Second round of state high school football playoff matchups nearly too close to call

Now that a lot of first-round mismatches are out of the way, it’s time to get down to the nitty-gritty of the high school playoffs in South Florida.

The much-anticipated second round, or regional semifinals and third round (regional finals), have traditionally given us the best matchups, and the next few weeks look awfully good.

It starts this week with Miami Central traveling to Plantation to take on American Heritage as the marquee matchup followed by a bunch of “coin flip” games where it’s tough to pick a winner.

One quick observation from last week.

Once again, another shining example of how high school football in Miami-Dade and Broward county is simply on a different level than the rest of the state showed last Friday.

That when a “mediocre” Plantation team, which barely made it into the tournament as a No. 8 seed, traveled to the west coast and smoked No. 1 seed and previously unbeaten Fort Myers Dunbar 44-20.

The Colonels, who wallowed in mediocrity for most of the season only because they play with other Broward titans like St. Thomas Aquinas, Dillard, Western and Gibbons, wound up being the only No. 8 seed to beat a top seed in the entire state — and did it easily.

More examples? Coconut Creek sent South Fort Myers back home with a 36-12 victory in the opposite 6A quarterfinal, Fort Lauderdale Stranahan traveled to the west coast and dispatched Estero 22-7 and Miami Northwestern dropped a 71-point barrage on poor Fort Myers.

These teams from outside the area put together nice seasons, but what they don’t realize is that they are just playing local teams from their area. Once they have to mess with anybody from South Florida, the separation in talent levels comes into clear focus. It’s a fate Naples might meet this week against Northwestern. More on that a few paragraphs down.

THURSDAY GAMES (at 7 p.m.)

▪ Region 4-8A semifinal — Deerfield Beach (9-2) vs. Palmetto (8-2), at Tropical Park: My first coin flip game as this one is tough to call. Deerfield Beach, with the resignation of its head coach, struggled early in the season, but the Bucks have come on strong in the second half.

Ditto Palmetto. After getting hit hard by graduation from last year’s state semifinal team, coach Mike Manasco put a lot of inexperienced players on the field early and the Panthers struggled. But the deeper the season went, the better things started to get. Thursday night we will see which team has improved the most. Will be shocked if this isn’t a one-possession game. BD’s pick: Palmetto 24-20.

▪ Region 4-5A semifinal — Stranahan (7-4) vs. Miami Killian (11-0), at Harris Field: Stranahan has had a nice season, which was made even nicer by nailing down its first postseason victory in 12 years by beating Estero on the road.

But the Dragons enter a new arena this week as they take on a Killian team that is the last unbeaten team in South Florida. With a schedule that wouldn’t necessarily scare anybody, the Cougars have been waiting all season for their shot at Central or American Heritage to prove themselves. Look for them to take care of business and get their shot next week. BD’s pick: Killian 35-13.

FRIDAY’S GAMES (at 7:30 p.m.)

▪ Region 4-5A semifinal — Central (8-2) at American Heritage (6-3): A postseason collision course between these powerhouse programs came in to clear view the minute Central dropped from 6A to 5A during the offseason. But nobody, despite both teams playing big-time challenging schedules, could have imagined that they would share five losses between them.

That is the case, but none of it matters now as this is simply a classic survive and advance scenario for a pair of defending state champions.

Nearly impossible to pick, this contest, like most postseason games, will come down to who makes the least amount of mistakes and whoever has the ball last might be the winner. After those two tough losses to nationally ranked St. John Bosco and Bishop Gorman to open the season, the Rockets have really surged. I will go with them in what should be a great game. BD’s pick: Central 27-24.

▪ Region 4-8A semifinal — Mimai Columbus (7-3) at Davie Western (9-2): Another great matchup and a rematch from a regional final two years ago. The Explorers prevailed in that game on their way to a state title, but top-seeded Western and head coach Adam Rackevich have been knocking on the door for a few years now. My hunch is that this might be their year to finally break through and win their first regional title.

The deciding factor might be the fact that the Wildcats have the best quarterback in Broward County in Collin Hurst who might be the difference in this game. BD’s pick: Western 26-21.

▪ Region 4-7A semifinal — Fort Lauderdale Dillard (10-1) at Homestead (9-1) at Harris Field: Another outstanding, even matchup that has one-possession game written all over it.

Both teams routed their first-round opponents last week and the winner likely will have to deal with Fort Lauderdale St. Thomas Aquinas in the regional final. Dillard came really close to knocking off the Raiders in a district showdown a few weeks back and really wants another shot.

But the Panthers will need to be at their very best on Friday as Philip Simpson has performed magic in reviving a Broncos program that was virtually nonexistent as recently as a few years ago. Heads Dillard, tails Homestead. It came up heads. BD’s pick: Dillard 23-21.

▪ Region 4-7A semifinal — Miramar (7-3) at St. Thomas Aquinas (10-1): Miramar got a nice come-from-behind win over Doral last week, but the Patriots are stepping up to a much bigger level this week.

The high bar at St. Thomas is measured by state titles and little else, and the Raiders should take care of business on their way to what they hope will be title No. 13. BD’s pick: Aquinas 38-13.

▪ Region 4-6A semifinal — Northwestern (8-3) at Naples (10-0): Here we go again. Just like Plantation, a South Florida team traveling to the west coast to take on an undefeated team.

I did my homework on this one. In six of the past nine years, Naples has met the end of its season against either Central or Northwestern. Never beaten either team and, with the exception of last year (losing by 10 to Central), the Golden Eagles haven’t come close in any of the games, losing by an average score of 43-18.

Maybe someday, perhaps even this Friday, Naples will finally break through that glass ceiling. But until they do, I’m not going against a trend like this. Taron Dickens threw for 417 yards and seven touchdowns against Fort Myers last week so the Bulls, after struggling (by their standards) for a good part of the season, are coming alive at the right time. BD’s pick: Northwestern 33-14 .

▪ Region 4-6A semifinal — Plantation (8-2) at Coconut Creek (9-2): After sneaking into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, Plantation took maximum advantage of its opportunity last week upsetting No. 1 seed Dunbar in Fort Myers while the Cougars also got a nice win over South Fort Myers. It has been 21 years since Plantation won two postseason games in the same year while Creek has only done it once (2006) so somebody is going to break a long drought on Friday. I will go with the home team. BD’s pick: Coconut Creek 28-23.

▪ Region 4-4A semifinal — Booker T. Washington (5-6) vs. Gulliver Prep. (7-1), at Tropical Park: It has been a long two-year wait for Gulliver as the pain of a last-second loss to BTW in 2019, and then have to watch the Tornadoes go on and win the state title, still lingers. The Raiders have been patiently waiting for their chance to right that wrong, and I expect them to take maximum advantage on Friday.

Don’t be fooled by Booker T’s record as those six losses have come to Killian (twice), Northwestern, Central, Edison and Homestead so expect this one to be much closer than anybody thinks. But in the end, I think the Raiders prevail to set up a much-anticipated regional final showdown with Cardinal Gibbons. BD’s pick: Gulliver 30-21.

▪ Region 4-4A semifinal — Fort Lauderdale Pine Crest (7-2) at Cardinal Gibbons (7-2): Pine Crest got a nice upset win over Miami LaSalle last week but while they may have the same record as Gibbons, that’s where the comparisons end. Gibbons beat Pine Crest 55-7 on Oct. 8, and I expect a similar result here. BD’s pick: Gibbons 42-10.

▪ Region 4-3A semifinal — Miami Edison (7-4) at Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna (7-1): Edison might hang in there for a while but Chaminade might be the best team in the entire state, regardless of classification and should pull away to an easy win. BD’s pick: Chaminade 41-16.

▪ Region 4-3A semifinal — West Palm Beach Cardinal Newman (8-3) at Miami Florida Christian (8-1): A terrific job by FC coach Joe Burmeister this season as Patriots nearly went unbeaten. Newman will easily be the best team they have faced this year, and neither team is going any further than Chaminade, but I think the Patriots will pull out a close one at home. BD’s pick: Florida Christian 31-26.

▪ Region 4-2A semifinal — Hialeah Champagnat (7-2) at Belle Glade Glades Day (9-1): Even though they are the higher seed, the Lions could not find a local venue to host the game so instead, they will do what they do best anyway — hit the road. Won’t make any difference where they play this one, Champy kids are the ultimate “road warriors” and will coast. BD’s pick: Champagnat 37-9.

▪ Region 4-2A semifinal — Fort Pierce John Carroll (6-2) vs. Hollywood Avant Garde Academy (8-0) at Lockhart Park: Avant Garde is kind of a mystery off-the-radar team that coach Danny Luque has done a nice job with. Expect AG to pick up a win here and get a shot at Champagnat next week. BD’s pick: Avant Garde 27-21.

▪ Last Week: 17-3. Season Overall: 356-74.

Bill Daley can be reached at:billd@curtispub.net.Follow him on Twitter: @Billykid11.