Billy Napier won’t let go of the Florida Gators’ offense, but how bad is it?
Are you still the team’s primary playcaller?
“Yes,” Florida coach Billy Napier said without hesitation.
Any thoughts of giving that up?
“No.”
And then nothing. No additions, no other thoughts, no arguments. In an unnerving way, his abbreviated response encapsulated the state of Florida football well after its upset loss to USF 18-16 Saturday. A program dissolving into a world where what occurs on the field doesn’t suffer consequence, and where adjustments are viewed as extraordinary.
His unwillingness to shift and Florida’s subsequently rancid offense came to a predictable inflection point last week. But now? A four-game stretch against top 16 opponents. Which is why Florida football’s weekly Monday morning press conference became a spectacle. Reporters ventured from far and wide to see the fourth-year coach — who’s 20-20 to this point — explain his way around one of UF’s worst losses this century.
Napier’s adamant that the playcalling isn’t an issue. It’s all technical. When quarterback DJ Lagway threw an incompletion on first down with under three minutes left, leading 16-15, the problem wasn’t choosing to pass instead of draining the clock.
“We can coach better. We can play better,” Napier said. “I think that the players make mistakes.”
But frats paint their houses with messages like “Fire Napier,” while a depressive illness, deemed the “USFlu,” has overtaken many UF students, all blaming Napier.
His seat is unquestionably hot.
So we set out to compare Napier’s offense — which he won’t let go of — to past UF iterations and other teams around the state. The numbers paint an image of middling consistency.
“I think the emphasis with the players is the first way we win if you don’t beat yourself,” Napier said. “What are we going to do with the lessons that we learned?”
After putting up Florida’s lowest total against a Group of 5 team this century, it’s easy to point towards the broad concept of scoring. As an offensive coach, each of Napier’s UF squads has averaged either 26 or 27 points, typically good for around 70th nationally.
This season, the average points per game is 35.5, but this is inflated by Florida’s 55-0 win against Long Island (an FCS opponent) in Week 1. Last year, however, Florida averaged 26.36 points per game against Power 4 teams. Facing No. 3 LSU and No. 5 Miami the next two weeks, Florida’s scoring consistency will be tested.
Two weeks ago, among the state’s football powers — No. 10 Florida State, No. 5 Miami and Florida — the Gators were expected to have the top offense. However, Miami and FSU have already surpassed UF in scoring, with FSU currently fifth nationally at 54 points per game.
“It’s frustrating. We’ve had that taste in our mouth before,” tight end Hayden Hansen said. “You saw last year how we flipped that narrative down that last four-game stretch. And basically what it comes down to now is we gotta do it a whole lot sooner.”
But that sentiment might be the issue, sparked by the final four games of 2024, when Lagway assumed the starting role and UF upset No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 21 LSU. Even during that four-game streak, Florida only averaged 28.75 points per game. The signs were plastered everywhere.
What’s most telling is Florida’s ability to capitalize in the red zone. The Gators have a higher scoring percentage (90.9) than FSU, Miami or No. 18 USF, but they’re the only team from the group that has to settle for field goals more than 25% of the time.
On Saturday, Florida had three visits to the red zone and only returned with one touchdown. If that pace continues over the next month, Napier will have a significantly worse rate this year than any of past coaches Dan Mullen, Jim McElwain and Will Muschamp had. Each of them was fired with a winning record.
Florida’s offensive efficiency by situation. Fan criticism has been primarily focused on how predictable Napier’s down-by-down decisions are. Screen, run, pass. And it seems opponents have caught on.
Out of 134 FBS teams, Florida is 130th in the number of tackles for loss allowed (18). When running back Jadan Baugh is handed the ball or when Brown III catches a screen pass with only one blocker, it frequently appears the defense had joined Lagway in the huddle. Miami and FSU have combined for fewer tackles for loss (13). No other Florida coach since Urban Meyer has seen his offense stymied at that rate.
“We had a couple communication errors,” Florida center Jake Slaughter said, detailing the issues that plagued the Gators’ backfield Saturday. “We can communicate better as a group, as an offense. I think that there’s no finger point.”
With eight ranked opponents remaining on Florida’s schedule, this all might be moot. Napier’s teams time and time again find just enough to remain competitive when the coach feels like he’s slipping. But there hasn’t been a moment in two decades when Florida has been so massively outpaced on offense by its in-state foes, which matters to the UF officials employing Napier. Nor has another Florida coach survived with his lack of success.
Statistically, Napier is dancing around landmines.
This story was originally published September 10, 2025 at 12:44 PM.