Defending champ Florida is 3-1, but has a problem behind three-point line

These days, when attending a Florida basketball game, you should wear athletic attire.

As No. 10 Florida has shot 23.5% from beyond the arc through four games — a rate no preseason top-three team has sunk to in the past two decades — the anticipatory rise of the Gators’ crowd with each shot has become more of a squat exercise. You’re going to sweat. Not to mention, if this shooting malpractice continues, coach Todd Golden would be among the first to look for subs from the crowd.

“I don’t think dancing around any sort of shooting slump or trying to band-aid it is the solution,” Golden said last week. “[We’re getting] pretty good looks.”

The core of Florida’s issue is difficult to pinpoint. While the Gators are currently experiencing an unprecedented shooting slump for any school, it stands when compared to the preseason top-ranked teams of yesteryear. Achieving a 31% three-point percentage in the 82-68 win against Miami on Sunday was an improvement, but the larger concern is the volume of attempts, which sets this Florida team apart from other slow-starting teams in recent seasons.

Last season, as Florida won its third national championship, the team took at least 21 three-pointers in each of its final four games, making better than 37% in all but the championship game against Houston’s elite defense. In contrast, with this year’s three-big starting lineup, Florida’s now averaging 29.5 attempts per game with a three-point rate in the top third of the country, per toRvik.

Golden is adamant that the types of shots Florida’s getting aren’t the problem. In a metrics-dependent program, Golden said, the projections support Florida’s rate of deeper attempts. However, with a rotation that only features one player who shot better than 35% from three-point range last year, it’s hard to believe this distribution is favorable.

“I’m not worried about the shooting,” Golden said, trying to ease concerns. “Imagine how good we’re going to be once these guys start making shots. … Our ceiling is really high, and I think our floor is really high for us to beat a team like Miami by 14 without getting any threes.”

Golden’s perspective is exactly why the alarm bells aren’t ringing quite yet in Gainesville. The Gators are 3-1 with Merrimack up next on Friday, despite their struggles. And last season, Florida finished November shooting 32.9% from three-point range (179th nationally). It closed the season shooting 35.6%.

So while not nearly as disastrous, there’s a precedent for a small sample size, like such, to be unrepresentative of a team’s final product. The season is long. Schools ebb and flow into their culminating form. The hitch is that Florida is dependent on an untried product.

Walter Clayton Jr., Will Richard and Alijah Martin, Florida’s leading trio of scorers last season, had all shot above 39% from three-point range on more than 100 attempts in at least one prior season. The entirety of Florida’s current rotation has never done so. Besides, the one who shot above 35% last season has been among Florida’s worst shooters this year.

Xaivian Lee, a transfer from Princeton who averaged 16.9 points per game last year on 36.6% from three-point range, is 6 for 34. After taking 5.4 attempts per game last season, he’s now taking 8.5.

Yet he’s not alone in the drop-off. Urban Klavzar, who entered the year as the second-best shooter (by percentage) in Florida’s rotation, was 3 of 14 prior to knocking down four three-pointers against Miami.

“I’m just trying to be confident every day,” he said after the game. “The work that we put in has just got to show every night, and you just got to stay confident and take those shots.”

Golden, similarly, explained that Florida’s shooting issues may be the product of mental factors, more than anything else. After last season’s run, the expectations surrounding Florida’s program feel greater, rightfully, than in past years. Golden’s staff emphasized during the preseason the steps it had taken to ensure outside noise wouldn’t percolate into players’ mind-sets. But when Drake name-drops you in a song, it’s hard for your shot to be at the top of your mind.

“They’re searching a little bit and disappointed,” Golden said. “The circumstances have changed for everybody. And, I think for them, it’s a mental toughness thing. It’s just pushing through and really kind of pouring into process over result.”

The results will continue to matter, though, as Florida faces four consecutive power conference opponents starting on Thanksgiving. Beating the likes of No. 5 Duke or No. 3 UConn will not occur at Florida’s current rate.

Thomas Haugh, Florida’s only player shooting above 35% from three-point range, explained that the team isn’t too concerned. This, too, shall pass: “We’re a good three-point shooting team.”

But now it’s time to prove it.