The case for and against UM in playoff bid. Where things stand entering Tuesday’s big news
Fresh after squandering a 21-0 lead in Syracuse and losing a game that it needed to win to advance to the conference championship game, the Miami Hurricanes now must rely on the help of others to make the 12-team College Football Playoffs.
In order to make the playoffs, the Hurricanes need:
1). SMU to beat Clemson in the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game on Saturday night in Charlotte, North Carolina, a result which would give the Tigers a fourth loss and likely eliminate them as competition for UM and others for an at-large bid.
2). Hope the CFP committee ranks Miami (10-2) ahead of a trio of three-loss Southeastern Conference teams (Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi) that likely will be competing with UM for the final playoff spot if SMU beats Clemson. Missouri also went 9-3, but its resume isn’t as impressive as the aforementioned three-loss SEC teams.
The playoff field will be announced on ESPN from noon to 4 p.m. Sunday, but UM’s chances will become clearer, at least to an extent, on Tuesday night when the CFP committee announces its new rankings.
If the committee ranks Alabama, South Carolina or Mississippi ahead of Miami in its Tuesday night unveiling, then the Hurricanes’ chances of making the playoffs would be remote, because none of those four teams play another game.
UM must hope that the committee places UM higher than Associated Press voters did in Sunday’s AP poll, which had Miami 14th, Alabama 11th, South Carolina 13th and Mississippi 15th.
Keep in mind that last week’s CFP rankings had Miami sixth, while AP voters placed UM eighth.
Where UM is ranked by the committee on Tuesday (7 p.m., ESPN) is critically important because 11 of the 12 playoff spots seem secure: SEC teams Georgia (10-2), Texas (11-1) and Tennessee (10-2); Big 10 teams Oregon (12-0), Penn State (11-1), Ohio State (10-2) and Indiana (11-1); Notre Dame (11-1); the winner of the SMU-Clemson ACC title game; the winner of the Big 12 title game between Arizona State and Iowa State, which are both 10-2; the highest ranked Group of 5 winner (likely the winner of the Mountain West title game because Boise State, which is 11-1, and UNLV, which is 10-2).
That’s 11 teams in the playoffs. The 12th spot likely would go to SMU (11-1) if Clemson (9-3) beats the Mustangs in the ACC title game to clinch the conference’s automatic bid.
If SMU beats Clemson, then UM and three three-loss SEC teams would be the top contenders for the final bid. BYU (10-2) and Miami would be the only two-loss Power 4 teams in the mix for that final spot, but the Cougars getting in over Miami and the SEC teams would seem highly unlikely.
If the Canes hadn’t lost 42-38 to Syracuse on Saturday, Miami would be playing SMU in the ACC Championship, with the winner getting a first-round bye and the loser very likely snagging a playoff spot.
Instead, ESPN’s college football playoff predictor gives Miami a 24 percent chance to make the playoffs, with Alabama at 30 percent, South Carolina 21 and Mississippi 3 percent.
Already, the lobbying has begun. Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin made the case for his team in a stats-driven social media post but concluded: “Clearly Ole Miss should be in the playoff over Alabama, but Bama is the bigger brand and more than likely will get in over Ole Miss.”
When the committee weighs where to rank UM, Alabama and South Carolina, these would be some of the factors in play for Miami:
THE CASE FOR MIAMI IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON
Unlike the trio of three-loss SEC teams, Miami lost only twice….
The Canes’ two losses were narrow — a five-point defeat at Georgia Tech (which nearly knocked off Georgia on Friday) and the four-point loss in Syracuse, which had the nation’s top passing offense.
ESPN’s Heather Dinich has Miami in the playoffs because “this selection committee likes this offense and Cam Ward. They like close losses. I just have a feeling selection committee chair Warde Manuel is going to talk about those close losses. They already referenced that with that [UM] loss to Georgia Tech. So the Canes to me are still in, at least for right now.”..
While Miami lost to teams that finished 7-5 (Georgia Tech) and 9-3 (Syracuse), Alabama lost by five to a 6-6 Vanderbilt team and by 21 to a 6-6 Oklahoma team. Alabama lost by seven points to Tennessee, a 10-2 team that assuredly will make the playoffs…
South Carolina lost to LSU, Alabama and Mississippi, and the margin of loss against the Rebels (27-3) was far worse than any Miami loss...
And ESPN tweeted this Monday: Miami is 4-2 against bowl eligible teams on the road, while Alabama is 1-3.
THE CASE AGAINST MIAMI IF SMU BEATS CLEMSON
The Canes don’t have a victory against a top 25 team, unlike the trio of three-loss SEC teams.
Alabama beat Georgia and South Carolina and Missouri.
South Carolina beat Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson.
Mississippi had lopsided wins against South Carolina (27-3) and Georgia (28-10)....
The ACC went 9-17 against teams from the Big 10, SEC and Big 12, while the SEC went 13-7 in those games, per ESPN’s David Hale…
Hale also noted that Miami is 3-2 against Power 4 teams with winning records, compared with 4-1 for Alabama…
In the area of “strength of record” — a statistical measure that indicates how impressive a team’s win-loss record is considering the difficulty of their schedule — UM is 14th, Alabama 10th and South Carolina 11th.
“This team won 10 football games against some really good opponents, and this last game came all the way down to the wire,” Mario Cristobal said in making UM’s case for the playoffs. “Our two losses are one-possession losses, less than a touchdown. That makes us one of the better teams in the country.”
SENIOR BOWL INVITES
UM junior tackle/guard Jalen Rivers and junior tight end Elijah Arroyo accepted invitations to the Senior Bowl.
Rivers played 26 games for UM and was All ACC second-team last season.
After missing most of the previous two seasons with a knee injury, Arroyo had 31 catches for 526 yards and six touchdowns this season.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. has Arroyo rated the No. 2 fullback/H-back in the draft but has dropped Rivers out of his top 10 draft-eligible guards in recent weeks.
This story was originally published December 2, 2024 at 10:42 AM.
