High School football predictions: Miami-Dade, Broward well represented in state semifinals

Now we’re on to the state semifinals, and this week’s games once again speaks volumes to the quality of football in Miami-Dade and Broward county. With the exception of 1A (which is rural upstate with no South Florida representation), every classification (2A-8A) will have a Miami-Dade or Broward team playing Friday night with a shot at the state finals.

The record of seven teams making it to the state finals from South Florida, set in 2019, could be accomplished again. As an added incentive this year (excluding 2A and 3A which will have to travel to Tallahassee), the state finals for 4A through 8A will be played in South Florida for the first time since 2006.

That means Miami Columbus, Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas, Miami Northwestern, Miami Central and Fort Lauderdale Cardinal Gibbons will have an opportunity to play in front of their home fans at DRV PNK Stadium in Fort Lauderdale.

On to this week’s state semifinal picks. All games are Friday at 7:30 unless otherwise noted.

▪ Class 8A state semifinal: Columbus (9-3) at Venice (12-1): In just his third season, David Dunn has quickly established himself as one of the top high school coaches and, following last week’s hard-fought win over Miami Palmetto, his Explorers are on the precipice of a second state title in three years with a Tri-County title sandwiched in between.

All of that said, Columbus faces a huge test on the road Friday night as Venice packs its stadium with passionate folks supporting a team that has been ranked No. 1 in 8A most of the season.

There are hardly any players left from that title team from two years ago but Dunn acknowledged one similarity — both Columbus teams started the season slowly and came on strong as the postseason approached. The task will still be a tall one for the Explorers who will need to play a perfect game to come away with the win. Call me a homer if you like but I think they will pull off the mild upset. BD’s Pick: Columbus 24-20.

▪ Class 7A state semifinal: Gainesville Buchholz (12-1) at St. Thomas Aquinas (12-1): The only thing similar between these two teams is their record and it ends right there.

I looked up Buchholz’s schedule this year, and it only played one team outside its area. That one team that represents their one loss? Cardinal Gibbons who beat the Bobcats on their home field in September. Another example of South Florida dominance against out-of-area teams.

This is also unchartered waters for a Buchholz program that last visited the state semis in 1995. Now they have to take on a team that flaunts a record 12 state championship banners and has now won 48 consecutive postseason home games dating to 2003. Anybody really think it won’t be 49 after Friday night?

A game like this is old hat for the Raiders, who should cruise to an easy win and get back to a place they are all too familiar with – the state title game. BD’s Pick: Aquinas 40-13.

▪ Class 6A state semifinal: Northwestern (10-3) at Tampa Jesuit (13-0): If there is one out-of-area team that has a legitimate claim to compete with South Florida teams, it’s Tampa Jesuit. The Tigers proved that early in the season when they stunned St. Thomas Aquinas 24-21, ruining the Raiders’ shot at a possible national championship.

This is also a team that has been pounding on the state title game door as this marks the Tigers’ sixth trip to the state semis in the last seven seasons. To say they are overdue would be an understatement.

Of course, that brings us to our Northwestern Bulls who, when I last checked, have scored a total of 177 points in their three playoff wins. If Jesuit faithful are nervous, they should be as Northwestern and head coach Max Edwards live for this kind of a challenge. Playing before a packed stadium full of wildly passionate and hostile fans, the Bulls will relish and embrace the role of underdogs.

This is probably an even bigger “homer” pick than Columbus but until an out-of-area team proves that it can slay one of the big dragons from South Florida on this kind of a big stage, I’m not budging. BD’s Pick: Northwestern 26-24.

▪ Class 5A state semifinal: Glen St. Mary Baker County (11-2) at Miami Central (10-2) at Traz Powell: Poor Baker County. The Wildcats are about to make the long trek from the Jacksonville area, and if they only knew what was in store for them.

After dropping their first two games of the season to nationally ranked teams (St. John Bosco and Bishop Gorman), Central has been mowing down everyone in its path ever since and Baker County will offer little resistance. The Rockets have easily beaten both American Heritage and Killian the last two weeks and Baker County is not anywhere close to either of those two programs. Add to that that the game is being played at their neighborhood home of Traz Powell, and the only way this game is not lopsided is if the Rockets the Wildcats for granted. But Roland Smith has been down the pike way too many times to allow this to happen. BD’s Pick: Central 38-7.

▪ Class 4A state semifinal: St. Pete Lakewood (10-2) at Cardinal Gibbons (9-2): Gibbons will need to be careful here. The Chiefs, as brilliant as their remarkable comeback was last week in rallying to beat Gulliver, burned up a great deal of physical and emotional energy in doing so. It’s possible they could come out a little flat.

I doubt it will matter as Matt DuBuc has proven himself to be one of the top high school coaches in the state, and Gibbons will have too many horses to give Lakewood any kind of an opening. It’s possible this one could be close in the first half but look for Gibbons to pull away and cruise to victory. BD’s Pick: Gibbons 34-17.

▪ Class 3A state semifinal: Tallahassee Florida High (11-1) at Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna (9-1), 7 p.m.: These teams met in the 3A state title game two years ago in Tallahassee, and the Seminoles hung tough before Chaminade pulled away to win it. There will be no such thing this Friday.

Playing arguably one of the toughest schedules in the nation, Chaminade is completely battle-tested and has been on a mission all season to get back to the state final and right a wrong. The wrong being a last-second loss to Jacksonville Trinity Christian a year ago that kept them from winning a fourth straight state title.

It’s time to get back to Tallahassee and start a new streak. BD’s Pick: Chaminade 38-12.

▪ Class 2A state semifinal: Hialeah Champagnat (9-2) at Naples First Baptist Academy (10-1): For a change, the Lions actually got pushed a little bit last week, not winning by their usual lopsided score as they had to outduel Fort Pierce John Carroll 38-28.

But the crazy part about this is that I wonder if the Lions, who rarely play a home playoff game and hosted Carroll at Monsignor Pace High School, are more comfortable playing on the road.

If that’s the case, they will be right in their element Friday night traveling take on a First Baptist Academy team and its vociferous fans.

First Academy will also take on a team in Champagnat that beat them 42-0 on that very same field in the playoffs a year ago. I’m not sure if Champagnat will win by 42 this time but the Lions are on the crest of a sixth straight trip to the state finals and another trip to Tallahassee. I seriously doubt if FBA is going to stand in their way. BD’s Pick: Champagnat 37-13.

▪ Last Week: 5-2. Postseason: 31-10. Season Overall: 370-81