, but even with Coconut Creek’s stout defense, the Raiders should get past the first test this week with relative ease.
Dre’s pick: St. Thomas Aquinas 28, Coconut Creek 6.
Region 4-2M quarterfinal - 20. Carol City (5-5) vs. 8. Booker T. Washington (8-2), 7, Thursday, Traz.
This matchup still isn’t evenly matched like the old days, but credit Carol City for starting the process of returning to one of Miami-Dade County’s best this year under coach Dorrean James. But as the first meeting between these two proved, Booker T. has a potent winning formula between its power running game (led by Antwan Smith and Gerald Modest) and playmaking defense (led by Xavier Irvin). Expect more of the same in the rematch.
Dre’s pick: Booker T. 28, Carol City 12.
Region 4-2M quarterfinal - 19. Miami Jackson (7-3) vs. 13. Norland (8-2), 3:30, Friday, Traz.
Jackson was on the outside looking in two weeks ago, before a big win against Miami Edison. The Generals moved up to the No. 6 seed in the region thanks to their hot finish and will look to pull an upset in Round 1.
But they are about to face one of the most potent offenses in the state led by Norland quarterback Ennio Yapoor and a talented running tandem of Javin Simpkins and Lemmie Faulk. The Vikings clear this hurdle and then likely get a rematch with Booker T. Washington next week.
Dre’s pick: Norland 34, Jackson 12.
Region 4-3M quarterfinal - Belen Jesuit (5-5) vs. Dr. Krop (6-4), 6, Friday, Monsignor Pace.
Both teams couldn’t have started the season worse.
Belen suffered a humiliating 49-6 loss at home to Calvary Christian while Krop was inconsistent and limped to a 2-4 start. Credit to both coaching staffs for getting their teams on track.
Belen was dealt a few tough losses down the stretch before last week’s 16-0 win over La Salle while Krop emerged as district champs after closing the season on a four-game winning streak. The Lightning remain a hard team to predict and something tells me to go with a more battle-tested Belen. So I’ll go against appearances and pick the Lightning.
Dre’s pick: Krop 17, Belen 16.
GMAC Independent championship - Miami Braddock (8-2) vs. Miami Coral Reef (8-2), 3:30, Friday, Tropical.
The first meeting between these teams was an instant classic with Braddock quarterback David Garcia making every conceivable play in all three phases of the game to help the Bulldogs secure a 35-34 nail-biter. Reef’s Colin Ferzli threw four touchdown passes on only seven completions. Expect this one to be competitive again for two programs that improved a lot this season.
Dre’s pick: Braddock 34, Coral Reef 28.
THE REST OF THE TOP 20
Region 4-2M quarterfinal - Miami St. Brendan (7-3) vs. 1. Miami Central (9-0), 7:30, Friday, Traz.
Dre’s pick: Central 55, St. Brendan 3. Congrats to the Sabres on a positive season, but this is another level of opponent.
2. Hollywood Chaminade (9-0): Bye.
Region 4-4M quarterfinal - Miami High (4-6) at 4. Columbus (9-1), 7, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Columbus 47, Miami High 6. We saw this movie during the season and it didn’t go well for the Stingarees.
Region 3-2M quarterfinal - Riviera Beach Inlet Grove (7-2) at 5. Plantation American Heritage (9-1), 7:30, Friday.
Dre’s pick: American Heritage 42, Inlet Grove 8. The march to a rematch with Gibbons begins for the Patriots.
Region 3-2M quarterfinal - Fort Lauderdale Pine Crest (8-2) at 6. Fort Lauderdale Cardinal Gibbons (9-1), 7:30, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Gibbons 34, Pine Crest 7. Defense continues to dominate, but will the Chiefs’ offense step up when it matters most.
Region 4-3M quarterfinal - 7. Homestead (8-2) vs. North Miami (5-5), 2, Saturday, Traz.
Dre’s pick: Homestead 38, North Miami 8. The Broncos could end up on the road two weeks in a row, but it won’t matter as they move through this region.
Region 3-3M quarterfinal - Fort Lauderdale (6-4) at 9. Dillard (6-3), 7:30, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Dillard 38, Fort Lauderdale 6. The Panthers should cruise before a Soul Bowl rematch with Blanche Ely.
Region 3-3M quarterfinal - Palm Beach Gardens Dwyer (7-3) at 10. Blanche Ely (8-0), 7:30, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Blanche Ely 27, Dwyer 13. For two and a half quarters against Dillard, the Tigers again showed how far they’ve come in less than a year.
Region 4-3M quarterfinal - Pembroke Pines Charter (6-3) at 11. Miramar (8-1), 7:30, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Miramar 35, Pines Charter 7. The Patriots might be playing some of the best defense in the area right now.
Region 4-2M quarterfinal - Gulliver Prep (5-4) vs. 12. Northwestern (5-4), 6, Saturday, Traz.
Dre’s pick: Northwestern 38, Gulliver 6. The Bulls won’t be caught looking ahead to a rematch with Central.
Region 4-4M quarterfinal - Weston Cypress Bay (6-4) at 14. Western (6-3), 7:30, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Western 34, Cypress Bay 13. The Wildcats found their offense just in time for the playoffs.
Region 4-4M quarterfinal - Somerset Academy (6-4) at 17. Doral Academy (6-4), 7, Friday.
Dre’s pick: Doral Academy 35, Somerset Academy 20. More yards on the ground for those prolific Firebirds backs.
Region 4-4M quarterfinal - West Broward (6-4) at 15. Palmetto (5-5), 7, Thursday, Tropical.
Dre’s pick: Palmetto 33, West Broward 7. The Panthers are hitting their stride and gear up for a rematch with Columbus.
Region 4-3M quarterfinal - South Broward (5-4) at 18. Southridge (6-4), 7, Thursday.
Dre’s pick: Southridge 30, South Broward 7. The Spartans pick up their first playoff win since 2018 and set up an intriguing matchup with Miramar.
OTHER GAMES
All games on Friday.
Region 3-4M quarterfinals: Boca Raton (6-4) vs. Monarch (8-2), 7:30, Coconut Creek; Monarch 31-14; Parkland Stoneman Douglas (7-3) at Lantana Santaluces (8-2), 7; Santaluces 30-21; Region 3-3M quarterfinal: Plantation (7-3) at Delray Beach Atlantic (7-3), 7:30; Atlantic 30-24; Region 3-2M quarterfinal: Boca Raton St. Andrews (7-3) at Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian (8-2), 7:30; Calvary 31-24.
Andre’s record (Through Saturday’s games) - Last week: 34-8; Top 20: 7-4; Season - Overall: 416-110; Top 20: 129-23.
This story was originally published November 8, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
