More chatter, lobbying, fallout, things to consider as UM awaits playoff decision
A six-pack of Miami Hurricanes notes, as the world breathlessly await Tuesday’s penultimate College Football Playoff rankings (7 p.m., ESPN):
▪ If the committee foolishly leaves Miami behind Notre Dame, it would likely do so because of a factor that isn’t even supposed to be considered, a trivial issue that isn’t mentioned in the CFP’s official criteria for determining playoff teams.
Neither “bad losses” nor “losses to teams now outside the Top 25” appears anywhere in the committee’s written criteria for picking playoff teams.
The CFP only began mentioning that last month, in explaining why Notre Dame (which lost to top-10 teams UM and Texas A&M) has been ranked ahead of Miami (which lost to Louisville and SMU) even though the Canes won the head-to-head meeting 27-24.
So the CFP’s only possible justification for keeping 10-2 Notre Dame ahead of 10-2 Miami — when UM owns the head-to-head and defeated three of their four common opponents by larger margins — would be citing an argument for which there’s no written precedent, or grounds, to consider.
The committee’s credibility would be irreparably damaged if Miami (currently rated 12th) doesn’t jump No. 9 Notre Dame this week.
So what are UM’s chances of making the playoffs if the Canes remain No. 12?
Because room must be created for two conference champions not accounted for in last week’s CFP top 10, Miami’s hopes naturally would rest on No. 10 Alabama (10-2) losing to Georgia (11-1) in the Southeastern Conference championship (4 p.m. Saturday, ABC) and No. 11 BYU (11-1) losing to Texas Tech (12-0) in the Big 12 championship (noon Saturday, ABC).
But it might take lopsided losses by the Crimson Tide and Cougars on Saturday, because the committee has said, on multiple occasions in the past, that they don’t like to penalize teams that lose their conference championship game.
Despite that, keep in mind that teams that have lost their conference championship game typically fall in the final rankings.
But aside from UM surprisingly jumping No. 8 Oklahoma (or jumping Alabama or BYU before their conference title games), there’s a third possibility that could create a path for UM, albeit unlikely:
If Duke (7-5) beats Virginia (10-2) in Saturday night’s ACC championship, and if two non-Power 4 teams are ranked ahead of Duke in the final CFP rankings, then no ACC team would automatically qualify for the playoffs.
(Remember, the five highest-ranked conference champions qualify for the CFP, not the champions of the Power 4 conferences -- SEC, Big 10, Big 12, ACC -- and one other.)
So if Duke narrowly beats Virginia, the committee would need to compare Duke against the winner of Friday’s Sun Belt championship game between James Madison (11-1) and Troy (8-4) and Friday’s winner of the American Athletic conference championship game between North Texas (11-1) vs. Tulane (10-2), in addition to other Group of 4 teams with resumes that are less compelling than Tulane’s or JMU’s.
Only two of those teams (among Duke if it beats Virginia and the AAC and Sun Belt championship game winners) would get a playoff berth.
Because Tulane was 24th in the latest CFP rankings, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Green Wave remain ahead of Duke if both win their conference championships.
So if Duke and James Madison win, the committee would have an interesting choice between the two.
The CFP committee said that James Madison’s schedule lacks the strength required for a top-25 ranking. But would the CFP take a potentially 8-5 Duke team over a potentially 12-1 JMU team?
If the committee opted for James Madison, that could help Miami for this reason:
Though the ACC would still receive a share of playoff money even without a team in the field, it would not receive additional participation bonuses (as much as $20 million per school) and performance-based bonuses. Here’s how the participation bonuses work: A school that participates in the CFP would receive $4 million for the first round, $4 million for making the quarterfinals; $6 million for semifinals and $6 million for the title game. So a school that advances from the first round to the title game would pocket $20 million.
Do you think the committee would want to deal with the angry fallout of an ACC school not making it? Seems unlikely.
The 12-team playoff field will be announced at noon Sunday on ESPN.
▪ There has more lobbying during the past 48 hours than you even see in the tobacco industry, including reasonable remarks from UM coach Mario Cristobal and athletic director Dan Radakovich.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis joined in on Monday with this post on X:
“Will the CFP committee follow or ignore its own stated selection criteria?”
He then listed the stated criteria, including strength of schedule, head-to-head and comparative outcomes of common opponents and “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key coaches and players.”
▪ Former NBC political director and Canes fan Chuck Todd posted, on X, “Looks like both ND and Miami will get in based on this criteria because Ole Miss has no offensive coaches left to coach their dynamic offense. Seems like if this is a TV show then Ole Miss is like FSU 2023, they lost their star attraction [the head coach] and are no longer expected to be competitive.”
But committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said 11-1 Mississippi, which lost Lane Kiffin to LSU, cannot be penalized before the committee sees how the Rebels play without Kiffin. And Mississippi won’t play another game without Kiffin before the playoffs.
▪ The Canes, in making their case for a playoff spot, are winning considerable support in the national media, aside from ESPN’s Joey Galloway, who remains blatantly anti-Miami in ways that raise eyebrows, such as asserting that the Canes’ late touchdown against Virginia Tech shouldn’t be considered by the committee because it came in garbage time, and giving the incorrect score of UM’s win against Syracuse and saying Notre Dame deserves a playoff bid over Miami because the Irish has been better from “Week 2” on, as if that’s such magical cut-off point.
ESPN No. 2 analyst Greg McElroy said either way, the Canes “have the most talented roster by a mile in the ACC and not playing in the ACC Championship Game is a real gut punch to Mario Cristobal because their fate now lies in the hands of the CFP committee and that committee has not shown them a lot of love.”
▪ We’ve questioned the Atlantic Coast Conference in the past for its lack of foresight, and the tiebreaker that awarded 8-5 Duke a conference championship berth over 10-2 Miami is the latest example.
The fact the Blue Devils’ ACC opponents had a better record than Miami’s gave Duke the tiebreaker over the Canes. And while that’s a common third or fourth or fifth tiebreaker traditionally in college sports, this is a different era, and the ACC should have had the foresight last year to adopt the rule that the American Athletic Conference implemented:
In a multiteam tiebreaker scenario, the AAC’s rules state that the highest-ranked team in the CFP will be awarded a spot in the championship game if that team doesn’t lose in the final weekend of play.
When the Big 10 poached Oregon, Washington, Southern Cal and UCLA from the Pac-12, we asked why the ACC didn’t have the foresight to do that and create a football-only Atlantic/Pacific league that would have dramatically raised the TV revenue for its member schools and strengthened the conference immeasurably.
▪ Among developments reported on recruiting-oriented websites as we close in on the three-day early signing period that begins Wednesday:
On3.com says Miami is trending to beat out Wisconsin for Louisville (Kentucky) St. Xavier four-star linebacker Karsten Bursch, a former Louisville commitment…
Per Canesport, Auburn is making a late run at West Boca High four-star running back Javian Mallory.
But 247 Sports’ Gaby Urrutia, who’s plugged into recruiting, predicts that Mallory and others Canes commits who are being aggressively pursued (edge players Jordan Campbell and Ashari Charles) will stick with Miami.
UM has 29 nonbinding commitments, and its class is rated eighth by On3.com and 10th by 247 Sports.
This story was originally published December 1, 2025 at 5:30 PM.
