Sweet 16, ranked: Our view of the remaining NCAA Tournament games, from top to bottom
The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, quite frankly, sas a dud. All the No. 1 seeds got through to Week 2. So did all the No. 2 seeds, all the No. 3 seeds, two No. 4 seeds and one No. 5 seed.
This probably shouldn’t have been much of a surprise to anyone who’s paying attention. This is a season in which the top eight overall seeds were never in doubt. It was a season when the gap between the top 10 or 15 teams and the rest of the country never felt wider. This season always felt defined by a small handful of teams with a real chance to win a national championship.
It all made the first few days of March Madness a little bit of a bust. It also should make the final four rounds a heavyweight fight.
There are no bad games in the Sweet 16. There probably won’t be any bad games in the Elite Eight either, so let’s get excited for regional weekend of the NCAA Tourney by ranking the eight great games set to take place Thursday and Friday:
8. No. 1-seed Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 4-seed Florida State Seminoles
Gonzaga has been perhaps the most impressive team in the NCAA Tournament so far. The Bulldogs were the only No. 1 seed to not struggle with its No. 16 seed, then they handled the No. 9-seed Baylor Bears for an 83-71 win.
As good as Florida State looked in its 90-62 rout of the No. 12-seed Murray State Racers, Gonzaga is a tough matchup for the Seminoles. With All-American forwards Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke, the Bulldogs might have the best frontcourt in the country and are one of the teams best equipped to handle Florida State’s comical size.
If Seminoles star power forward Mfiondu Kabengele is the best sixth man left in the Tourney, Gonzaga might have the second best with star forward Killian Tillie. The Bulldogs even have freshman center Filip Petrusev, a former top-100 prospect in the 247Sports.com composite rankings, buried on the bench if they need some extra size.
Gonzaga can potentially negate Florida State’s greatest strength, then roll out a dynamic backcourt with Josh Perkins and Zach Norvell. The Bulldogs might have too many options for the Seminoles to handle.
7. No. 2-seed Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 3-seed Houston Cougars
This is assuming All-American power forward P.J. Washington is back in the lineup for Kentucky, which is far from certain at this point. If he returns, the Wildcats just have too many skilled forwards for Houston to handle, especially with senior Reid Travis finding a groove in March.
The Cougars had something of a statement win Sunday with a 74-59 blowout of the No. 11-seed Ohio State Buckeyes, but Kentucky will be far and away the toughest opponent that this American Athletic Conference team has faced this season. Houston simply doesn’t have talent like the Wildcats, especially if freshman guards Ashton Hagans and Keldon Johnson play to their potential.
6. No. 1-seed Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 4-seed Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech, you might have heard, beat Duke in February. You also might have heard All-American power forward Zion Williamson didn’t play for the Blue Devils. Then someone probably made sure to tell you Hokies guard Justin Robinson didn’t play, either.
Virginia Tech certainly can beat Duke and actually has some of the perimeter talent match up with the Blue Devils — shooting guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker could be a lottery pick in the 2019 NBA draft, just like Duke wings R.J. Barrett and Cameron Reddish — but Williamson is such a difference-maker it’s hard not to put a nice-sized asterisk next to the Hokies’ win. The Blue Devils are also well equipped to handle Robinson with freshman point guard Tre Jones a lockdown perimeter defender.
5. No. 2-seed Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 3-seed Purdue Boilermakers
If Tennessee plays like it did in the first half and overtime of its 83-77 win against the No. 10-seed Iowa Hawkeyes, the Volunteers won’t have much trouble with Purdue. If they play like they did in the second half, All-American point guard Carsen Edwards could lead an upset.
Edwards’ matchup with Tennessee point guard Jordan Bone could be critical. The Boilermakers tend to go as Edwards goes and the Volunteers run deeper in terms of scoring options, with All-American power forward Grant Williams, small forward Admiral Schofield, shooting guard Jordan Bowden, guard Lamonte Turner and Bone all averaging more than 10 points per game.
4. No. 1-seed North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 4-seed Auburn Tigers
North Carolina proved its first-half scare from the No. 16-seed Iona Gaels in the first round was nothing to write home about by pounding the No. 9-seed Washington Huskies for a 82-59 win in the second round. Auburn made a second-round statement of its own, though, blowing out the No. 4-seed Kansas Jayhawks 89-75 on Saturday.
Star forward Chuma Okeke will be key for the Tigers. He could be the answer to senior forward UNC’s Luke Maye, or small forwards Nassir Little or Cameron Johnson, if one of them start to get hot. Star center Austin Wiley has a chance to be a mismatch problem, too, since the Tar Heels’ tallest starter is only 6-foot-9.
Ultimately, the result could come down to guard play. Auburn is loaded with capable, shot-happy perimeter players, but North Carolina will have the best of the bunch with freshman forward Coby White, who’s having a breakout March.
3. No. 2-seed Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 3-seed LSU Tigers
Much has been made about what has happened to LSU coach Will Wade — he’s suspended and away from the team in the tourney — but people have apparently forgotten why he’s suspended.
LSU is one of the most quietly talented teams in the country. Center Naz Reid could be a first-round pick. LSU’s backcourt is a pick-your-poison of former blue-chip guard recruits and the least-touted of the bunch — Skylar Mays, just a three-star prospect out of high school — swung two first-weekend games with his three-point shooting.
Standing in the way of an improbable Elite Eight run for a team with a fill-in coach is Michigan State, All-American guard Cassius Winston and coach Tom Izzo, whose March reputation precedes himself.
2. No. 1-seed Virginia Cavaliers vs. No. 12-seed Oregon Ducks
After a first-round scare from the No. 16-seed Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs, Virignia took care of business and beat the No. 9-seed Oklahoma Sooners 63-51. The Cavaliers have run into trouble with more athletic teams before, though, and Oregon fits the bill, even as the lowest-seeded team in the Sweet 16.
Ducks post player Kenny Wooten has been a breakout star thanks to his alley-oops and blocked shots, and small forward Louis King is another lanky athlete who could find himself matched up with All-American forward De’Andre Hunter. In theory, the Cavaliers’ elite backcourt of Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome should be too poised to fold against a heavy underdog, but, well, you know.
1. No. 2-seed Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 3-seed Texas Tech Red Raiders
OK, this might be the matchup least likely to produce the national champion, but it also simply looks like it could be the best game of the regional semifinals. Texas Tech has the No. 1 defense in the country, according to the Pomeroy College Basketball Rankings. Michigan is No. 2. The Red Raiders have an elite offensive player in All-American shooting guard Jarrett Culver. The Wolverines have one in freshman small forward Ignas Brazdeikis.
Styles make fights and these two teams’ styles should make a fight that comes down to the wire.